the "should" is the most costy.
I am a trend follower. often I see everything trending. in reality, 70% does not trend. easily buy top and sell bottom. but to a contrary trader, easily sell breakout and buy breakdown, since they thought new high is resistence, and new low is bottom.
what I realzie is trend trading is better than bottom picking and top short sale or fading. even I bought at the top and sell the bottom, most times those are just in the range, 70% time I will not in a big loser trade. often the range is small compared to wide price expansion in breakout/breakdown.
the hard thing to me is: discipline myself just focus on trending market. often I tempt to trade those random markets. just like something happened in the street, a crowd of people there, they seems they are watching some fun thing, and I do not know what is going on, the temptation to know is so strong, I push myself into the crowd and to the center, that drives me away from my predictable market, of course easily lost. since a crowd of people in a spot could happen in many reasons.
I start to realize" trading is boring" is an indicator. when I feel boring, that means I am discinplned and doing well, follow my routine is so boring, this also tells me I am in danger, the temptation to not get boring is so high, so I may walk away into those unknown zone again, just like Nemo Fish, his Dad told him not go far, but he does.
I was trading NQ yesterday, based on my analysis, I should buy at the closing at 2808.25 (overnight support), when it hit there, a funny thing in my mind pop up "NG is at 10;30am inventory report", so I did not buy and moved away from NQ, sat there wait NG report, the report came out, NG shoot and big drop, then up quickly, I have a vague idea of NG should go up, it was fast, I forgot about my signals and my plan, jumped in the quick up, bought at the top, then waited and waited, saw it almost hit my stop loss (mental), the day's low 3.365, then waited and waited, and until it cleared my entry, wasted lots of time in waiting, almost the whole day!
DISCINPLINE is hard: do what I should do is hard. sometimes maybe the temptation to see "what is going on", sometimes maybe the fear " does my idea work" negative thought, sometimes just the rebelling thought....