I will address all Q's with responses where the Q's occur.
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Getting down and dirty is where the rubber meets the road ...
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I will address all Q's with responses where the Q's occur.
Quote from rainman2:
Why isn't bar 7 a VE ? Bar 11 seems to validate it... or is it that its a pt 3 of a different fractal ?
Here you see bars 6, 7 and 8 which make up a trend.
Trends are defined as a set of price bars contained in a parallelogram that begins and ends with an ftt.
This is found in Trend Following if you have my copy where I wrote this in the margin to correct a misconception written by covel.
there is a name for bar 7. Is is named "Not VE, Not FTT". As I said, all of this is Science and follows rules of paradigm theory and logic theory.
All cases of anything have to be considered. there are three signs in math that come up: <, > and =. A "NOT" is a way of covering the = under some circumstances.
We all are very lucky that markets are not, scientifically speaking, "continuous. This gave us a fork in the road. Here we are taking the less travelled road as Robert Forst mentioned after getting rejected by a chick in Vermont one night.
By see ing a VE didn't quite occur we can also see that an ftt did not occur. If you are this alert and rational you get to see that we need to "WAIT" logically speaking. Another logical name for WAITING for an answer is called "CONTINUING".
The diagram chows the point 1, 2 and 3 on bar 6 and the bottom of bar 7.
after the bottom of bar 7 we need to keep our eyes peeled for the ftt.
Some things can postpone an ftt. They are set forth earlier in "rubber".
A not VE, not FTT combo is a potponer. No bookmark either.
The Q of a differnt fractal is a long way off when the three bars are on a faster fractal beginning a slower fractal trend. BUT rainman is cool when it comes to considering just where this faster fractal is in the scheme of things. Bar 6 bottom could be a point 3 and so could the top of bar 8. For making money we just traded from the bottom of bar 6 to the top of bar 8 and banked the profits.
After hours is when we count chips and we find point 3's on different fractals.
Quote from TIKITRADER:
Monthly ES June 28 2010
Finishing out the month of June here is what the ES looks like so far.
Sym Pennant will be the 2 bar formation closing month of June . . . for the slow fractal Point 3 of the Monthly ES.
This will open the month of July with a May ,June, July Lateral Formation.
It looks like a little addition volume may pep down the short sentiment.
We are now after point 3 and we have crossed the RTL of the former and ended Bull retrace of the Depression.
In a normal lifetime a person usually may only have one post point 3 in a Depression. Since I was born in the Hoover admin, I get to go through two point 3's to the FTT's of two depressions. Getting to the FTT is going to take a while so I need to do some slow aging in bond.
This is a terrific time to develop a strong neutral bias. we all need to be immune to the Depression and be making money both ways. People who can make money aregong to haveto be helpful to others for the forseeable future.
Quote from TIKITRADER:
Jack why is volume removed from all of the chart snips ? Although easy enough to look at a chart with it and compare to your notes here.
I chose to begin slowly to make the point of how markets work. Yes the pattern is a V. P relationship deductively derived and free of all noise and anomalies. this non Black Swan position is hard to introduce to the financial industry and all of its myths from induction.
To see "trends" as units of price moves withoin a geometric containe that is unique is a mental effort that requires a person to be completely precise and simple and uncomplicated. There are few elements involved and they are as pure as the new wind driven snow on an alp. Snow on Wall Street, is very different and occurs in all seasons.
I introduced attention to sentiment within a trend container. I wanted to introduce the anti-whipsaw nature of rational thinking and critical thinking.
This is a non mythical thread as well.
The parallelogram appears as the mathematical container of the trend. It is Black Swan proof as well.
Looking at a parallelogram and market sentiment lets a person understand that nothing is forever. There is the beautiful human aspect of the markets.
Logic demands that we understand the simple rationality of human nature. We do this by, logically, rubbing two bars together. 10 cases emerge.
By thinking, we find that trends MUST overlap.
We can define the overlap as you would expect.
So on Sunday we spent four hours looking at Friday just as, on ET yesterday ,we looked at Monday.
We could see the beginning of the overlap AND if and when that could fail or succeed. We still, for money making could take all of the market's offer on the observable level of trendings.
This may sound a little philosophical and very accurate. That happens.
Human nature is measured in markets by looking at what the humans are doing. V and P do this but I felt it was better to start with just making all the offer and not missing any tick of profit that was possible for each segment of sentiment expressed by the humans doing the active trading. someone said the chart was even better than the news. Well it is since the news is an "outsider" game for selling advertising.
I can hardly wait until the news covers the building of the tube in the dome.
So now we see how V and P work with the rtl's, ltl's, bookmarks, pt 1, 2, 3 and ftt's. It is the way of the pattern.
Now we can do the pattern from ftt to ftt and save doing a lot of reversals to just stay on the right side of the market. we still make every penny of each trend segment and we have the human sentiment as shown by both market variables.
