GET THE HELL OUT

[makloda]

I am grateful I am not trying to force the market to do what I think it should according to my personal logic. So much easier on my stomach to unemotionally follow price action.

 

[ByLoSellHi]

I'm responding to REAL data. I'm not trying to bend the market to my perceptions. Economic data is truly horrible.

I forgot to add that there are an expected loss of jobs of 70k on Wall Street, and 200k, in the banking sector generally (Bloomberg).

If you want to set up your positions now, hoping to catch the bottom, good luck. The economic trend is down, it will drive earnings lower, and you'll lose on your principle while waiting for a real turnaround, which can only be spawned by better economic data.

Sometimes, there is fire behind the smoke.

 

[Bowgett]

Quote from ByLoSellHi:

I'm responding to REAL data. I'm not trying to bend the market to my perceptions. Economic data is truly horrible.

I forgot to add that there are an expected loss of jobs of 70k on Wall Street, and 200k, in the banking sector generally (Bloomberg).

If you want to set up your positions now, hoping to catch the bottom, good luck. The economic trend is down, it will drive earnings lower, and you'll lose on your principle while waiting for a real turnaround, which can only be spawned by better economic data.

Sometimes, there is fire behind the smoke.

The REAL data is in the past. Try looking forward.

 

[makloda]

ByLo, I am not disagreeing with the economic trend being to the downside. There are many problems in the economy and profit estimates might be on the optimistic side.

But all that doesn't mean there is a 100% guarantee markets will go down in a straight line from here.

 

[S2007S]

Quote from MrDODGE:

The market no longer cares about economic numbers. We have been going up on bad news. Looks like a recession is already priced into the market.

A recession is not priced into this market just yet, there is still downside left for the economy and market, to think the economy is ready for another 5 year bull run is foolish.

 

[ForexPro]

When do you guys know when to short? Do you just think we've gone up a lot, its over-valued, i'll go in? Or do you look for specific levels or situations?

 

[balda]

Quote from S2007S:

A recession is not priced into this market just yet, there is still downside left for the economy and market, to think the economy is ready for another 5 year bull run is foolish.

I think recession is priced in.

Is it going to be a mild or severe recession? That what market doesn't know yet.

 

[H30]

Can somebody answer me this question, is it possible for the market to price in negative profits for the next two years?

The only thing that is left to drive this market going forward is profit forget about the fed their 15 minutes of fame is over.

 

[makloda]

Quote from balda:
Is it going to be a mild or severe recession? That what market doesn't know yet.

That's exactly the way I would interpret it at this juncture. Is this another 1974 (steep recession resulting in very high unemployment) or 1990 (shallow recession with lots of bank failures but stock market and unemployment weren't dragged down as badly)? It feels as if the market is weighing each new incoming datapoint against these two alternatives.

 

[jackstone54]

Last few recessions there was a 30% correction of the market from its high. That will take us around 1100 on the SPX. I say there is more downside to go from here.