Ghost of If You Can Draw A Straight Line

[dbphoenix]

Thanks for the detailed response. When I mentioned "bar close through time" I just meant the close of a 1 minute bar is ticking up and down. I know the close is an arbitrary cross-section of the continuous movement of price based on time interval. I've been trying to define "pullback" in my own trading using bar closes for backtesting purposes because thats all I have.

I don't have anything faster than a minute but this one I get.

Defining pullbacks using "closes" may not do you much good. Depends on what hypothesis you're testing. Do you yet have one ready to go?

 

[green.green]

Defining pullbacks using "closes" may not do you much good. Depends on what hypothesis you're testing. Do you yet have one ready to go?

Yes - its basically a reversal setup off of a previous day's high or low. Usually there is a test of the low after the automatic rally after a selling climax but sometimes there is a "V" bottom low instead. I have no plan to take these but I wonder how fast the higher low forms before it takes off again.

 

[dbphoenix]

Yes - its basically a reversal setup off of a previous day's high or low. Usually there is a test of the low after the automatic rally after a selling climax but sometimes there is a "V" bottom low instead. I have no plan to take these but I wonder how fast the higher low forms before it takes off again.

This isn't so much a hypothesis as it is something to observe, a "to do". You can choose to ignore the V and focus on the higher low, which is a retracement. Choose your interval, e.g., 1m, determine how high the initial bounce is, how deep the retracement, how quickly and cleanly price resumes the upmove after the test. At that point, you've set up the preconditions for the hypothesis regarding entry and you can begin to look at exactly what entry point the market will sweep you into the trade. Will 1t be enough? Will 2pts be too many? How often is there an adverse incursion? How deep is it, if any? Instead of concerning yourself from the outset with the "close" of the bar or the "low" or "high" of the bar, you may find that none of that is particularly relevant.

 

[dbphoenix]

2+ weeks ago I posted some "where we are" charts, before we broke 3700. Given today's events, however, it's time to post updates.

The turning radius of a major market average is not unlike that of a cruise ship. If we are in fact preparing to revisit the lower limit of this trend channel, profiting from it may not be as easy as one might expect. In the meantime, 3720 takes on added importance.

0740: Failure at 3720.

 

[niko]

0816 Hinge in the hourly? Nope, thinking it twice I think we have to go above 17,50 to get a hinge.

 

[slugar]

This isn't so much a hypothesis as it is something to observe, a "to do". You can choose to ignore the V and focus on the higher low, which is a retracement. Choose your interval, e.g., 1m, determine how high the initial bounce is, how deep the retracement, how quickly and cleanly price resumes the upmove after the test. At that point, you've set up the preconditions for the hypothesis regarding entry and you can begin to look at exactly what entry point the market will sweep you into the trade. Will 1t be enough? Will 2pts be too many? How often is there an adverse incursion? How deep is it, if any? Instead of concerning yourself from the outset with the "close" of the bar or the "low" or "high" of the bar, you may find that none of that is particularly relevant.

if that's the case why not use a market order

 

[yertleturtle]

0740: Failure at 3720.

We've been inside the range defined by the 8:30 news bar. Buyers working on 3720 again.

 

[dbphoenix]

0740: Failure at 3720.

And we're now at 78.

This is so hard.

 

[niko]

at 66

 

[dbphoenix]

at 66

And now 50. 10pts away from my projection.