The midpoint of the midpoint? That may be important if traders are preparing for yet another trend change to a higher level. I never thought this little channel would last long, but it sure has made for a profitable three days.
Ghost of If You Can Draw A Straight Line
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The midpoint of the midpoint? That may be important if traders are preparing for yet another trend change to a higher level. I never thought this little channel would last long, but it sure has made for a profitable three days.
The midpoint of the rally from 3640 to 3688, i.e. 3664, which took place Thursday and Friday last week. Or just "the midpoint of the last weekly bar".
One of the things I like with some of these "simpler" levels (high/low/mid), especially for bar intervals that reflect some human condition, like the weekly and daily, is that they let me more easily contemplate and hypothesize about how other traders are feeling. (In that respect sometimes the open and close prices should be important also, for some bar intervals, even though price itself is continuous.)
What I mean is that even someone not familiar with the charts and the path it has taken will see on his screen whether or not he's up or down from last time he checked. So when we today were trading above both last weeks high and yesterday's midpoint, buyers should generally be happy. Buyers from last week are in profit. Many from yesterday were too.
Still, they're probably cautious, because both yesterday and on Monday price was slammed down from 3700ish. So when we today got indecision for a couple of hours in the same area, and then a break down with a re-test, I wasn't that surprised over the momentum that made us break through the lower TC limit. At least some part of yesterday's buyers were probably quick to sell before their profit turned into a loss.
Perhaps I'm making too big a deal of it, but it makes the price trajectory more interesting to follow when I'm imagining these levels as some kind of approximation for how much happiness or pain people are feeling when price travels with or against them.
So we did not remain back in the little TC overnite after all. Given that traders have rejected 1700+ twice now, and given the margin of error inherent in drawing the upper and lower limits (which are determined by the mean), and given that we came as close to the upper limit as price was overbought in December, and given that the ES came within a couple of points of its upper limit on Monday, I'm going to "hypothesize" that we're done here, and that we are packing our bags and loading up the car to visit the bottom of the larger trend channel from June. It's only 160pts away, so it's not like we're talking crash here, and there's always the possibility that traders may try for a new high. But given the lateral nature of these movements, I'm looking at a slightly higher probability of down.
But who the hell knows? The market will likely tell us today. I said last month that paying attention to both lateral support and resistance as well as the upper and lower limits of a trend channel can seem like rubbing one's stomach and patting one's head at the same time, but it pays to at least keep both these axes in mind when making rapidfire RT decisions. Looks like that will be particularly important today.
But who the hell knows? The market will likely tell us today. I said last month that paying attention to both lateral support and resistance as well as the upper and lower limits of a trend channel can seem like rubbing one's stomach and patting one's head at the same time, but it pays to at least keep both these axes in mind when making rapidfire RT decisions. Looks like that will be particularly important today.
Posting to subscribe - will contribute shortly...
I hope its okay to post my charts here even though I don't strictly adhere to DBP's teachings. I chart the NQ using a 133 tick chart - its the smallest tick chart my package offers. I do have a volume indicator I use when I trade but just for confirmation of the price action. I will leave this off my charts.
I also don't chart overnight data on any of my charts. It hasn't seemed to hurt me any. You will also see some blue and red lines on my charts. I don't usually color these lines but these lines help me to see where traders are leaning the wrong way. (The first red line shows were shorts got hurt thinking the daily high has being made). I also fan my supply/demand lines from the top.
Anyway - if my charts and comments are welcome I'll keep posting - if they are too far off the path I'll go back to lurking.
I also don't chart overnight data on any of my charts. It hasn't seemed to hurt me any. You will also see some blue and red lines on my charts. I don't usually color these lines but these lines help me to see where traders are leaning the wrong way. (The first red line shows were shorts got hurt thinking the daily high has being made). I also fan my supply/demand lines from the top.
Anyway - if my charts and comments are welcome I'll keep posting - if they are too far off the path I'll go back to lurking.
All charts are tick charts. The only difference is how they're bundled. If you like 133t, go for it.
As for leaving off the ON data, you're ignoring two-thirds of the information available to you. This is not wise.
But as to the charts, I suggest you open up a journal. That way you can keep track more easily and you'll be able to find people's comments more easily. If you care. If you don't care, of course, then there's really no point in posting the charts. But since you have, I assume you want reactions.
Given that things are gaining momentum, and current members have the time to daytrade i would like to propose that each one of us defines a goal for next week, one goal is enough, not trying to become billionaires by next friday, just learning how to do 1 new thing right. Some of you will want to improve observation skills, some of you are trying to decipher how to enter, some of you (like me) are stuck on scratching, some of you are trying to hold on to it for longer, some of you are trying to understand AMT and how to SAR. So why dont we all set one goal and post it, that will make us accountable to each other, and will also allow those members who have been able to solve something to help those in need.
Well, that´s just an idea, if you think is bad, just dump it. If not just post.
My goal for next friday is to have scratching solved.
I am posting this here, because Db suggested we could use this as a bulletin board, I hope I am not intruding if I am I can always go back to my low rating journal
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Well, that´s just an idea, if you think is bad, just dump it. If not just post.
My goal for next friday is to have scratching solved.
I am posting this here, because Db suggested we could use this as a bulletin board, I hope I am not intruding if I am I can always go back to my low rating journal
.Given that things are gaining momentum, and current members have the time to daytrade i would like to propose that each one of us defines a goal for next week, one goal is enough, not trying to become billionaires by next friday, just learning how to do 1 new thing right. Some of you will want to improve observation skills, some of you are trying to decipher how to enter, some of you (like me) are stuck on scratching, some of you are trying to hold on to it for longer, some of you are trying to understand AMT and how to SAR. So why dont we all set one goal and post it, that will make us accountable to each other, and will also allow those members who have been able to solve something to help those in need.
Well, that´s just an idea, if you think is bad, just dump it. If not just post.
My goal for next friday is to have scratching solved.
I am posting this here, because Db suggested we could use this as a bulletin board, I hope I am not intruding if I am I can always go back to my low rating journal
Sounds good to me. It's all a matter of focus. And studying the Zen thread.
So. A recap for a very interesting day.
See first the charts I posted this morning. We took off from the top of that trading range toward the top of the trend channel. We got to the mean at just about 3720, then reversed, and traveled all the way back to the bottom of the trading range (within a few points). We then reversed again and came all the way back to the top of the trading range at 3700.
And it's all magic. Posted in advance.
See first the charts I posted this morning. We took off from the top of that trading range toward the top of the trend channel. We got to the mean at just about 3720, then reversed, and traveled all the way back to the bottom of the trading range (within a few points). We then reversed again and came all the way back to the top of the trading range at 3700.
And it's all magic. Posted in advance.
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