Global Macro Trading Journal

[Daal]

Its tempting to buy those Fed futures after the Bernanke speech. They haven't rallied much, but I'm still not sure there is a lot of profit potential compared to the risks

Bernanke seems to be giving the OT2 signal, EFF will rise

 

[Ghost of Cutten]

So, any thoughts for the dollar here? Improving econ data vs lowering risk aversion, and perma-dove central banker. One has to wonder, if the dollar can't rally when the economy is improving, Europe is in the toilet, and there are wobbles in Asia, when will it rally?

 

[ammo]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/455381-market-tremors-signal-that-something-wicked-this-way-comes

 

[Specterx]

Quote from ralph00:

QE3 Hello!

Same as the SQE hints a few weeks ago. Presumably somebody at the Fed eventually realized that market crashes (or end of rallies) are correlated with the stimulus being withdrawn. After puzzling over it for weeks and passing around a dozen research papers, they decided that merely talking about stimulus could be just as effective as the real thing.

I suspect they'll trap themselves into further actual easing at the April meeting - or risk, god forbid, disappointing the markets.

 

[Specterx]

Quote from Specterx:

I shorted AMZN today near the close at 191.9, with a stop at 197.45. 2.9% risk on the position.

Hat tip to those who posted about it, might be early on this but looks good technically and the R:R is unusually high: nearly 6x to my minimum expected target around 160 and 13x to my furthest target around 120.5.

If it breaks down on the weekly I'll try to double up.

Stopped out this morning, going to keep monitoring, most likely scenario to take another crack is a breakdown on the weekly chart.

 

[ammo]

amzn, pullback to 94 or rally to that deep cleave at 06 with a brief stop at 02,linear regression line is also 94

 

[Debaser82]

Lets see if there are any real global macro guys here... I own a miner in Mali where there is a militairy coup going on.... Is that a reason to sell?

 

[ammo]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mali says half the population makes less than a $1.25 a day,and there is no constitution as of mar 22,has your stock dropped or halted trading

 

[Debaser82]

So a lot of cheap labour that's good right...

No constitution is a bit of a downer...

http://www.google.com/finance?q=TSE:AVR

I bought it a year ago at 1.40 its at 1.23 today.

It dropped this monday from 1.40 to 1 and rebounded the same day to 1.20...

 

[Ghost of Cutten]

Quote from Specterx:

Stopped out this morning, going to keep monitoring, most likely scenario to take another crack is a breakdown on the weekly chart.

What about shorting it hedged with equal $ amount of long QQQQ? Then you isolate the bet against Amazon itself, and hedge out your market risk.