Ghost of If You Can Draw A Straight Line
- Thread starter dbphoenix
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5min Intraday NAZ...
well , we are at an extreme .. so what do we wanna see ?
we want to see demand overcoming supply.. do we see that ?
well.. sort of .. yes we have broken several SLs , we see that price has trouble making
new lows.. we even whitness a higher low , ie. a retr. after the penultimate SL break..
but is that enough evidence that the balance of supply and demand is now in
thefavour of demand ?.. not quite yet... or. would u exit your short given the current
market scenario ?
so there is some pausing at the moment.,. but still no evidence that strenght is
returning to the market...
if we look into the future ie.. the up ward drawn channel (blue) we even see a rejection
of the mean.. as of now.. so caution here...
risk wise one could try and play a reversal right away (strict SLA) (with a lil stirct MM
why not?) not much to lose here... but context wise.. i would rather wait and see how
a retest of the lows would play out.. even shorting a break of the Blue channel + retr.
would be an option... as alot of people may look at a long opportunity right now.. but
if the market isnt ready to rise.... they will start to puke if that level breaks.... and one
could play that right from the start...
so we have three options here.. test a long opportunity right away (AMT+SLA) ,
or try a short play if we break the DL + Retr. (playing a pot. momentum driven puke)
or wait till we test the mean of the down channel (pink) + a rejection of that + a break
of the down channel + retr. ( playing a pot. strenght returning to the market
AMT+SLA+Exhaustion of sellers+Fresh Demand kickin in..)
Made, if you are trying to apply the SLA, give a new read to how to draw lines as I see you are overdrawing them. They are supposed to show you what the trend is, if there is no trend then there should be no line.
I see 3480 and 3450
I'm not sure if its the immediate downside target but on the daily the mean of the green channel is around 3425.
Since we have dropped to below the March '14 channel and the overnight action is showing more downtrend, the next level would be taken from the June 2013 channel that you posted last week. I am reposting your image as I have issues with going so far back in my charting. It appears as if the mean (not in the picture) falls to about 3410 or 3420 in this image. This would be the next area to look for if the drop continues.
How did you arrive at this?
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