Gimme some SUGAR

P

pinetboltz

While scrolling through the commodity futures charts, I noticed that Sugar No. 11 look kinda interesting --

1) V-shaped bottom w/ a 10%+ reversal during a 2 week period from Aug 20 to Sep 13
2) Price now back near lows, to 11.25 for March 2019 contract
3) Pattern reminiscent of coffee futures a while back in 2016/2017, before price took off for a swing trade

Anyone is an old hand at trading sugar futures?

What's your price target for picking a bottom / entering from the long side?

I think there might still be room for a bit more on the downside, but once the bottom forms perhaps it'd be nice to work in a bunch of contracts (margin at $1k per contract) & hold for a 20-25% rally on notional value?
 
"With respect to trading sugar, if they give it away for free at restaurants, you probably don't want to be trading it"
- John L Person 1961
 
She's given back more than 1/2 of the bounce out of the "v" bottom. I'm not touching sugar.
tt-chart (37).png
 
pinetboltz said:
While scrolling through the commodity futures charts, I noticed that Sugar No. 11 look kinda interesting --

1) V-shaped bottom w/ a 10%+ reversal during a 2 week period from Aug 20 to Sep 13
2) Price now back near lows, to 11.25 for March 2019 contract
3) Pattern reminiscent of coffee futures a while back in 2016/2017, before price took off for a swing trade

Anyone is an old hand at trading sugar futures?

What's your price target for picking a bottom / entering from the long side?

I think there might still be room for a bit more on the downside, but once the bottom forms perhaps it'd be nice to work in a bunch of contracts (margin at $1k per contract) & hold for a 20-25% rally on notional value?
More...

so…as a follow up post just cos Bloomberg’s front page today has a story on sugar futures at multi year highs right now: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-poses-new-threat-to-food-inflation#xj4y7vzkg

going back to the time when i made original post on sugar futures, it was indeed at the bottom

I remember it catching my interest back then for a quick play bc
- all the commodity guys were getting shut down
- all the health gurus were saying no sugar forever
- all the niche industry headlines written by music majors were saying there was a “supply glut” that would “take years to resolve”

i took a position but wish i played it harder and longer in retrospect lol

what markets today are like sugar in 2018?
 
easymon1 said:
You tell me...

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1

...and then LP's pretty excited about this
cued...
More...

yes i thought about NG but there were a couple issues

- many brokers don't allow that much leverage on NG futures for some reason, it'd be like trading a stock unleveraged

- the nat gas market (and crude oil to some extent) always seems a bit perverse, in the sense that now that it's making headlines for "being at the lows" it's almost like begging the masses to buy in...and promptly for them to get run over before the final bottom when they get liquidated. Kind of like crude oil did when it was trading $20/ then $10/ then $5/ then negative, before that big rebound. Not saying i like a short at these prices but if even i want to play a long, i want to wait for that final liquidation, to $1.60 or thereabouts. just cos by reverse psychology that market is truly perverse & i know the supposed "bottom" right now is too obvious, which makes it seem like a trap for the masses to get sucked in
 
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