Global Macro Trading Journal

[Martinghoul]

Quote from ralph00:
Could this mean the ECB could make a big (if temporary) impact with relatively small buys?

Given they're pretty much the only buyer arnd and there's a LOT of sellers, that's, unfortunately, not the case. They sure wish it were.

 

[gmst]

Quote from Martinghoul:

Yep, nobody wants to trade, as these mkts become more and more dysfunctional and illiquid. Dealers widen their bid/offer, 'cause they have no appetite to warehouse any of this stuff (given the recent Jefferies accident, who can blame them). The real money community are scared sh1tless, so, unless they're selling in a total panic, you won't see them. The fast money punters don't want to get involved, 'cause liquidity is so crap. So, yeah, among other factors, it's a function of high volatility and uncertainty.

thanks that was a cool explanation

 

[Debaser82]

Quote from ralph00:



As an apartment building and commercial space owner

Ralph, doesnt the illiquidity of real estate bothers you?

I don't know the exact specifics of how these things go but over here selling real estate might take 6 months before you see your money.

A long time in today's circumstances no....

 

[ralph00]

Quote from Debaser82:

Ralph, doesnt the illiquidity of real estate bothers you?

I don't know the exact specifics of how these things go but over here selling real estate might take 6 months before you see your money.

A long time in today's circumstances no....

Well, I'm not selling anything at the moment and have no real plans to sell. Sales tend to go very quickly if the price is right and financing is available - not the case right now, but there's no regulatory reason or government law standing in the way of moving stuff fast (which I'm assuming you're referring to).

It's been a good business I would recommend to nearly anyone if done the right way.

 

[Daal]

Quote from Martinghoul:

Yep, nobody wants to trade, as these mkts become more and more dysfunctional and illiquid. Dealers widen their bid/offer, 'cause they have no appetite to warehouse any of this stuff (given the recent Jefferies accident, who can blame them). The real money community are scared sh1tless, so, unless they're selling in a total panic, you won't see them. The fast money punters don't want to get involved, 'cause liquidity is so crap. So, yeah, among other factors, it's a function of high volatility and uncertainty.

CDOs redux

 

[ralph00]

GMCR

 

[Daal]

Hey Martin or someone else
Any clues on why the trade short EUR vs European $ haven't been working on risk off lately?
Ever since the CHF was burried it seems that the EUR RALLIES against them on risk aversion. I took some heat on EURSEK and EURNOK today

 

[Martinghoul]

Quote from Daal:
Hey Martin or someone else
Any clues on why the trade short EUR vs European $ haven't been working on risk off lately?
Ever since the CHF was burried it seems that the EUR RALLIES against them on risk aversion. I took some heat on EURSEK and EURNOK today

Beats me... I think it's taking the thesis that EUR might go anywhere when/if the bad guys, including Italy, exit the EMU.

 

[jj90]

What's the nuke point for Italy? 8, 9 ,10%? It's been mentioned before somewhere on ET but I can't find it currently...

 

[Daal]

Tsang says Ackman will lose a lot of money on his HKD bets. This seems right to me, but the recession he predicts will mean further profits for shorting HK stocks.

The trade I put on seems solid(Long HKD Short EWH), it will only lose money in a softlanding which are rare after bubbles and it doesn't seem likely to me given the imbalances there