Global Macro Trading Journal

HKD at 7.75, close to ceilling. Fed says rates will stay low till late 2014. HK elections are in March(I believe)

I won't be selling my hkds anytime soon. If it touches the ceilling they will be forced to so QE. There is a chance they won't be so happy and will make a move
 
I started a new thread in the forex subforum but as the HKD peg is mentioned often here, I'll ask again :

What do you think would be the less costly way to take a long position USDHKD with IB, aiming at the pair to leave its 7.75bottom range over the next few months. As the upside is very limited to cover the carry cost, is there a better way than to use margin on spot forex ?
 
Quote from luisHK:

I started a new thread in the forex subforum but as the HKD peg is mentioned often here, I'll ask again :

What do you think would be the less costly way to take a long position USDHKD with IB, aiming at the pair to leave its 7.75bottom range over the next few months. As the upside is very limited to cover the carry cost, is there a better way than to use margin on spot forex ?
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I use the pair because I don't think there is other alternative. I'm not sure the upside is limited compared to the cost. I calculated my Oanda cost at a bit over 0.5% a year and my upside estimate is 25%. That's 50-1
There is the possbility that I close the trade at a capital loss(with the pair still inside the band but above the point I got short which is 7.79), this would increase the cost to maybe a bit over 1%

These are nice odds. I certainty think the chances of a reval given the Fed 2014 pledge combined with the peg being close to being tested plus their elections are higher than whats being implied by the market
 
Daal, i'm thinking about going long USDHKD whereas it seems you're talking about shorting it. The upside is maximum at 7.85 and probably less.
 
Quote from luisHK:

Daal, i'm thinking about going long USDHKD whereas it seems you're talking about shorting it. The upside is maximum at 7.85 and probably less.
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Ah I see
 
Quote from Daal:

GMCR down 4%
NFLX up 21%

Where are the anti-tilson ETF idiots?
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Laying on a beach for the last 2 weeks.

The guy has had a good run for 3 weeks in 1 stock, and all of a sudden he's Bernard Baruch? Please. You diminish yourself with your silliness.

Do keep posting when you're shorting euros. You've proven an excellent contrary indicator.
 
I konw Dhpar wrote it is easy to build a short CHF position but i'm not keen buying on schatz (or more precisely I'm not familiar with the risks associated to it) and am already with a significant positive EUR cash balance on my IB account, largely because of beeing long EURCHF and also because I've had for a while a positive EUR balance.

Any advice on how to invest those euro to get back the cost of carry of the EURCHF position (1% up to 1Mil and .50% over it), without incurring much risk nor important transaction costs ?
 
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