Give me ONE rational explanation for Today's rally

Here is the reason (after a comment):

1. RFT called on the (then small number of) bulls to start administering candles to bears in the bottom area.

He called it on his blog and here on ET (but someone seems to have removed the thread).

Also, somehow the bears ignited the fuses at end of candles, and with the candles sinking deep inside, you know what the double pain can do.

That is it! Next time never go against a market call from the greatest market timer of all times, particularly after he warned you here on ET and on his Blog!

2. Reason: none, as market has nothing to do with the economy. Market makes the economy, not the other way around.

Repeat this 100 times (every day): "Market makes the economy, not the other way around".

:p
 
Quote from Anekdoten:

Bear trap, they grabbed most of the stops, and what better place to do it than piercing through multi year lows, where most are located, they proceeded to accumulate as much as they could then they produced a hammer like action that is typical of temporary bottoms with intense volume.

Although the ES produced a confirmed reversal formation at the very lows it was not until it got back up to Globex Low and decisively broke it that things got intense, after that, it was just a matter of buying the retracements and holding as much as you possibly could and if you were focused until the EOD.

The move was very well orchestrated but truth be told, you can follow the shadow of the giants just by studying what price is doing.

The move was relentless taking out every near term multi day resistance point with little effort until it had enough, due to time and not momentum, and finally closed and hold at the 50% retracement level of recent swing highs (1060s) to swing lows (today lod).

In short, it was a trap with a high element of surprise the demand was there but the supply was not.

As far as fundamental reasons, I haven't got a clue so just gave you the price action version which is all I know.

Anek
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i actually had a profitable day, the only trade i struggled with was a short at the midpoint of the range 8813 at the end, for a loss of 11 ym points

this market is a very vicious game of rock, paper sissors, anyone fooling with it has to wait until someone else gets stung, make a split second observation, and watch the position with intensity and extreme discipline - a surprise 500 point plus spike can come out of nowhere, respecting no support or resistance - i think that's the hardest thing, is that support and resistence seem to be 'suspended' for arbitrary periods of time

i think you're right, that they are setting a lot of T/A traps, and why I'm stepping aside for the 'too obvious' stuff - not being contrarian, just standing aside

I've found that trend line drawings have been helpfull, as a *guide*, not a rule
 
Whatever happened has broad effects. I notice 10 year USA Treasury note futures, USA Dollar index futures, gold futures, crude oil futures, SP index futures and maybe even corn futures all changing direction about 1:00 PM USA Eastern Standard Time.
 
Here is what RFT wrote about the bear trap before it happened:

"The market is moving down, and this is the equivalent to taking someone to a back dark ally to take his money. We believe that the guys being taken to the back dark alley are the sellers."

The quote is from RFT's blog! Bears trapped themselves.
 
Quote from S2007S:

This is what you call a BEAR MARKET RALLY.

Nothing else but a BEAR MARKET RALLY. Anyone who thinks this is the beginning of a new bull market is a complete IDIOT.
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I kinda remember when oil was 140 you were prediciting it to go up.
 
David Kotol on cnbc said he is all in and said he sees the DOW at 10k by the end of the year, 10k is possible but that guy is a joke.

:p :p :p :p :p
 
According to CNBC the market forcast the end of a recession 6 months in advance maybe the market is telling us something. LOL. But we tested the lows and led to a rally. will it hold i can't tell you.
 
Quote from S2007S:

David Kotol on cnbc said he is all in and said he sees the DOW at 10k by the end of the year, 10k is possible but that guy is a joke.

:p :p :p :p :p
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i never, ever listen to them

i'm not contrarian to them

i dont think about them
 
Quote from Sky123987:

I kinda remember when oil was 140 you were prediciting it to go up.
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??????


WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT????

I WAS THE one who was yelling that oil and commodities were in a huge bubble and that oil was going to drop significantly, I can show you the many posts on my oil predictions. Go back and read my posts....




S2007S


Registered: Aug 2006
Posts: 7571


07-11-08 08:51 AM

Oil will collapse JUST LIKE THE FINANCIALS.

There is little demand left when the world is in a recession.


OIL WILL CORRECT JUST LIKE THE

DOT COMS

PRIVATE EQUITY

FINANCIALS

and

HOUSING.


Oil at 146 now, in 12-18 months less than $100.




-----------------------------------------------------


S2007S


Registered: Aug 2006
Posts: 7571


06-27-08 11:28 AM

HOW COME THE OIL BUBBLE IS DIFFERENT then say the HOUSING BUBBLE TO TECH BUBBLE, when people start to announce that the run up in oil is different then the housing or tech bubble its time to sell and sell it all. It makes me laugh because this the SAME MENTALITY that everyone had during the dot com and real estate boom, dont give me that pathetic garbage that this time its different that high oil prices and commodity prices are here to stay, THEY ARE NOT. How can you have demand for oil or any other related commodities when the US is in a recession and consumer spending is falling faster than ever, consumer sentiment at a 28 year low shows how bad this economy really is. There will be a slowdown worldwide over the next 12-18 months, demand for oil is going to DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.

Aside from that read this quote and laugh because thats what Im doing right now, IM LAUGHING and thinking what fool thinks the run up in oil and energy prices is sustainable. Oil and commodities are going to correct greatly and when they do you can remember what they said, that this time its different, HAHA.
 
Quote from CollegeTrader:

According to CNBC the market forcast the end of a recession 6 months in advance maybe the market is telling us something. LOL. But we tested the lows and led to a rally. will it hold i can't tell you.
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So tired of hearing how the the market forecasts the end of the recession 6 months in advance, everyone needs to wake the F$CK up and understand this market environment is different than ANY MARKET ENVIRONMENT anyone has ever witnessed, we are in a time where this market cannot be compared to any text book written statistic, enough of the foolish talk.
 
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