I can hardly wait.
This may seem "slowly" to you Jack but I have a humble request. Would it be possible to take this even "slower" and just use 5 min ES and perhaps 2 min ym? I would like to think it is possible to be consistently profitable without the use of the finer tools. If we have to be proficient at using dom, str/squ and OTR charts in order to follow this commentary then I think many of us are going to struggle to keep up with the 5th grader....Quote from jack hershey:
I chose to begin slowly to make the point of how markets work.
Quote from TIKITRADER:
Also Jack would you please review this monthly ES just posted and highlight what you see at this time and in the near future
It is an incredibly slow bar to bar analysis on a monthly chart but it does all play out the same regardless of time frame. Just need a lot of patience for this one.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2883889
The monthlies are terrific. Using the trends works quite well.
In the recent Bull retace, there were many considerations that kept things real.
In most Longterm trends, the trend goes through phases. At the beginning there is the VE consideration. From March on that could have been possible up to a certain point.
After that dropped off the table, the faster fractal moves could have been in a repetitive loop of dom and non dom all within the established container. that didn't happen to any extent.
What did happen that telegraphedthe end of the Bull retrace was the period where the price could not make it to the LTL and instead volatility shut down and the Bull ended with a more or less saucer formation. It was good to see the saucer come into view and go through its paces.
Now we are in the main part of the Depression after point 3.
WE are in the part where we can have increased faster fractal (like on the Bull retrace fractal level) activity such as VE's across the LTL of this short trend after point 3.
What I sense in the public arena is the "HOPE" kind of characteristics. A good example is how the talking heads handle the FOMC wording to try to squeese a lot of "Hope" out of the "short post point 3 real global sentiment.
Quote from TIKITRADER:
I think it was rainman who gave this link to JH one time to post very easy videos. I tried it out and it was extremely easy. Capture screen, record it including voice, and instantly post it. All free
http://screenr.com/
and:
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Quote from jack hershey:
I would do this as videos if ET could handle videos.
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May I suggest that you upload videos to YouTube.com and then post the link here?
i have seen a few youtubers that have dealt with the markets.
the IBDMeetUp videos did work for me since they were interactive.
the time limit on screenr is a constraint since an idea is longer than screenr permits.
What I think is going to work out is using the Tucson office where several traders work together using their screens and a common large wall screen.
The point of video is the multi-sensory part and the interactive part with other people.
Books and forums do not work since they are not interactive and they do not have a drill repetition characteristic.
Since each day is recorded, a day can be reviewed and dealt with in about 40 video minutes. If I did about 50 in sequence that might be helpful.
Right now, I am going forward and focussing on what gives people headaches. The V, P and leading indicator telegraphing that makes turns invinceable when critical thinking is deployed.
I used to call it putting the pieces together. By having others really zap the turns in real time and interacting with the market, I think we can get across to others how to build their minds.
Quote from dkm:
This may seem "slowly" to you Jack but I have a humble request. Would it be possible to take this even "slower" and just use 5 min ES and perhaps 2 min ym? I would like to think it is possible to be consistently profitable without the use of the finer tools. If we have to be proficient at using dom, str/squ and OTR charts in order to follow this commentary then I think many of us are going to struggle to keep up with the 5th grader....
No finer tools are required as you say. If a person uses them he is just making more money.
I put up 20 pics yesterday to make the point of always taking all the ticks of the market's offer.
This presents problems to those who omit drawing the rtl's , ltl's's and the bookmarks. All the points involved are ends of bars, meaning tops and bottoms.
Putting a bookmanrk on an ftt is easy but getting the time of the ftt is apparently hard for a few.
A lot of people have put up logs of their monitoring and when those are reviewed it is easy to see when the ftt occurs and when the reversal was done.
Usually the tune up on a log and chart gives an additional 15 points a day in profits.
If a person uses a horizontal line where he rverses, then he can more easily see where to wash to keep making all the points in a trend segment of several bars. That is just a housekeeping function. BUT the bookmark is there as a sentiment measure.
By only taking the ftt's as trades on the next slower fractal a lot of reversals are omitted (you should annotate everything still, though).
As everyone has been seeing the price of the ftt is there a long time for a person to take the trade. Most people are doubters about when ftt's are occurring. I think that is part of the head hurting for some.
As we see when V is done, the V gives the ftt before price gives the ftt.
One of the CW myths has this the other way around. Too bad for CW.
Today started with the pattern that looked like R2R 2B 2R 2B 2R. There were few bookmarks, as well.
dominant volume was red and a person added a contract on that dominant red volume.
If a person was using the pattern, he could see the points of the pattern for all 8 bars whereby the slower pattern wqs observable. Th two moves (long non dom and short, dom ) where as enjoyable as the initial pattern.
