That's the issue with you; not here. The probability of a virus mutating is proportional to its prevalence. Lowering the rate of transmission decreases the number of mutations that appear in a given period of time. This holds for all viruses, without exception.
Get Vaxxed Or Lose Your Job?
- Thread starter Scataphagos
- Start date
As far as mutations and new lines, that cat is mostly out of the bag now. Hopefully. Whatever genetic combination Covid-19 has to offer, we are going to see it, probably no matter what we do.
I suppose it is not all bad news. Democrats will pay a political price for mandates, including losing some union and independent support. Perhaps more significantly, it will be harder to fire up their base to vote, as apparently a significant number of minorities are still vaccine hesitant. As far as the Republican base, they don’t need any firing up. So more votes for Republicans and less turnout of Democrats than otherwise, should swing some otherwise close races. Who knows, maybe if Republicans win enough seats, they may be able run things again, including national health policy.
Lets do some back of napkin math on r0. Not r0 that measures the infectiousness of a virus, rather r0 of virus mutations. Currently, there are over a dozen significant Covid-19 mutations. I’ll use 12 as the current number, although I sure there are more circulating among us right now. Covid-19 arrived at the end of 2019. Call it December of 2019. It is now October, 2021. So 12 major variants in 22 months. However, we only started with 1 variant. Roughly figuring a variant doubling rate of just under every six months gets us to the 12 major Covid-19 variants we see now. If this trend continues, then we are looking at 24 variants by April, 2022, or about 2 new variants per month, on average. Now consider vaccine development time. The last vaccine rush job took about 12 months. I would imagine major Covid-19 variants will plateau soon, if they have not started to already. So in one sense, I may be appearing to offer evidence in support for a vaccine mandate, however it is way too late to make a difference at this point, especially since vaccines may not offer any protection against these new strains. Hopefully my calculations of Covid mutations are grossly inaccurate, but one thing I do have high confidence on is there will be great resentment among those forced to get Covid-19 vaccinations. The resentment will likely cause negative long term economic, social, and political impacts beyond what Covid would do.
There are some lessons we must learn from this pandemic before the next pandemic hits. We must remember the next pandemic may be less “Gentle” than this one.
1. Don’t politicize the virus the nest time. Get the media and politicians on board with this. Not all professional are entitled to “Free speech”, as already known with attorneys and doctors, for example.
2. All countries must take immediate and decisive action simultaneously to reduce the spread of a pathogen of concern. With tens of thousands of people traveling by air, a virus can go global in a matter of hours, not even considering a coordinated terrorist attack.
3. Basic public education must require everyone to become as proficient at crossing the street as avoiding infections. People need to have effective PPE available along with knowing how to properly use PPE. We are still way behind in that regard.
There are other measures, of course. But the items listed above are fundamental.
I’m going to wind up my pandemic related posts. There are only so many ways to say something. Understanding the science behind pathogens can help with predictions and determining the best course of action. However, judgement is still required in determining if a threat is serious enough to go all-in against, sort of what we are doing against Covid. There are only so many times we can go all-in before we permanently wreck our economy and social fabric, so let us save that move for the most dangerous of threats.
You're arguing in favor of mandates now, whether you realize it or not, and against the insanity of politicizing the science behind the fight against the pandemic. So why your support for the man single handedly responsible for politicizing the U.S. response to the virus? -- calling it a "hoax", then acting like it was no big deal after he was infected, rushed to the hospital and given monoclonal antibodies at a time when few others could access this treatment. Without these measures he would likely be dead now, and the entire world would be rid of this load of shit visited upon us. People that are dead now because they listened to Trump would be alive. There would have been no failed coup attempt, and no failed attempt to stop the counting of the Electoral College votes and throw the election into the House, and no additional people dying and going to jail because of the Jan 6th insurrection. The cracy politicizing of the pandemic, the refusal to accept the election results, the endless lying about the election, the excess covid deaths that didn't have to happen, and the attempts to destroy our democracy on Jan 6 are all due to Trump.
