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Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
Quote from Daal:
This move could be a game changer for the JPY. Because now the BOJ and MoF wont have their excuses for their inaction and incompetency. Essentially the SNB showed the entire world 'thats how you do it morons'. For Japan a move like this would be a double whammy because it would both solve their FX issue but would also help a ton with ending deflation. I cut back my exposure to the JPY materially today even though I think it might take forever for the BOJ to do this
Or maybe it's the Swiss who are the morons. What exactly are they going to buy with all of those euros? German and French paper? Excellent idea, let's widen those spreads to the PIIGS even more.
The CHF is now essentially locked limit up vs. the EUR at 1.20, with the SNB selling CHF like mad.
They have been busy bees, diversifying out of EUR into other ccies... And yes, they do buy shorter-dated German paper with them Euros, but what else can they do?Quote from ralph00:
Or maybe it's the Swiss who are the morons. What exactly are they going to buy with all of those euros? German and French paper? Excellent idea, let's widen those spreads to the PIIGS even more.
The CHF is now essentially locked limit up vs. the EUR at 1.20, with the SNB selling CHF like mad.
Quote from gmst:
There is one more key point to note. Noda is now the prime minister - in absolute power. I know Japan is all about groupism and collective action. However, still when Noda put in 45 Bn $ as finance minister, I wonder what he can do as Prime Minister.
More and more it seems to me that for the short run (1week or so), the currency that will come out on top after all this will be none other than 'US Dollar'.
Absolute power??? What are you smoking and can you please pass some thisaways?
Quote from ralph00:
Not upset, would just like some of what you're smoking. Noda has a better title, yes. Whether he has more power now is arguable. Like in corporate politics, one might even say that Noda has been kicked upstairs.
Lol, I mis-understood you. Sorry, I don't have much to pass around, whatever I am smoking!
Agreed, if Noda has more power is arguable. On a side note, reading his character vs Kan's character - it seems to me that he is more forceful, more internal locus of control kind of guy. At least that was the difference between his response to JPY intervention and Kan's response to the earthquake.
Quote from gmst:
I meant as prime minister, Noda can potentially do more than as Finance minister. Agreed, 'absolute power' as such was an improper phrase. why you getting upset.
Its typical, everybody is discussing trades and macro views and this dude comes out with his zero hedge rant everyday on why he wants bernanke ballsack cut off
Quote from Daal:
Its typical, everybody is discussing trades and macro views and this dude comes out with his zero hedge rant everyday on why he wants bernanke ballsack cut off
Not sure why pointing out that the SNB needs to do something with the euros it buys is ranting. It wasn't me that lost $90B (or whatever the figure was) last year in the currency markets. Also not sure, why pointing out that Noda actually has little power in a country that goes through PMs like Steinbrenner through managers. Seems to me like those are both quite valid macro points.
Review the last month (or last several months now that i think about it), sonny. A host of trades - most of them wildly profitable.
Also, for the long term guys - a bunch of stocks that are about guaranteed to compound 15% or more/year for the next decade - WMT, MSFT, TUP, XOM, NLY (bought BP this morning, BTW).
You keep giving us the flow of funds reports and latest utterings from central planners, saves me searching the web to find them.
Looks like (at least in the last 30 mins) the USD is being considered a safe haven again, with declines to New York session lows in EUR, GBP and AUD, and gold pulling back a few dollars as well.
edited to add: and strangely enough, while that move happened, the 10-year bond futures fell.
I would have thought USD strength would equate to ZN strength as well.
edited to add: and strangely enough, while that move happened, the 10-year bond futures fell.
I would have thought USD strength would equate to ZN strength as well.