The P to T to P to T to P on the volume was in synch with the pattern price moves. This was a 50% per contract profit when the non dom then dom was there to handle the next 2B and 2R. Two 50% meant to add another contract at the end of the 2R
Was it possible to still be coherent for the long that followed?
there was a P and T and a P to get to B2B. This is point 2 and you may be looking for point 3 on a non dom red move. taht happened and the trtend went to an FTT on peaking volume that was dominant black.
fortunately, after two demonstrations of the pattern, another demonstration occurred. It was about more than 10 points per contract by that time so another contract was added from profits.
Here we were with 1 contract yesterday am and now part way through the day using the pattern we now have no Black Swans and four non Black Swan contracts in the account.
the P to T to P repeats to begin a B2B 2R 2B and a non dom 2R follows and a weak PACE changed little black 2B ends the pattern.
here is what the laziest guy on the block says at that FTT on the 2B: "I am going short and waiting for volume to peak after I get back from lunch". If he only goes to lunch for 45 minutes his dream came true.
He missed seeing the usual for the outside bar which counts for two points in a pattern. It was as usual a point 2 followed by a point 3. what comes after a point 3 on increasing dominant volume? answer: The end of lunch.
after yet another B2B 2R 2B we get another OB point 2 and point 3 test on an R2R 2B 2R that finally ends on bar 76 after a 14 point short run down where you had a R2R 2B 2R 2B 2R to complete. notice the @b is non dom and the 2R is dom.
Volume is part of trading. yeaterday we saw the way parts of the pattern were constructed using ftt's and bookmarks on the fastest observable fractal.
today we used those little guys to build the V, P pattern.
you see the P to T to P for the first move (B2B or R2R). All P to T's were there next as non doms going from point 2 to point 3. then we finished with a Dom to get an FTT. Sometime we stayed INSIDE the parallelogram and did another 2B and 2R or vice versa.
everytime overlap ended it was on a T of volume; then a dom sries of bars followed to get to a P and finish the first move of the pattern.
I know I did not go slowly. I just did it.
As Nike says: JUST DO IT!!!!!.
Now you know why Black swans do not wear sneakers. They are fictitious ducks.
Do you know why australia is called out back???? It is because that is where a Japanese car was discovered being driven by Black Swans not wearing sneakers.
For tommorow we are in a long pattern after point 3 and the last bar (OB) was two points (sub fractal level) where the first point was point 3 and the last point is a bookmarked FTT of a long pattern. Green line at the top of bar 81.
For the open we look at the bookmark going horizontally thru space to the right. The degapping tells to use it (the bookmark is above the opening value.
As the Marines say: "There (fuking) fore, we are long on the open to TRADE THE PATTERN" .... and if we hit the bookmark we stay long and we are on the right side of the market and head to a new FTT (long) to end the prior long of yesterday (meaning tomorrow that it was today).
Since the OB was a subfractal OB, there was a fanning on the bottom of the OB (new point 3); therefore the pattern did not complete and it has to go to a new FTT to complete.
FOR TRADING THE SUBFRACTALS OF THE PATTERN, THE OPEN IS A SHORT ENTRY AND WE REVERSE LONG WHEN WE GO THROUGH THE BOOKMARK.
Here you see in this "carryover" post I have gieven the instructions for two levels of trading. when you debrief, decide what fractal you are trading on and act accordingly. since you do know the order of events for all the nested fractals, this is not a difficult debriefing issue.
In CW people trade by doing bets and hoping and setting stops and not trading much capital. All good ideas for these types of probabilistic types of inductive thinkers.
Miixing CW and the PEP paradigm leads to hurting heads. If you are a CW type person, then do not expect to understand what is written here since it is a different type of long term memory mind building.
For the open we look at the bookmark going horizontally thru space to the right. The degapping tells to use it (the bookmark is above the opening value.
As the Marines say: "There (fuking) fore, we are long on the open to TRADE THE PATTERN" .... and if we hit the bookmark we stay long and we are on the right side of the market and head to a new FTT (long) to end the prior long of yesterday (meaning tomorrow that it was today).
Since the OB was a subfractal OB, there was a fanning on the bottom of the OB (new point 3); therefore the pattern did not complete and it has to go to a new FTT to complete.
FOR TRADING THE SUBFRACTALS OF THE PATTERN, THE OPEN IS A SHORT ENTRY AND WE REVERSE LONG WHEN WE GO THROUGH THE BOOKMARK.
Here you see in this "carryover" post I have gieven the instructions for two levels of trading. when you debrief, decide what fractal you are trading on and act accordingly. since you do know the order of events for all the nested fractals, this is not a difficult debriefing issue.
In CW people trade by doing bets and hoping and setting stops and not trading much capital. All good ideas for these types of probabilistic types of inductive thinkers.
Miixing CW and the PEP paradigm leads to hurting heads. If you are a CW type person, then do not expect to understand what is written here since it is a different type of long term memory mind building.