Ghost of If You Can Draw A Straight Line

[dbphoenix]

Update. Price at an interesting point. I'm still in, just, price having poked through the newly drawn demand line. The proximity of the lower channel line (and my limited knowledge of AMT) is keeping me in, so looking for a move up from here - but it might be that price is turning over? We'll see.

I'm glad that you're continuing with this rather than making it just a one- or two-shot. But if you want to keep it together in a form that will enable people to follow what you're doing, I suggest you open up a journal as others have done.

 

[regiom]

I'm glad that you're continuing with this rather than making it just a one- or two-shot. But if you want to keep it together in a form that will enable people to follow what you're doing, I suggest you open up a journal as others have done.

Will do, thanks db.

 

[dbphoenix]

Given the angle of the ascent and the fact that trend channels are diagonal (and their upper limits increase day by day) and so on, the upper limit of the long-term trend channel and the level of the last swing high are beginning to coincide. This provides an upside of 3610 to 3630, which is a bit lower than what I had previously offered at 3660.

Of course when plotting a three-year trendline, even an error of a couple of degrees will amount to more than a few points. But this can serve as a ballpark range. What matters more is the state of supply v demand as we near these levels.

Well, we've passed 3610. 3630, anyone?

 

[dbphoenix]

Looks like we're going to hit 30 after all. If so, I see no reason right now not to go back to the previous estimate of 60, or even the original estimate of 80. But the answer to the question of "who's in charge?" is pretty clear.

 

[regiom]

Looks like we're going to hit 30 after all. If so, I see no reason right now not to go back to the previous estimate of 60, or even the original estimate of 80. But the answer to the question of "who's in charge?" is pretty clear.

db, the lower high and poke down through the channel not a cause for concern at this stage, at least on the hourly?

 

[dbphoenix]

db, the lower high and poke down through the channel not a cause for concern at this stage, at least on the hourly?

Remember that the line is in your head. Even though it's drawn to track the D/S balance, precision is not the order of the day. If you entered late, then, yes, I'd exit or scratch. Otherwise, I'd wait until the NY open to see what buyers do.

According to AMT, you can expect a test of the upper limit of the trend channel. OTOH, there has to be a reversal at some point. It all depends on when sellers run out of buyers.

 

[regiom]

According to AMT, you can expect a test of the upper limit of the trend channel.

Thanks, interesting. Hypothetically of course, if price did head south from here, the high around 3626 would then be considered the test?

 

[dbphoenix]

Remember that the line is in your head. Even though it's drawn to track the D/S balance, precision is not the order of the day. If you entered late, then, yes, I'd exit or scratch. Otherwise, I'd wait until the NY open to see what buyers do.

According to AMT, you can expect a test of the upper limit of the trend channel. OTOH, there has to be a reversal at some point. It all depends on when sellers run out of buyers.

Incidentally, you may have noticed how extremely short the hourly bars have become (or how tight the "waves" inside those bars have become). This makes the price risk of exiting and re-entering almost trivial.

 

[niko]

IMPORTANT NOTICE FOR CHAT MEMBERS.​

Given that the chat was opened to discuss the Straight Line Approach, and in order to avoid confusion to some lurkers, as of tomorrow we will be opening a new chatroom.

This one will have 4 prerequisites in order to be invited:

1. You MUST be interested in the SLA approach, if you wanna trade indicators or other kind of method, this is just not for you so don't waste your time.
2. You MUST be interested in doing the homework, this is not about fetching a bone from senior traders and trying to find shortcuts, If you wanna become a trader you have to be interested in putting in the work. That means starting with opening a journal.
3. You have to read at least the 10 first posts in the SLA threads, we will know you have given on what you post in your journals and what you ask in the chat. So please do.
4. If at the end you decide that SLA is not for you that is OK, but if you wanna be in the chatroom you have to talk SLA in the Chat and your journal must be SLA, or else what is the point.

Only 4 rules, and that is it. If you are interested, open your journal and explain what YOU understand of SLA and how do you plan to apply it, I will PM you the link.

Those who only want to lurk will be considered on a case by case basis, I don't wanna encourage passive learning, as I don't think that is the way to go. But if you just wanna watch PM me.

 

[dbphoenix]

I get questions about hinges, and I've made tons of posts on hinges, but who wants to read tons of posts? So I've attached a pdf below of something I wrote several years ago on hinges. It may be helpful. Or not.

Below is a chart of what is not a hinge. It is not a hinge because of the volume. This may be puzzling, but will be clear once the pdf is read. I bring this chart up today because it's today's chart and because it illustrates the sort of hinge that is not likely to work as expected.

Note that this looks like a hinge, but the volume is all wrong.