And even after being a twice impeached one term President who suffered the worst election loss since Roosevelt defeated Hoover he still has not stopped with the lies and the threats to our democracy. He misleads, and steals money from his own followers, he even pardoned Steve Bannon who ripped off Trump's own flock of hapless idiots by taking contributions from them for a Wall and then stealing the money. His niece described Trump correctly when she called him the most dangerous man in America!
And even after being a twice impeached one term President who suffered the worst election loss since Roosevelt defeated Hoover he still has not stopped with the lies and the threats to our democracy. He misleads, and steals money from his own followers, he even pardoned Steve Bannon who ripped off Trump's own flock of hapless idiots by taking contributions from them for a Wall and then stealing the money. His niece described Trump correctly when she called him the most dangerous man in America!
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Reply to your post is inline, below:
QUOTE="piezoe, post: 5472340, member: 45984"]You're arguing in favor of mandates now, whether you realize it or not, and against the insanity of politicizing the science behind the fight against the pandemic.
I discussed these points in the post you responded to. One other point, with all the different Covid-19 variants out there currently, are the vaccines manufactured in late 2020 and available for distribution on January, 2021 really that relevant right now? By extension, is not the idea of a mandate seriously depreciated?
So why your support for the man single handedly responsible for politicizing the U.S. response to the virus? -- calling it a "hoax", then acting like it was no big deal after he was infected, rushed to the hospital and given monoclonal antibodies at a time when few others could access this treatment.
Trump was necessary after the oppressive Obama years and I am happy with Trump’s performance overall. Biden is also apparently happy with some aspects of Trump’s performance because he has left some of Trump’s accomplishments alone so far. Yes, Trump had some D’oh moments. However, don’t try to rewrite history on the Democrat politicalization of Covid. The posted articles on ET are a time capsule that includes Trump being blamed for Covid deaths. Remember, as soon as the WHO issued their alert, Trump closed our border to China and he authorized the lockdown with the goal of flattening the curve to avoid hospital overcrowding. We did not know how severe Covid was going to be at the time and no vaccines were manufactured yet. Fortunately, it turned out Covid is only a moderate health hazard, making extreme countermeasures unnecessary, if not counterproductive.
More Americans will die of Covid under the Biden Administration than Trump in spite of Biden having the vaccine for basically for his whole term. The preceding statement is an example of counterproductive politicalization, but it is type of thing the Democrats started. Let us end the harmful politicalization of viruses where one side wins at the cost of the other side, resulting in debates that are more about postering than sound pandemic response. Think: If Covid had been a serious pathogen…
My perception is Biden and his cabinet are smart, dedicated, and mean well, but it is like they are in some sort of bubble that keeps them from anticipating how people will react to their policies or even first level cause and effect. Do they not have a list of entities and perspectives, how these entities would be effected by legislation or policy, what the likely reactions of these entities would be, and what appropriate followup responses could be? This is politics and governance 101, or God sakes. Intelligent, yet clueless? c’mon, man.
I want the Biden Administration to perform well because we cannot afford to lose three years, especially given all the things going on right now.
Without these measures he would likely be dead now, and the entire world would be rid of this load of shit visited upon us.
I see you as one of the smartest and clearest thinkers in the politics section of ET. Your statement above is not an example of that. It is an emotional statement that is not supported by facts. As far as a few people suffering for taking some of Trump’s off-the-cuff remarks seriously, it is sad, but it did not significantly worsen the progression of the pandemic. If anything, the over selling of vaccines as a cure all during the Biden Administration has led to “Vaccine overconfidence” where people stop taking precautions against exposure. The fact is, stated vaccine efficacy is based on peak values seen two weeks after injection under the study’s tightly controlled conditions. Real world vaccine efficacy is less and decreases steadily over time as new variants become dominant. So the vaccinated letting their guard down has to cause a significant number of infections, especially as the months increase from last vaccination. Remember, the value of a subsequent “Legacy” vaccination declines as new Covid mutations emerge.
People that are dead now because they listened to Trump would be alive. There would have been no failed coup attempt, and no failed attempt to stop the counting of the Electoral College votes and throw the election into the House, and no additional people dying and going to jail because of the Jan 6th insurrection. The cracy politicizing of the pandemic, the refusal to accept the election results, the endless lying about the election, the excess covid deaths that didn't have to happen, and the attempts to destroy our democracy on Jan 6 are all due to Trump.
