Get The Hell Out Part V

Quote from ByLoSellHi:
I've yet to be wrong on 4 out of my last 4 macro calls.

I doubt I'll be wrong on this call, either.

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Pekelo, what exactly is wrong with liquidity preservation?

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If you're a truly good trader, which I am not, and admit it (and I'd argue that trading is extremely difficult LONG TERM, in terms of producing consistent net profits, much to the chagrin of many here), you're golden, IMO.
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You said you were pessimistic on the economy and stock markets at SP500 1300-1400. You don't have to be a great trader to make a killing with that kind of conviction as we dropped 50% from the level of your original call.

Great trading skills maybe give you an edge to "save" 0.2% here and 0.3% there as you enter and exit your positions. But that does not matter much as your profit targets (20+%) are much larger than that. The bottom line is you don't need to be another ET tape reading/scalping/day trading wizard in order to make money with a basket of longer term trading ideas that play out over weeks/months rather than hours.
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

Pekelo, what exactly is wrong with liquidity preservation?
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When you said the shit is gonna hit the fan at SPX 1500, you were very right. When you repeated it at 1200 and 800 you were still right.

But at 700 we kind of got it finally. Everybody knows about the bearmarket by now. What you should realize that in this bearmarket there are rallies of 100-200 points, so one can play the long side too. By the way the fastest move was UPWARD, 205 points in 48 hours, last October...

Also if things get so bad that we have to grow our own food, well 90% of the people can't do anything about it, so we might as well just go on and live our lifes without the fearmongering. Or move to Amishland...

Not to mention a negative post from you every hour 7 days a week is getting redundant and depressive. So unless you are heavily short, and trying to influence the market please take note:

We got your message!!!
 
Quote from makloda:

You said you were pessimistic on the economy and stock markets at SP500 1300-1400. You don't have to be a great trader to make a killing with that kind of conviction as we dropped 50% from the level of your original call.

Great trading skills maybe give you an edge to "save" 0.2% here and 0.3% there as you enter and exit your positions. But that does not matter much as your profit targets (20+%) are much larger than that. The bottom line is you don't need to be another ET tape reading/scalping/day trading wizard in order to make money with a basket of longer term trading ideas that play out over weeks/months rather than hours.
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You're only looking at the upside there. Correctly knowing the market is going to tank X% is not enough justification to go short. You must also know that the market is not going to rise Y% or more before it falls X% from your entry price. The latter requires timing aka trading ability.

Good ideas are only sufficient by themselves on the long side, and even then without timing it is problematic - you must either withstand gigantic drawdowns or trade very small and accept lowish returns. Without timing, someone could have been short the S&P from 1000 back in 2003-04. Right now they would be ahead, but they would have spent 5-6 years underwater by up to 60% before finally making a 20% return on the position.
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:


The global equity crash that began 18 months ago will get a massive second wind as warped quantitative easing fails to accomplish Bernanke's desires (unless he desires to destroy the American Economy).
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I agree - definite second wind coming
 
Quote from Redneck trader:

Well Sir if you would...


Please explain to a dumb redneck - why I would want to get out


Thanks

Maybe I should add - instead of shorting it
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Exactly. BLSH has been touting the doomsday theme forever. Keep stops tight, and ride the wave higher. Could be months, years, or never before he's right again. Broken clock syndrome.
 
I think this is what you call "an epic fail". But who really knew what was going to happen, most of us are still flying blind in regards to medium to long term direction. It's a trader's market still.
 
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