Ghost of If You Can Draw A Straight Line

[dbphoenix]

Quote from dbphoenix:

Having said that, the fact that we've remained above the halfway level suggests that this will be resolved to the upside. Eventually.

Price does in fact break to the upside, but it's turned back at the upper trendline.

 

[niko]

Quote from dbphoenix:

Price does in fact break to the upside, but it's turned back at the upper trendline.

I was about to point that out in the Bride´s thread, but I decided to check here first.

 

[Gringo]

Quote from dbphoenix:

Price does in fact break to the upside, but it's turned back at the upper trendline.

Meh. Just luck. You've been lucky for four decades Db. That's about it.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from Gringo:

Meh. Just luck. You've been lucky for four decades Db. That's about it.

Yeah. And just think how much better I could be without all those lines

 

[dbphoenix]

And it's turned back again.

These lines are just useless

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from dbphoenix:

When we last tuned in, the demand line (or support line or microuptrendline or whatever one wants to call it who cares) had been broken (NFP) and we were out. A short is then taken at the first retracement. This turned out to be not worth much, but rules are rules. After the supply line is broken, a long is taken at the first retracement.

I neglected to point out that a long taken after a lower low has less chance of succeeding than if it had been taken after a higher low. This would seem like a given. And one is always free to create a rule for himself that he will not take longs off lower lows or shorts off higher highs. However, the more rules to keep track of, the more likely one is going to screw up in real time. Therefore, the preferred course may be to go ahead and take the trade with the expectation that one may have to exit rather quickly. Even if one must do so, he may still earn a few points.

 

[dbphoenix]

Even though niko posted a graph of the trend channel (sixth post of the day), I did not. I've wanted to keep this as simple and focused as possible for the time being, and the trend channel seemed to be a bit much at this time. Nor have I addressed how to trade reversals here. Nonetheless, I did "call" the short on the Bride thread, and I hope someone was attentive enough to take advantage of it.

Be that as it may, I did not call it on this thread, so there is no trade posted here for today after the first short at 0500, which was, as noted earlier, a loser.

 

[dbphoenix]

A wrap-up chart for the day as a follow-on to the above post. Only the most pertinent lines were brought forward to the chart on the right.

 

[MadeMan]

Quote from dbphoenix:

A wrap-up chart for the day as a follow-on to the above post. Only the most pertinent lines were brought forward to the chart on the right.

thnx,, even thou i talk in hindsight, wouldnt the short be somewaht to risky ? as one would trade in the middle of a sloppy congestion /channel ? why take the hassle.. and not wait till price trades at the edges ? and go from there ?

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from MadeMan:

thnx,, even thou i talk in hindsight, wouldnt the short be somewaht to risky ? as one would trade in the middle of a sloppy congestion /channel ? why take the hassle.. and not wait till price trades at the edges ? and go from there ?

If you mean the posted short, that was explained in the first post for this morning.