I addressed the Covid aspects of Trump’s leadership earlier. The Biden Administration needs to turn things around. It shows in Biden’s polls, in direction of country polls, and with declining consumer confidence surveys. These numbers are approaching dangerous territory where it can manifest into reduced consumer spending and by extension, a weaker economy. With all the debt the Government has taken on recently, we absolutely cannot afford to go into a recession right now.
And even after being a twice impeached one term President who suffered the worst election loss since Roosevelt defeated Hoover he still has not stopped with the lies and the threats to our democracy. He misleads, and steals money from his own followers, he even pardoned Steve Bannon who ripped off Trump's own flock of hapless idiots by taking contributions from them for a Wall and then stealing the money. His niece described Trump correctly when she called him the most dangerous man in America![/QUOTE
You seem more worried about Trump in three years than you are about Covid right now. We need to focus on the immediate issues in front of us now. Of which, Covid is arguably not the top issue.
The way to keep Trump at bay is solid governance. Mandates are prima fascia evidence of weak leadership. Failed leadership can be either failing to develop an appropriate response based on the available evidence, as in mandating vaccinations for a virus of only moderate impact, or it can be ineffectively issuing a call to action to the American people when facing a serious threat. Biden’s super powers are supposed to be administrative and understanding how DC works. I’ll give Biden a mulligan on leadership. However, the mandate is a policy error because the Covid-19 pandemic is not serious enough and our tools are not effective enough to accept alienating about 35% of the US population for at least a generation.
QUOTE="piezoe, post: 5472340, member: 45984"]You're arguing in favor of mandates now, whether you realize it or not, and against the insanity of politicizing the science behind the fight against the pandemic.
I discussed these points in the post you responded to. One other point, with all the different Covid-19 variants out there currently, are the vaccines manufactured in late 2020 and available for distribution on January, 2021 really that relevant right now? By extension, is not the idea of a mandate seriously depreciated?
So why your support for the man single handedly responsible for politicizing the U.S. response to the virus? -- calling it a "hoax", then acting like it was no big deal after he was infected, rushed to the hospital and given monoclonal antibodies at a time when few others could access this treatment.
Trump was necessary after the oppressive Obama years and I am happy with Trump’s performance overall. Biden is also apparently happy with some aspects of Trump’s performance because he has left some of Trump’s accomplishments alone so far. Yes, Trump had some D’oh moments. However, don’t try to rewrite history on the Democrat politicalization of Covid. The posted articles on ET are a time capsule that includes Trump being blamed for Covid deaths. Remember, as soon as the WHO issued their alert, Trump closed our border to China and he authorized the lockdown with the goal of flattening the curve to avoid hospital overcrowding. We did not know how severe Covid was going to be at the time and no vaccines were manufactured yet. Fortunately, it turned out Covid is only a moderate health hazard, making extreme countermeasures unnecessary, if not counterproductive.
More Americans will die of Covid under the Biden Administration than Trump in spite of Biden having the vaccine for basically for his whole term. The preceding statement is an example of counterproductive politicalization, but it is type of thing the Democrats started. Let us end the harmful politicalization of viruses where one side wins at the cost of the other side, resulting in debates that are more about postering than sound pandemic response. Think: If Covid had been a serious pathogen…
My perception is Biden and his cabinet are smart, dedicated, and mean well, but it is like they are in some sort of bubble that keeps them from anticipating how people will react to their policies or even first level cause and effect. Do they not have a list of entities and perspectives, how these entities would be effected by legislation or policy, what the likely reactions of these entities would be, and what appropriate followup responses could be? This is politics and governance 101, or God sakes. Intelligent, yet clueless? c’mon, man.
I want the Biden Administration to perform well because we cannot afford to lose three years, especially given all the things going on right now.
Without these measures he would likely be dead now, and the entire world would be rid of this load of shit visited upon us.
