Get The Hell Out - Part IV (A Global, Nowhere To Hide, Equity Market Crash)

[ByLoSellHi]

Nowhere to hide.

I called it correctly in parts I, II, II, and I am highly confident I'll be vindicated in this call, yet again, calling for a major downturn in equity markets.

Central banks are now powerless to save the global economy, consumers and businesses will only increase their hoarding of cash and cutting of expenses and expenditures, and governments will not be able to stem the death grip of deflation nor prop up confidence by any method or measure.

We are staring into the abyss.

Call me whatever you want, say what you will, insult me - no matter. I called it right in parts I, II and III.

Let's see if I can make it four for four.

Another 17% to 25% downside correction in global equity markets is absolutely possible within 6 months, with particular currencies and commodities losing even more value than that.

As always, time/date stamp it.


Oh, the obligatory photo of a medevac:

 

[William Rennick]

I quite like this post, good job. But overall you are still an overposting moron.

Rennick out

 

[ByLoSellHi]

Quote from William Rennick:

I quite like this post, good job. But overall you are still an overposting moron.

Rennick out

I quite appreciate your compliment, even if you are a bastard, sonofabitch.

Shalom.

 

[dumpandbasher]

Within 6 months? You gotta make the call within a month of the crash. I think your other calls were more precise as to timeframe.

 

[ByLoSellHi]

Quote from dumpandbasher:

Within 6 months? You gotta make the call within a month of the crash. I think your other calls were more precise as to timeframe.

I wanted to give myself a little more breathing room, as I feel there will be a lot of whipsaw action, as people get trapped buying into headfake and violent dips.

But okay - I'll call it by the end of May.

 

[gastropod]

Quote from ByLoSellHi:



Call me whatever you want, say what you will, insult me - no matter.

Well only since you OK'd it... Just kidding

In my mind I still debate the hyperinflation vs. deflation arguments.

-gastropod

 

[dividend]

Market may or may not be going back down. The short side seems crowded to me. But I think that if you are right and it is headed back down then your timing is off. The market would go down in the second half of the year not the first half. The market already knows (knew) that the first quarter is going to suck. The expectation is for a recovery in the second half, meaning that the buying has begun. The market would tank when the consensus expectation is not met. This is my opinion.

 

[DreamerLikeYou]

OP

the real question is regardless of that can you make money

if you are such a hot shot, then SHORT RIGHT NOW

 

[Topsurfi]

Quote from ByLoSellHi:
with particular currencies and commodities losing even more value than that.

measured against what will these currencies fall ?

Its impossible that everything falls because you would then not be able to measure it. Its like in space where you can only measure a movement relative against something else.

So there must always be something going up. So what is it ?

I don't see any currency that is worth hiding, even the Euro sucks because of possible failure of Spain, Greece and the rest of the Europeans have to pay the bill. Swiss franc same problem.

In my opinion Cash (in any known currency) and Bonds will be the worst investment 2009 and thus I challenge your post and say that you will be wrong. Economy is going down the toilet but still you will be wrong because Cash and Bonds will fall against stocks.

People will start "hiding" in stocks soon.

 

[ByLoSellHi]

I doubt anyone will be hiding in stocks soon.

The great paradox facing down the world economy is that banks will go bankrupt even accepting a generous price for the bad assets they hold paid by the only buyers in the markets (governments using tax dollars), as the banks' rate of expenditures on those assets was so galactically idiotic, they simply can't stave off failure accepting anything other than prices from a galactically greater fool - and taxpayers have already voiced tremendous opposition at being the fool, so I doubt being played for a galactically greater fool is in the cards.

Per some sage advice someone gave me here via PM five months ago: "Ya' Gotta Trade The Whip, Dude!"

And if ye shall endeavor to trade thy hallowed whip, ye better be fleet of mind and spirit!