Getting hammered - why?

N

nzbryant

Hi

Ive done rather well over the last four years. Even in the fall in the middle of last year (07). Was short and made money on 80% of trades. Now Im getting screwed.

1. Short QQQQ. Mkt bounces up 4%. Cover position. Next day mkt down. Readjust to be in line with downtrend. Mkt bounces.

2. Bought some Bear Stearns drops dramatically. Everyone knows stocks like that bounce the next day, so I enter. No. Fed pressures a deal over the weekend, shareholders get screwed from $29 down to $2 from close Friday to open Monday. Ive never seen anything like it. Its deceitful and a crime against shareholders.

3. Commodities (the DBC ETFC say) fall more in one day than ever. Look at the chart of DBC. And I was in commodities as a hedge against stocks.

Does anyone GET this mkt, and is making money consistently, other than some lucky bets?

Rod
 
I got creamed too, mostly selling OEX iron condors. I have the same story as you, a good few years and then not so good. Lately I've been making good money off the vix instead. maybe i'll recover my losses. i hope. ha
 
I got completely destroyed today. Transition into the bear market was difficult at first for me because I have never seriously traded in one.

Overall 2008 has been an average year for me. My system has a lot to do with momentum and the bear market has made me find a way to, most of the time, be one of the first ones in. Today though, wow, I got the hurt put on me. False signals all over the place as soon as the morning volume dried up.
 
The market is completely unpredictable and "news" and event driven in that timeframe and this can override natural market dynamics that can be redicted to an extent e.g. if heavily sold it sets up for a snapback through supply and demand dynamics. BSC was heavily sold.............. About the only thing that can be predicted is that if the market starts to break below a critical low a piece of "news" will be released and stocks will be gunned.

This is a highly contested market which means big moves either way and push and pull in the day timeframe. It is also completely and artificially distorted by being naturally capped on the upside and artificially supported on the downside.
 
nzbryant, take DBC as an example: how/why/when did you enter and what would you look for as a sell signal? Don't know what you are doing and until I see the why's I can't offer any advice.
 
"The market is completely unpredictable and "news" and event driven in that timeframe and this can override natural market dynamics that can be redicted to an extent e.g. if heavily sold it sets up for a snapback through supply and demand dynamics. BSC was heavily sold.............. About the only thing that can be predicted is that if the market starts to break below a critical low a piece of "news" will be released and stocks will be gunned.

This is a highly contested market which means big moves either way and push and pull in the day timeframe. It is also completely and artificially distorted by being naturally capped on the upside and artificially supported on the downside."

I completely agree with this. There are tons of dead beat companies, but so many them are i finance based and the fed is hell bent on preventing the inevitable. BSC is one of a thousand firms around the world that if they failed it will crush global markets. In essence the fed was trying to prevent counterparty risk, but in the end this seems futile.
 
I don't know why people feel like they have to try and beat this market, honestly.

I've had my money in A$ getting 7% interest for the past six months now (made nearly $40,000 bucks just in interest)

Just wait until things become clearer.

Warren Buffet says "Wait for the right pitch".

Don't try and hit it out of the park when you get a 'curve' but expect a 'slider'.
 
I get killed last friday on BSC, my brokage firm killed my position without my permission, I did not realize I get day trading margin call, lost 60% of my account value. other time I did pretty well I gained lot in Jan./Feb. and the beginning of march, I withdrawed 80% 0f my account, I am not a trend follower, I am panic sell buy trader and panic breakout buy trader, most time quickly grabed vertical bar and do the contrary and fliped it over quickly, just hold 10 minutes to 3hr. that BSC dropped to 40 under, then I put a limit order at 35, then 33, then 31, then 30, all quikly get filled almost in just one to two minutes, then I put another order around 28, get partially filled, and wait to see the short covering rally, gee, my position just get killed by my brokage firm, sold all my holding at the exact bottom, just 10 seconds late, BSC started to quckly rise from there to 36+!

the reason I get hammered is I am too bold or bullshit, I am too confident and did not realize I exceeded my margin requirements, also failed to predict the panic sell or stop loss sell extreme!

most time I did quite successful, like today's CIT, I bought CIT at 6.65 with 5kshares and sold it at 9.85, that is 30% gain. but feel very nervous about that since BSC!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top