I see you as one of the smartest and clearest thinkers in the politics section of ET. Your statement above is not an example of that. It is an emotional statement that is not supported by facts. As far as a few people suffering for taking some of Trump’s off-the-cuff remarks seriously, it is sad, but it did not significantly worsen the progression of the pandemic. If anything, the over selling of vaccines as a cure all during the Biden Administration has led to “Vaccine overconfidence” where people stop taking precautions against exposure. The fact is, stated vaccine efficacy is based on peak values seen two weeks after injection under the study’s tightly controlled conditions. Real world vaccine efficacy is less and decreases steadily over time as new variants become dominant. So the vaccinated letting their guard down has to cause a significant number of infections, especially as the months increase from last vaccination. Remember, the value of a subsequent “Legacy” vaccination declines as new Covid mutations emerge.
People that are dead now because they listened to Trump would be alive. There would have been no failed coup attempt, and no failed attempt to stop the counting of the Electoral College votes and throw the election into the House, and no additional people dying and going to jail because of the Jan 6th insurrection. The cracy politicizing of the pandemic, the refusal to accept the election results, the endless lying about the election, the excess covid deaths that didn't have to happen, and the attempts to destroy our democracy on Jan 6 are all due to Trump.
I addressed the Covid aspects of Trump’s leadership earlier. The Biden Administration needs to turn things around. It shows in Biden’s polls, in direction of country polls, and with declining consumer confidence surveys. These numbers are approaching dangerous territory where it can manifest into reduced consumer spending and by extension, a weaker economy. With all the debt the Government has taken on recently, we absolutely cannot afford to go into a recession right now.
And even after being a twice impeached one term President who suffered the worst election loss since Roosevelt defeated Hoover he still has not stopped with the lies and the threats to our democracy. He misleads, and steals money from his own followers, he even pardoned Steve Bannon who ripped off Trump's own flock of hapless idiots by taking contributions from them for a Wall and then stealing the money. His niece described Trump correctly when she called him the most dangerous man in America![/QUOTE
You seem more worried about Trump in three years than you are about Covid right now. We need to focus on the immediate issues in front of us now. Of which, Covid is arguably not the top issue.
The way to keep Trump at bay is solid governance. Mandates are prima fascia evidence of weak leadership. Failed leadership can be either failing to develop an appropriate response based on the available evidence, as in mandating vaccinations for a virus of only moderate impact, or it can be ineffectively issuing a call to action to the American people when facing a serious threat. Biden’s super powers are supposed to be administrative and understanding how DC works. I’ll give Biden a mulligan on leadership. However, the mandate is a policy error because the Covid-19 pandemic is not serious enough and our tools are not effective enough to accept alienating about 35% of the US population for at least a generation.
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Your response is too illogical to warrant much of a rejoinder from me. I can tell you that as far as i'm concerned you are living in a world created for you by the charismatic Donald Trump, the most evil man to be encountered in American Politics in my lifetime. You do not have the intellectual ability to extract yourself from the fictitious world he has created for you in order to gain your adoration, which his clinical narcissism craves above all else...
I am happy, however, to inform you that the current vaccines are relevant! So far the mRNA vaccines hit all the common strains. Eventually, if idiots keep refusing to get vaccinated there may arise a strain that requires a new vaccine, but so far that's not been necessary.
The majority who get vaccinated also reduce the chances of the unvaccinated becoming infected. This is a two edged sword for some of us. On the one hand, we want these morons to get vaccinated to slow, or stop, the arrival of new covid strains capable of infecting humans; on the other hand, we know that if they do get vaccinated they have less chance of dying from covid and that's a bad thing for society and the human gene pool. Those of us who got vaccinated at the earliest possible time don't deserve to have these morons visited upon us.
I am happy, however, to inform you that the current vaccines are relevant! So far the mRNA vaccines hit all the common strains. Eventually, if idiots keep refusing to get vaccinated there may arise a strain that requires a new vaccine, but so far that's not been necessary.
The majority who get vaccinated also reduce the chances of the unvaccinated becoming infected. This is a two edged sword for some of us. On the one hand, we want these morons to get vaccinated to slow, or stop, the arrival of new covid strains capable of infecting humans; on the other hand, we know that if they do get vaccinated they have less chance of dying from covid and that's a bad thing for society and the human gene pool. Those of us who got vaccinated at the earliest possible time don't deserve to have these morons visited upon us.
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