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Give me a stock, any stock...
- Thread starter michaelscott
- Start date
Volatility event on MU tommorrow. Lets see if this pans out.
Quote from michaelscott:
MU-
This is part of the SOX index which is notoriously difficult to predict. The semiconductor industry is highly cyclical. The trick to this stock is looking at it on a macro-level and using technical analysis over many years to see the big picture evolving.
Looking at the data we see the following patterns emerging:
2/21/2003- Low of 7.52
4/8/2004- High of 17.35
4/22/2005- Low of 9.41
9/8/2006- High of 17.88
The pattern we see emerging over several years is that of an ascending triangle where we are seeing higher lows, but equal highs.
The big picture I am seeing is this. On June 30th, 2000 the price closed at 90.81. Then the price came down hard from there and hit a low of 7.52 on 2/21/2003. We are now seeing a reversal to the upside in the making that has taken place over many years. The ascending triangle that has formed from 2003 to the present time is a reversal pattern due to the huge move that was made during the tech boom.
Recently the price was at 11.25 right around March 12th and then hit a double bottom right at 11.22.
Go long now at this point because it is going to make a new run for the 17s. Set a hard stop at 10.95 or a trailing stop as it goes up depending upon your risk management strategy. If it sinks below 11 then next stop is either 9 or 7. Point and figure chart says 4.
The next test will be in the 17s. If it is able to get past 17, then the price target will be 23.
Conclusion-
1. Go long now.
2. Set a stop right at 11.
3. If it goes through 11, next stop is 9 or 7 or 4.
4. If it goes up from here, then the future price target will be 17.
5. If it goes through 17, then it will probably make it to 23.
GFI-
I looked at a few mining stocks previously and they trade all over the place like a wild horse. They are not as simple as the other stocks where we can throw down a MACD or have two moving averages cross.
These mining stocks are not safe predictable trades. I wouldnt trade these mining stocks and would move on to trade something simpler like NYX or GROW where I can use some moving averages and indicators for signals. So thats my cautious warning on these mining stocks.
So with that said, here goes-
You have a nasty incomplete head and shoulders on this chart. The neckline was broken, but I feel like it didnt correct far enough. I think it should have gotten to 10 dollars.
However, now we are in a trading range. There is a large overhead gap providing resistance established on Sept 2006. The price has now reached the overhead bar and deciding what to do. The lower resistance is another gap that was back in December 2005.
If the price breaks through the upper bar (with volume), then the price target will be the height of the trading range plus 19.34 or 22.94.
If the price bounces off the top bar then most likely it will head back to the bottom bar. If it breaks through the bottom then the price target is 15.74 minus the height of the trading range or 12.14.
I would not long this stock whatsoever at this price level. There is a lot of overhead resistance in your way including gaps and double tops. Even if it breaks through the bar, I cant see it going that much higher. It would be too much risk vs. reward for myself. Notice when this stock has hit peaks in the past then there are these sudden unexplained gaps to the downside.
I would wait to see if it gets above the bar. If it doesnt, short the stock and ride it back down.
The only good news is thats a reverse head and shoulders pattern staring at you right in the face at the end of the chart. The reverse h&s can either complete or not complete. If it does complete and break the reverse neckline, which it might, then it faces overhead gaps and several very strong resistance levels.
In conclusion, if it gets through the bar then you might expect 22 (that is if the price can make it through the next overhead gap dated June 2006). If it bounces, then expect downside. There are many possible pivot points on the way down. I would say if it moves down then it might make another move for the underneath bar.
I looked at a few mining stocks previously and they trade all over the place like a wild horse. They are not as simple as the other stocks where we can throw down a MACD or have two moving averages cross.
These mining stocks are not safe predictable trades. I wouldnt trade these mining stocks and would move on to trade something simpler like NYX or GROW where I can use some moving averages and indicators for signals. So thats my cautious warning on these mining stocks.
So with that said, here goes-
You have a nasty incomplete head and shoulders on this chart. The neckline was broken, but I feel like it didnt correct far enough. I think it should have gotten to 10 dollars.
However, now we are in a trading range. There is a large overhead gap providing resistance established on Sept 2006. The price has now reached the overhead bar and deciding what to do. The lower resistance is another gap that was back in December 2005.
If the price breaks through the upper bar (with volume), then the price target will be the height of the trading range plus 19.34 or 22.94.
If the price bounces off the top bar then most likely it will head back to the bottom bar. If it breaks through the bottom then the price target is 15.74 minus the height of the trading range or 12.14.
I would not long this stock whatsoever at this price level. There is a lot of overhead resistance in your way including gaps and double tops. Even if it breaks through the bar, I cant see it going that much higher. It would be too much risk vs. reward for myself. Notice when this stock has hit peaks in the past then there are these sudden unexplained gaps to the downside.
I would wait to see if it gets above the bar. If it doesnt, short the stock and ride it back down.
The only good news is thats a reverse head and shoulders pattern staring at you right in the face at the end of the chart. The reverse h&s can either complete or not complete. If it does complete and break the reverse neckline, which it might, then it faces overhead gaps and several very strong resistance levels.
In conclusion, if it gets through the bar then you might expect 22 (that is if the price can make it through the next overhead gap dated June 2006). If it bounces, then expect downside. There are many possible pivot points on the way down. I would say if it moves down then it might make another move for the underneath bar.
Attachments
This is a good one.
JTX-
That little drop scared you huh? Tax fraud, yeah?
My chart should instill some confidence.
Look at the Fibonacci retracement and the gap. The drop filled the gap and did a 50% retracement to boot. This is a highly bullish sign.
I am making the price target here between 30-31 dollars.
JTX-
That little drop scared you huh? Tax fraud, yeah?
My chart should instill some confidence.
Look at the Fibonacci retracement and the gap. The drop filled the gap and did a 50% retracement to boot. This is a highly bullish sign.
I am making the price target here between 30-31 dollars.
Attachments
How do you trade with that many indicators?
JSDA B.A.R.F.
JSDA B.A.R.F.
JSDA is entering B.A.R.F. mode. It has escaped its primary trend channel and moving up a secondary channel in a manic pattern. The ADX, OBV and A/D are showing signs of manic buying.
I have made a few calculations, but its difficult to make an accurate price target when an equity is in a mania. It is my theory that the equity has skipped the next trend in the channel sequence and will probably top out in the 40s before it violates the secondary trend channel and heads for the primary. However, it could turn around at anytime.
The B.A.R.F. is complete when the price violates the primary trend channel. The target will then be (price when it violates the primary top channel line)- ((price when it violates the secondary mania line)-(price when it violates the primary top channel line))
Some famous B.A.R.F.s have been the incomplete 1987 crash and then the more complete 2000 tech crash.
JSDA B.A.R.F.
JSDA is entering B.A.R.F. mode. It has escaped its primary trend channel and moving up a secondary channel in a manic pattern. The ADX, OBV and A/D are showing signs of manic buying.
I have made a few calculations, but its difficult to make an accurate price target when an equity is in a mania. It is my theory that the equity has skipped the next trend in the channel sequence and will probably top out in the 40s before it violates the secondary trend channel and heads for the primary. However, it could turn around at anytime.
The B.A.R.F. is complete when the price violates the primary trend channel. The target will then be (price when it violates the primary top channel line)- ((price when it violates the secondary mania line)-(price when it violates the primary top channel line))
Some famous B.A.R.F.s have been the incomplete 1987 crash and then the more complete 2000 tech crash.