Ghost of If You Can Draw A Straight Line

[Redneck]

Who said one size fits all? The SLA is an option for those who've been at this for years and still can't attain consistent profitability.

As for RT PA reading skills, comparing one's skills with another's is only one consideration. Another is how long it took each trader to achieve competence.

Every opportunity you attempt to make it sound as if back testing is the only way – it is not


Reading PA real time and correctly - is the only consideration when trading real time


How long it takes someone to get this,..., or not - is up to them

Nothing external will "speed" that up

RN

 

[dbphoenix]

Every opportunity you attempt to make it sound as if back testing is the only way – it is not

Reading PA real time and correctly - is the only consideration when trading real time

How long it takes someone to get this,..., or not - is up to them

Nothing external will "speed" that up

RN

I guess we'll just have to disagree on that.

 

[green.green]

Redneck

I know you come in peace and we don't need to endlessly debate a difference of opinion. I'm just adding my two cents. From my experience with poker (I did a fair amount of coaching) there were a lot of players that would play 6 tables or more at once in an effort to accelerate their learning. The thinking was that getting 6x times more hands in per day would allow them enough real-time experience to master the game. The unspoken assumption is that with enough experience you can become an intuitive player.

In my experience it never worked. Players could play endlessly and never see the same mistake they were making over and over again. All successful players I've known have done a lot of work away from the tables. You do need experience and lots of it - but alone it is never enough.

 

[Redneck]

Redneck

In my experience it never worked.

Players could play endlessly and never see the same mistake they were making over and over again.

Journal

=======

btw - back testing.., via replaying.., is just like being on SIM - pure semantics


RN

 

[txpoker]

Every opportunity you attempt to make it sound as if back testing is the only way – it is not


Reading PA real time and correctly - is the only consideration when trading real time


How long it takes someone to get this,..., or not - is up to them

Nothing external will "speed" that up

RN

there is no "ONLY" in trading the market.

 

[Redneck]

there is no "ONLY" in trading the market.

Certainly is - a few of them

RN

 

[bmwhendrix]

I've been really working hard getting my mind totally wrapped around AMT and mean reversion as the basic inner workings of a market. It seems that it is not uncommon for an assumed profitable trader to espouse the use an "anchor" chart of a larger timeframe than the "entry" chart in their method. They look for a trend line hit or break or some other derivative signal on the anchor. As I consider AMT, I am seeing that these methods may be just filtering out some aspect of AMT that seems to work for them, without fully accepting the mean reversion aspect. I am becoming more comfortable with this.

One aspect of price movement that I can not quite reconcile is that of apparent support and resistance levels. The basic question is: Are support and resistance levels that are often used as part of an entry or stop placement strategy, also just another aspect of AMT that appear, not because the levels have any meaning, but rather as arbitrary levels that are reached as part of the extremes before a reversal to the mean.

 

[Fluke]

The basic question is: Are support and resistance levels that are often used as part of an entry or stop placement strategy, also just another aspect of AMT that appear, not because the levels have any meaning, but rather as arbitrary levels that are reached as part of the extremes before a reversal to the mean.

I am not sure how you define support and resistance levels, but put simply support or resistance is a "zone or level at which those who have enough money to make a difference attempt to retard, halt, and reverse a fall/rise by buying/selling." This price, where the last set of transactions took place between willing buyers and sellers, is anything but arbitrary as it represents the price beyond which traders could no longer transact, and therefore, it exists independently of your chart and your lines. As for whether or not that is import to your ability to place a profitable trade will be discovered in how traders interact the next time trading activity approaches that price.

 

[dbphoenix]

I've been really working hard getting my mind totally wrapped around AMT and mean reversion as the basic inner workings of a market. It seems that it is not uncommon for an assumed profitable trader to espouse the use an "anchor" chart of a larger timeframe than the "entry" chart in their method. They look for a trend line hit or break or some other derivative signal on the anchor. As I consider AMT, I am seeing that these methods may be just filtering out some aspect of AMT that seems to work for them, without fully accepting the mean reversion aspect. I am becoming more comfortable with this.

One aspect of price movement that I can not quite reconcile is that of apparent support and resistance levels. The basic question is: Are support and resistance levels that are often used as part of an entry or stop placement strategy, also just another aspect of AMT that appear, not because the levels have any meaning, but rather as arbitrary levels that are reached as part of the extremes before a reversal to the mean.

As I've said quite a number of times by now, the sort of support and resistance levels to which you refer are not a part of the SLA. The fact that they are "often used" is irrelevant to their alleged usefulness in that if they were as useful as they're supposed to be, those who use them would be consistently profitable.

Fluke's characterization is about as good as you're going to get. If there are lines or zones beyond which traders can't or won't go, this is worth incorporating into the prep for the day. But this is a completely different animal from all the lines and zones and supposed confluences that I see in many of the charts that are presented.

As far as the "anchor chart", the SLA begins as it always has with a macro chart of the entire trend, reaching back to '08. It then zooms to the daily, the hourly, to whatever bar interval one trades. That people don't do this is beyond my control. Also beyond my control is the number of lines they collect along the way.

The first journal, which began at TL, was entitled "If You Can Draw A Straight Line". However, what any given individual chooses to go through in order to draw that line can be extraordinarily complex. He may choose to hold the pencil in his teeth. While standing on his hands. Blindfolded. In the dark. While wild dogs nip at his butt. Then discover he has no lead in his pencil (having no lead in one's pencil appears to be a common trait among many self-proclaimed traders). But if one approaches it in the normal way, as a beginner would, there are few options to add to the basic package, primarily having to do with how far the trader can allow price to move against him before exiting the trade. That so many people drag along irrelevant notions of risk:reward and "targets" and "expectancy" and so forth, not to mention indicators, is again beyond my control. Those who can't let these and other irrelevancies go are unlikely to succeed with this plan. But the SLA is just a plan. It's not therapy.

 

[dbphoenix]

FWIW, this is what I'm looking at for this evening, aside from the weekly chart posted Friday. This is all I'm looking at. There's no need for me to add anything else. This is simple. I know exactly what to do with this. There is nothing here to ignite any sort of fear response. It's just a matter of drawing a straight -- lateral or diagonal -- line.