Give your best explanation on why a rounded top is a sign of trend dying.

[traderob]

I find this pattern works ....

50% of the time.

 

[murray t turtle]

Actually, you don't know that. Suggest be careful about what you "think" know. (The market is very good about getting you to "take the bait", then "setting the hook".)

%%
The PE is a bit low 50; + debt a bit hi=217%.
BUT overall its still a good UP trend, if one ''knows'' how to read charts;
up YTD
UP 1 year
Up 3 years
Up 7 years
UP 5 hour charts
UP above 50 dma
up above 200 day moving average
up from your entry[OOPs 1 minute= noise chart]
Above AVerage uptrend

IF that was me; i would print out plenty of those daily/weekly/monthly charts;
+ change my plan =if one wants a profit??

IF i wanted thrills + not much profits; keep trying to pull pennies out of 1 minute noise.Ever wonder why even hedge funds update clients every month+ not every 1 minute?? NOT a prediction;its still a good/liquid uptrend.

 

[iccenuol]

I know that this is a rounded top, and not a pullback followed by another long. But I am seeking a good way to explain it conceptually. How would you explain the difference between a rounded top where the trend dies, and a healthy pullback? A rounded top is a sustained push up, rather than the normal up and down of a trend. One would think that it's a sign of strength, so why is it actually a sign of the trend dying?

I traded it as a pullback, which obviously didn't work.
View attachment 197725

Maybe you're over-analysing the issue? The chart below illustrates a bull phase on the ES, I've put an arrow under the last area of my buying interest within that particular phase. The point being, you follow your method until it stops working. Sometimes the tops are bit 'rounded', sometimes a bit 'pointy'...I wouldn't get too concerned about it, don't try and read too much into it buddy.

 

[Scataphagos]

%%
The PE is a bit low 50; + debt a bit hi=217%.
BUT overall its still a good UP trend, if one ''knows'' how to read charts;
up YTD
UP 1 year
Up 3 years
Up 7 years
UP 5 hour charts
UP above 50 dma
up above 200 day moving average
up from your entry[OOPs 1 minute= noise chart]
Above AVerage uptrend

IF that was me; i would print out plenty of those daily/weekly/monthly charts;
+ change my plan =if one wants a profit??

IF i wanted thrills + not much profits; keep trying to pull pennies out of 1 minute noise.Ever wonder why even hedge funds update clients every month+ not every 1 minute?? NOT a prediction;its still a good/liquid uptrend.

Some of that applies.

But back to the OP... who "knows" about this being a "rounded top"? Odds good that neither is correct.

For a possible rounded top, ref IWM from Aug-Oct.

 

[murray t turtle]

Some of that applies.

But back to the OP... who "knows" about this being a "rounded top"? Odds good that neither is correct.

.........ref IWM from Aug-Oct.

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BIG MISTAKE to confuse a weather forecast with ''weather prediction/know'' Farmer Almanac is right about 80%.

An uptrend is so full of tops/higher highs, higher lows, higher lows, higher closes; for maximum cost of commissions , maximum thrills+ maximum confusion, use only a 1 minute chart [sarcasm].Usually buy tech stocks/QQQ in OCT works well, ;except 2018 LOL