Get The Hell Out: Part II

Your right tradestrong, it's all the above as you've mention.
But remember who are the one's that lose.

We the People.

They are coming after all of our money!

Anyway they can get-it.

This is just another way.

trade well

perr

p.s.

Don't let me have to remind you all again. [boy's and girl's] time
to get-real-now.
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

It's partly in response to today, but mostly in response to what I see as a snowball of assorted (mainly negative) shit rolling our way.

If we were in foxholes together, I'd be the one telling everyone I had a very bad feeling tonight.

Usually, I'd brush off a bearish article (or a bullish one, for that matter; they're a dime a dozen) like this:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/80438-preparing-for-the-fall?source=headline1

...but for whatever reason, it really freaked me out to read it. I can't find myself disagreeing with his premise.

At any rate, I'm hedging, hedging, hedging, and buying some gld, too.

I'll be closing out many of my long positions that are too expensive to hedge against. It will be a mistake if we've formed a bottom, but I don't think we have, and I'd never forgive myself for not acting on my cumulative intuition this time if it all comes to pass.

This is not premonition. It's a feeling based on my observation that there is way too much complacency given some very serious shit hitting the fan in economic and geopolitical terms right now.

A 3% drop on the indices today is nothing compared to what I fear is around the corner.

I'm not averaging down, and I'm not buying these dips.

Good luck, whether you're long or short.
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lol
 
Quote from tradestrong:

The way I look at it is this:
The FED isn't just there to grease the wheels of the economy. They are very important in terms of psychology for the general uneducated public. If the public sees a "banking system" that doesn't bail out banks, they might fear that their money isn't safe in any bank. So, the move IMO wasn't so much about saving one bank, it was really to send a message to the public that the FED will do whatever it can to protect the system.

So, even though it may seem that they "don't care about the economy", tell that to a factory worker who is scared that their life savings could evaporate from some bank. Granted, this is apples to oranges, but again, the general uneducated public doesn't make the distinguishment. So protecting the banking system IS protecting the economy.
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US workers don't have any savings and those who have are severely punished by inflation and rates below inflation.

Fed doesn't care about economy or people. They care only about their friend from investments bans
 
Quote from osorico:

And lets not forget Fiscal 2009 State Budgets, effective JULY 1, 2008...

http://www.cbpp.org/1-15-08sfp.htm
http://www.cbpp.org/3-13-08sfp.htm

The State governments are responsible for preventing the recession, statistically...
Spend it while you can, hire 'em now mentaility comes to an end in 3 weeks.

And round 2 of the same in January 2009... No need to fear though, inaugurate a new chief.

Osorico
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Such an important point... thanks for sharing.

Well stated.
 
Quote from HolyGrail:

The risk is just not that great. Technically, I don't see anything glaring at me. We have maintained an uptrend for more than 5 years.
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Well since the point and figure chart says everything is ok then it MUST be so.

I've been trading since 1982 and I've sat through 1 major and 2 minor crashes.

No offense but I always welcome them because it washes out the slop. Including all the so called technicians and ALL of their chart worship.

I agree with this article completely, does that mean that we will crash again? Who knows but I can tell you that I would welcome it.

Sorry but the business has become too frothy and it's time to clean house.
 
Quote from HolyGrail:

There is nothing in that article that really concerns me. Anyone who is long is only risking march lows. That is not the end of the world.
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If you're long strong companies, you can ride it out. Rate cuts will do their job over time, and yes there's likely a real bottom ahead over fear which is way more powerful than greed. Ever notice how a strong stock can rally 5-10% in a day, but when the blood starts to flow it can lose that much in 5 minutes? My question is will there be recovery fast enough to give my Sept/Oct options time to shine :eek:
 
Quote from Joab:

Well since the point and figure chart says everything is ok then it MUST be so.

I've been trading since 1982 and I've sat through 1 major and 2 minor crashes.
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The chart has been right for 5 years. I'll take a 5 year trend over the yo-yo predictions on where the market is headed based on other forms of analysis.

and btw, I didn't say IT MUST BE RIGHT. I said " I " as in me, will not be concerned until that trendline breaks. I don't give a rats ass what anyone else does.
 
Hello. I think the stock market is going to make new relevant lows in the next weeks/months.

Technically the S&P500 is doing the SAME-EXACT pattern it did on November 2000 (see weekly chart). Even the value of the index is nearly the same! And macro picture is even worse than those "great" times.

I expect a test of 1320/1330 support monday or tuesday, then a big rally from that level to 1370 again or even 1390 (false breakout of 1370 resistance) and then continues the way down.

Of couse the market can do anything, and if FED/Bernanke says something important on Monday, (and/or oil go down sharply) maybe US markets can open at the same level or a bit lower than friday close, and start going up again. They can do it, but I doubt it.

Lets see what happens...
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:


This is not premonition. It's a feeling based on my observation that there is way too much complacency given some very serious shit hitting the fan in economic and geopolitical terms right now.

A 3% drop on the indices today is nothing compared to what I fear is around the corner.
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What makes you think this will be different from your earlier call? The low on the S&P after your call was about 35pts lower, while the high was more than 70 pts higher, twice the downside (over a two-month timeframe).

We are right about the same level as when your first call was made. Why do you think it will be different this time?
 
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