The first post of this thread suggests those posts which will cover the basics. If they don't answer your questions, then search "midpoint" and/or "mean" using my name.
Ghost of If You Can Draw A Straight Line
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The first post of this thread suggests those posts which will cover the basics. If they don't answer your questions, then search "midpoint" and/or "mean" using my name.
Db,
I see mentions of a chat room, how do I get access to it?
I see mentions of a chat room, how do I get access to it?
You're the stop guy. Did you read the posts referred to in the first post to this thread? If not, you should read them. There aren't that many. If you're interested in pursuing it, start and maintain a journal ("maintain" meaning every day). There are only a few that are maintained: game's, boru's, niko's, hooti's, a couple of others. Follow those for additional information as to how this works in real time.
lol, yep, that's me!
I have been reading those links, and I also found it useful to read the first thread in the series. It seems pretty simple, yet hard for me to implement. Hence my question about following along realtime. I shall start a journal and hopefully some bright sparks can steer me away from the rocks every now and again....
lol, yep, that's me!
I shall start a journal and hopefully some bright sparks can steer me away from the rocks every now and again....
Chat rooms aren't the answer that so many people think they are. The best teacher is the chart. If you've got a half-dozen voices going on at the same time, it's next to impossible to focus on what you ought to be focused on.
Start the journal. Post your prep work. Simtrade it during your session. Post a review afterward of what you did and whether or not you followed your plan and if not why not and do it all again for the next day. Yes, it's work, but at least it'll pay off.
Given the discrepancies among charts, I'm posting CME charts (if they don't know, we're all in trouble).
Note that the mean of the June TC (up) and the hourly TC (down) converge at 55+. Breaking through this suggests a move to the upper limit of the hourly TC at 90, which we've done. If we hold here and fail to make a higher high, the most probable outcome will be a return to the lower limit of the TC at what is now just below 3540.
Note that the mean of the June TC (up) and the hourly TC (down) converge at 55+. Breaking through this suggests a move to the upper limit of the hourly TC at 90, which we've done. If we hold here and fail to make a higher high, the most probable outcome will be a return to the lower limit of the TC at what is now just below 3540.
This came up today and requires clarification. It is a "problem" commonly faced by those who are focused on the lines rather than the price movement.
First, there is no trading range here except in hindsight. Once the demand line is broken, the attention shifts automatically to a short op. Given that this was so close to the top of the trend channel, looking for a short did not require a leap of faith.
Second, the first ret is at 1057 and the short is triggered. It's even confirmed with a lower low. But it stops there. One can therefore scratch on the next bar. Or he can draw a supply line as shown and use that for guidance. Either way he's out by 1101 and down by maybe a point (he can't go long off the 1100 bar because there's been a lower low).
Third, now that the supply line has been broken, his attention turns automatically to a long. This op comes up at 1106. Whether it is triggered or not depends on exactly where the trader places his entry stop. If it is not triggered, or if it is triggered and scratched, the trader will note that tho price makes a lower low, it is no lower than the swing low at 1058. Given this indication of a lack of sellers, he can try a long above the 1109 bar. This is triggered but it doesn't take off, either. By now, the trading range becomes obvious but it's too late to do anything about that. If one is long, he can wait to see if price fails to hold -- which it does at the 50% level -- or he can scratch and try again once price lifts itself off its little bench at 1114.
Note there are two lines here: a demand line that was drawn out of frame and a supply line to track the supply/demand balance after the demand line is broken. And that's it. What matters is what price is doing, i.e., what buyers and sellers are doing, not how many lines one can draw to track every tick. In fact, one need not have drawn any lines at all.
First, there is no trading range here except in hindsight. Once the demand line is broken, the attention shifts automatically to a short op. Given that this was so close to the top of the trend channel, looking for a short did not require a leap of faith.
Second, the first ret is at 1057 and the short is triggered. It's even confirmed with a lower low. But it stops there. One can therefore scratch on the next bar. Or he can draw a supply line as shown and use that for guidance. Either way he's out by 1101 and down by maybe a point (he can't go long off the 1100 bar because there's been a lower low).
Third, now that the supply line has been broken, his attention turns automatically to a long. This op comes up at 1106. Whether it is triggered or not depends on exactly where the trader places his entry stop. If it is not triggered, or if it is triggered and scratched, the trader will note that tho price makes a lower low, it is no lower than the swing low at 1058. Given this indication of a lack of sellers, he can try a long above the 1109 bar. This is triggered but it doesn't take off, either. By now, the trading range becomes obvious but it's too late to do anything about that. If one is long, he can wait to see if price fails to hold -- which it does at the 50% level -- or he can scratch and try again once price lifts itself off its little bench at 1114.
Note there are two lines here: a demand line that was drawn out of frame and a supply line to track the supply/demand balance after the demand line is broken. And that's it. What matters is what price is doing, i.e., what buyers and sellers are doing, not how many lines one can draw to track every tick. In fact, one need not have drawn any lines at all.
Sorry for the wrench in your chart posting, db. I just couldn't make my chart look the same and figured I was doing something wrong. But thanks also, Niko, as I didn't know about charting software using differing adjustment factors.
I found a number of posts referencing "midpoint", but one post resonated most with me. Figured I'd repost it in case any other newbies were having vocabulary issues.
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showpost.php?p=3877366&postcount=138
Thank you. However, I should point out before anybody picks this up and tries to run with it that the focus, again, should be on price and buyers and sellers and their individual agendas, not on lines. I could get into a whole thing about means and medians and modes and make it all sound like high-class gurubabble.
But the bottom line is whether or not one can detect strength or weakness in the extent of adverse incursions. If for example price appears to be falling but halts at or above a 50% retracement of the rally, this suggests strength. If it can't hold at that level, this suggests weakness, and easy shorts are on the agenda (the more difficult shorts may have been taken earlier).
As for trend channels, no, the "mean" is not really a mean. It's a median. But given the number of people who can't spell "lose", I'm reluctant to get into a statistics lesson. Especially since it doesn't matter all that much. Whether one calls the median of a trend channel the median or the mean or the middle or the halfway point doesn't matter nearly as much as knowing how to use that line as a gauge of strength or weakness or even potential trend change.
So, again, it's about strength and weakness, not about lines. The lines are just a reminder for those occasions when one gets busy with the trading session.
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