Giddy Energy Boards

B

Babak

I'm noticing more and more brazen bullishness on msg energy boards (CWEI on yahoo is a popular one). Somehow the sheeple are managing to get on board right at the top again.

The fact that energy and oil went down even with the real threat of Rita headed for Houston is a huge alarm bell. But these guys are too busy cheerleading.

Check out this recent post:

Well, there's uh, no problem here on the energy front. Um, should be lots for everyone, and prices are uh, likely heading down. Yeah, its all nicely balanced, and um, lots of new, uh, supply coming on stream, so, uh, no need to...do anything rash. As long as everyone just remains calm, and uh, under control we all should be able to get along just fine. Yeah, I'm uh, just going to cover a few of my, uh, underwater short positions, for, um, diversification purposes, yeah, but there's no need to be alarmed...nobody panic...lots of oil for everyone, um, yeah. So, I'm just going to cover my energy short positions over here now...no need to rush out and follow me...energy shares are uh, pretty richly valued here, and um, yeah the supply situation looks, uh, good.

Along with Cramer, the greatest fade of all time, climbing aboard (after he gave up on oil in mid May - *at the bottom*), this makes me very, very nervous as I continue to hold some longs in energy land.

Any thoughts?
 
Poster appears to be in a mocking-satire mode...or rather, so it appears out of context with prior messages.

Thus far, I'm long too.
 
It's interesting that someone would make up a post like that: For disinformation? To make people believe that the ones who are long are dumb therefore short we should be?

What do you think Man Babak?
 
The boards look a lot less giddy today. More like dazed and confused. I'm still thinking that this is a tell. If the market can't rally in the face of a second hurricane barreling down Texas, then I don't know what it needs to rally.

And I know Rita was downgraded but even a category 4 or 3 can do great damage. As well the refineries, rigs and other drills have already been shut down (and will take atleast 2 weeks to restart).

http://gom.rigzone.com/rita.asp
 
Quote from Babak:

The boards look a lot less giddy today. More like dazed and confused. I'm still thinking that this is a tell. If the market can't rally in the face of a second hurricane barreling down Texas, then I don't know what it needs to rally.
More...

Energy message boards filled with college kids trading stock options on energy stocks would not be my idea of any kind of indicator, contrary, let alone anything else. A complete waste of time. And ET is just a touch above these kinds of boards, for that matter.

The key will be how the energy markets open up on the NYMEX come Sunday morning at 10AM EST.

Everything until then is just noise.
 
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