Get The Hell Out - Part IV (A Global, Nowhere To Hide, Equity Market Crash)
- Thread starter ByLoSellHi
- Start date
ByLoseSellhi is stock trad3er's evil twin. They are both provide detailed analysis and are excellent paper traders. 
Quote from Monkey Boy:
ByLoseSellhi is stock trad3er's evil twin. They are both provide detailed analysis and are excellent paper traders.
There's been one critical difference, knob gobbler (I call you that affectionately).
His calls have been all wrong, and mine habe been correct.
Search the GTHO threads, or my 'You Think Things Are Bad Now?' threads...look at the dates of the threads.
Book it.
stuck_trd3r is the ultimate fade.
Werd.
ByLo, at least you are currently, on the right side of the market. That's always a good idea. But i tend to think Dividend will be right. I too believe that the dismal first half of 2009 has already been baked in. i don't discount the probability that we could revisit the 740 low, but if we do i fully expect it to hold for now. That old low is just two very bad days in a row away from here.
Any time there is a lot of short interest, and there is now, we have the delicious possibility of a short squeeze that could be the impetus to bring us back across the trading channel to the 950-1050 area.
Finally, we note that there are still many companies whose balance sheets and current and prospective income support their dividends and those dividends are getting juicy and very attractive relative to current bond yields. Juicy dividends can put a floor under a stock and there are enough dividend paying stocks in the DOW and S&P to temper further down movement.
I only offer these remarks in an attempt to add balance. I haven't a clue what the market will actually do, but the probability at least favors chopping around for the next few months between the 740 low and the ledge of the cliff at 1200 we fell off of. The 800-980 trading range remains the most probable for the near term of the next four weeks. This is Las Vegas with better odds. I ask unanimous consent to be permitted to revise my remarks should we make a strong close below the Jan 20 low.
Any time there is a lot of short interest, and there is now, we have the delicious possibility of a short squeeze that could be the impetus to bring us back across the trading channel to the 950-1050 area.
Finally, we note that there are still many companies whose balance sheets and current and prospective income support their dividends and those dividends are getting juicy and very attractive relative to current bond yields. Juicy dividends can put a floor under a stock and there are enough dividend paying stocks in the DOW and S&P to temper further down movement.
I only offer these remarks in an attempt to add balance. I haven't a clue what the market will actually do, but the probability at least favors chopping around for the next few months between the 740 low and the ledge of the cliff at 1200 we fell off of. The 800-980 trading range remains the most probable for the near term of the next four weeks. This is Las Vegas with better odds. I ask unanimous consent to be permitted to revise my remarks should we make a strong close below the Jan 20 low.
Quote from ByLoSellHi:
Nowhere to hide.
I called it correctly in parts I, II, II, and I am highly confident I'll be vindicated in this call, yet again, calling for a major downturn in equity markets.
Central banks are now powerless to save the global economy, consumers and businesses will only increase their hoarding of cash and cutting of expenses and expenditures, and governments will not be able to stem the death grip of deflation nor prop up confidence by any method or measure.
We are staring into the abyss.
Call me whatever you want, say what you will, insult me - no matter. I called it right in parts I, II and III.
Let's see if I can make it four for four.
Another 17% to 25% downside correction in global equity markets is absolutely possible within 6 months, with particular currencies and commodities losing even more value than that.
As always, time/date stamp it.
Oh, the obligatory photo of a medevac:
Lol sorry to dissapoint you, but the US economy isn't going to crumble. The election is over, and so is the doom and gloom rhetoric.
Bank plan skepticism sinks Wall Street
Tuesday February 10, 2009, 2:31 pm EST
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks tumbled on Tuesday with the Dow and the S&P 500 down more than 4 percent, as bank shares slid on concerns that a plan to shore up the financial sector may not be enough to loosen up credit and contain the deepening recession.
Indexes slumped immediately following Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's announcement of a plan to mop up $500 billion in spoiled assets from the beleaguered banking system.
Financial stocks, which had spearheaded a rise in the market in recent sessions in anticipation of the plan, skidded as the lack of details in Treasury's announcement raised questions about whether the plan will be enough to rein in the financial crisis.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wall-St-tumbles-on-bank-plan-rb-14312204.html
Tuesday February 10, 2009, 2:31 pm EST
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks tumbled on Tuesday with the Dow and the S&P 500 down more than 4 percent, as bank shares slid on concerns that a plan to shore up the financial sector may not be enough to loosen up credit and contain the deepening recession.
Indexes slumped immediately following Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's announcement of a plan to mop up $500 billion in spoiled assets from the beleaguered banking system.
Financial stocks, which had spearheaded a rise in the market in recent sessions in anticipation of the plan, skidded as the lack of details in Treasury's announcement raised questions about whether the plan will be enough to rein in the financial crisis.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wall-St-tumbles-on-bank-plan-rb-14312204.html
Uh oh.
Technical damage. Stay safe, everyone.
I never wish ANYONE loses money.
Not ever stock_fcuking-Turd3r.
I don't roll that way.
Technical damage. Stay safe, everyone.
I never wish ANYONE loses money.
Not ever stock_fcuking-Turd3r.
I don't roll that way.