Ghost of If You Can Draw A Straight Line

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Well, AMT won the day today. We opened just above the mean and got to 48 before turning south, but it was hardly a glide. So most of us had long ended our day before this hinge resolved itself to the downside.

The chart on the right shows where we are as of now, which is of course the lower limit of the trend channel. This should make things easier tomorrow. However, since we couldn't even make a higher high, there's always the possibility that price continues down into the next longer trend channel. Since that's less than 20pts lower than where we are now, it's not beyond the realm of possibility. If all that comes to pass, we have some falling to do.
 
For those who follow this, I should also point out, for a macro view, that new highs continue to decline and the NDX leaders aren't performing too well. This doesn't have anything to do with the SLA per se, but it does have a lot to do with AMT, factors which encourage one to take the short and hang onto it.
 
I saw you "fanning the channel" and tried without peeking and came up with this. It looks good to my eyes but is different than yours. Isn't what I've drawn the last channel you would have had before price broke out of it into the blue channel?

I'm starting to feel like I'm doing everything a little different than everyone else. Should I stop simming and go back to observation even though I feel like simming is going decently?
 
dbphoenix said:
Well, AMT won the day today. We opened just above the mean and got to 48 before turning south, but it was hardly a glide. So most of us had long ended our day before this hinge resolved itself to the downside.

The chart on the right shows where we are as of now, which is of course the lower limit of the trend channel. This should make things easier tomorrow. However, since we couldn't even make a higher high, there's always the possibility that price continues down into the next longer trend channel. Since that's less than 20pts lower than where we are now, it's not beyond the realm of possibility. If all that comes to pass, we have some falling to do.
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See charts above.

The falling occurred as expected when we fell below the TC. 20+pts to the downside and another 30+ back up then change on the back and forth. Just one example of what planning the trade in advance can do.

To the right, we have a hinge going on. We'll have to see what happens with that, but it'll be traded as usual.
 
green.green said:
I saw you "fanning the channel" and tried without peeking and came up with this. It looks good to my eyes but is different than yours. Isn't what I've drawn the last channel you would have had before price broke out of it into the blue channel?

I'm starting to feel like I'm doing everything a little different than everyone else. Should I stop simming and go back to observation even though I feel like simming is going decently?
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The next lower TC starts in November. If you're not clear on how to draw trend channels, see the beginning of the second thread.
 
dbphoenix said:
As to the trendlines themselves, the first is drawn below the first two swing lows. As RN explained earlier, this line is then copied and plotted across the swing highs beginning with the first swing high between those two swing lows. All of this is then projected forward in a straight line. The lines are not changed if price breaches the line since much of the purpose of drawing the lines in the first place is to be alerted either to "oversold" and "overbought" conditions (i.e., price ventures outside the lines) or to a potential change in trend and even a trend reversal.
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I've attempted to work forward through the daily chart to re-create the channels that I would have drawn had I been observing the NQ back at the end of 2012. I hope it doesn't look like gobbledygook. Basically - it would start with the blue channel, then go green, then orange, then red. I not trying to be obtuse but I can't see what I'm missing? Is it that the green channel is valid much longer than I've depicted - basically leaping over the orange channel?
 
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