Hmm, change that ending year from 2022 to 2021. What would those boxes look like then?
Giving up on my dream of trading for a living
- Thread starter SteveM
- Start date
Hmm, change that ending year from 2022 to 2021. What would those boxes look like then?
Yup,I was wondering the same thing..
What were the returns the last 4 years,and what was your peak to trough drawdown??
I can't see how this isn't a win win,unless I am missing something..
What were the returns the last 4 years,and what was your peak to trough drawdown??
I can't see how this isn't a win win,unless I am missing something..
I was probably withdrawing $2K a month on average.....I plugged it all into a calculator I found online and it said my return was 11.5% a year ($150K starting, $75K ending, -$2K per month withdrawals, 7 years)...The first few years were rough, so if I excluded them, my CAGR is probably north of 25% over the last 4 years. But unfortunately we can't exclude them
But that sounds pretty good!
The only problem I see here, is you were withdrawing more than you were making.
Would be better if you would somehow reduce the spending or get an extra source of income, like a part-time job.
25% CAGR is good, just your account was too small for the 2k monthly withdrawals..
Thanks for your candour @SteveM
I'm sure many of us have experienced similar emotions over the years.
I see similarities between your approach and mine (many spreadsheets of backtested ideas etc)
Based on what you have said, you obviously have a talent. But if I can make a observation, there is a glaring inconsistency within what you have posted, and consideration of it could help you to consider how you've got to where you are, and how to move forwards if you want to.
and
This all sounds a bit chaotic, and you give the impression that you would have backtested, modelled, optimised this to provide you with an exit strategy / stop loss / risk management / money management strategy that enables you to handle inevitable losses and make a profit in total. Perhaps you should revisit this?
I'm sure many of us have experienced similar emotions over the years.
I see similarities between your approach and mine (many spreadsheets of backtested ideas etc)
Based on what you have said, you obviously have a talent. But if I can make a observation, there is a glaring inconsistency within what you have posted, and consideration of it could help you to consider how you've got to where you are, and how to move forwards if you want to.
and
This all sounds a bit chaotic, and you give the impression that you would have backtested, modelled, optimised this to provide you with an exit strategy / stop loss / risk management / money management strategy that enables you to handle inevitable losses and make a profit in total. Perhaps you should revisit this?
Thanks for your feedback. I probably should have clarified. I went through three stages over the last 7 years:
1) Initially trying my breakout strategy that made me a lot of money while working a regular job in 2010-2011....then discovering that the markets had changed and that I needed to find a way to make money in all market conditions, and needed structure in my trading (rules).
2) Thinking "price action trading" was the answer to problem 1 above....started quantifying market edges, but found myself falling down a black hole of technical analysis where a candlestick pattern was telling me to buy, while some quantitive backtested data told me to sell at the same time. Couldn't find away to approach "price action trading" where I had both structure and hard rules.
3) Realizing the above, decide to go fully systematic.....where I finally have average 25% CAGR....BUT.....2020-2021 was a money printing machine for my strategy due to the COVID craziness in the market....returns in 2022-23 have not been as good, but I keep plugging away running the system.
I hope this clarifies a bit.
Good call....literally a week after the you made this post, the banking crisis flared up and my system had the best 2 week stretch that it has had in over a year.
Otherwise. Any news since you first started this thread? Did you get a job? Still following/trading the markets?
Trading is a very tough business, it really is. I do pretty well and a large part is because I own a business and dont actually rely on trading. That means I dont need to force trades in order to pay my bills.
Have you tried not trading at the open? Thats where a lot of money is lost.
Have you tried not trading at the open? Thats where a lot of money is lost.
Yes to both. I'm still running my system every day, and yes, I polished up the resume and sent it to a few local recruiters last week...I am attempting to get a lower-level analyst jobs in hopes that an employer will overlook the gap in my resume, and think more that they are getting someone with 10 years of experience at a lower cost basis. I'll let you know how my strategy works out, lol....additionally, I have been busy here at my house. Wife and I bought our first house last Fall, so I have plenty of updating projects here around the house that I am doing....as you can imagine, this is another money suck, that puts more of a focus on my bank account. Fortunately, my wife works and makes a good salary, but there is still my end of things, and those bills are increasing with a new house.
Yeah, I think you make a valid point here. **Needing** to extract money out of the market on a daily/weekly/monthly basis makes things far more challenging. I am sure there are some that can do it, but the number is much smaller than most realize.
If someone asked me "what type of person should go into daytrading" I would probably respond "a 60 year old person who has been around the markets for a long time, who has great emotional detachment *and* a good pension that cannot be taken away." I wouldn't even recommend trading to a multi-millionaire off the street with no pension to fall back on. Very good chance that person would go broke if they didn't know themselves very well.
No, the system I came up with still trades the open, since the backtest said that it was profitable to do so...I try to take myself out of the decision-making as much as possible and just let it do it's thing. But perhaps I will start testing some ideas on tradestation that exclude the opening range.