Get Rich in Commodities Superboom, thanx environmentalists

[nattybumppo]

Srly,... Linking tor as a viable source of info ?

1. Info should be judged on its merits whenever that is feasible. In this case, it should be very easy to find disconfirming data if the factual claims in question are not correct--such as no viable fusion devices that can utilize helium3, even if we could get it back from the moon in quantity at a commercially viable cost. Surely you do not intend to contest this reality???

2. I also included a link on the same question to "Do the Math," a site run by a very reputable, mainstream physicist at a respected university.

 

[athlonmank8]

I'm looking at the ERCOT numbers, and I understand what an ISO is and how it works as well as what capacity factors are and how they work. Which numbers, exactly, are you looking at to come to the conclusions you've reached (links to the actual data please)?

I run a business that does this for a living, what's your experience in electricity markets again? I'm honestly interested in what your thoughts are on ERCOT's capacity reserve margin and how intermittent resources factor into that calculation. You do grasp that a 500 MW nameplate wind farm isn't considered a 500 MW resource for the purposes of calculating reserve margin (or bidding into a capacity market in ISOs that use them)? I mean clearly you don't based on what you just wrote, but do you really grasp how ignorant you are here? You're essentially a random dude showing up at a brain surgeon conference and yelling at them all that they're a bunch of idiots because the cerebellum is the most important part 'cause you heard it on Tucker Carlson. That's really where your understanding of a pretty complex system is at. Seriously, stop embarrassing yourself.

You asked me a question and then never even gave me a chance to answer lol. Pure emotion.

 

[athlonmank8]

I asked for your sources and you just continue to fabricate numbers. It doesn't hurt anyone's feelings when you don't grasp the fact that you can't just make stuff up and expect to be taken seriously, it just makes you look foolish. So again, provide a link to your data or you've got nothing.

What you don't seem to grasp even with your made up numbers is that when a resource makes up something like 25% of historical generation then of course it can't be expected to singlehandedly provide 100% of generation even on a normal day let alone during a time of high demand. Of course the ERCOT grid which normally gets 55% of it's power from coal and gas (http://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/generation) would collapse if they went away; it would collapse on a normal day if they went away. In fact they did go away to a large extent and it did collapse to a large extent. What was your point on that again?

I posted some of the numbers here and I posted the PDF go back and read my post! I know that. Typical penetration is 40%

 

[athlonmank8]

I posted some of the numbers here and I posted the PDF go back and read my post! I know that. Typical penetration is 40%

What do you have to say about that? I know how to fuckin read and I understand this just as well as you do. This ISN"T brain surgery so don't make it sound like it is.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/attachments/screenshot_20210220-081215-png.252609/

Wind was GARBAGE worst day I saw was 3,500 @ peak and demand was 66,000.


40% penetration to 8% penetration. They were running at 90% of capacity (never see 100%, although you implied I thought that.... which I didn't....)

 

[athlonmank8]

I asked for your sources and you just continue to fabricate numbers. It doesn't hurt anyone's feelings when you don't grasp the fact that you can't just make stuff up and expect to be taken seriously, it just makes you look foolish. So again, provide a link to your data or you've got nothing.

What you don't seem to grasp even with your made up numbers is that when a resource makes up something like 25% of historical generation then of course it can't be expected to singlehandedly provide 100% of generation even on a normal day let alone during a time of high demand. Of course the ERCOT grid which normally gets 55% of it's power from coal and gas (http://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/generation) would collapse if they went away; it would collapse on a normal day if they went away. In fact they did go away to a large extent and it did collapse to a large extent. What was your point on that again?

I gave you the ERCOT numbers for wind. Now read them.

 

[athlonmank8]

http://mis.ercot.com/misapp/GetRepo...d Integration Reports &showHTMLView=&mimicKey

 

[athlonmank8]

file:///C:/Users/notamac0/Downloads/rpt.00013105.0000000000000000.20210216.080652556.Wind%20Integration%20Report%2002-15-21.pdf


Wind was a gamble. It worked good when it worked. But when it didn't work they blamed fossil fuels.......Idiots. Wind capability was 30,000MW it puked out about 3,500 at it's worst time (down from ~13,000 to 14,000). Demand soared and had they kept more reliable sources of energy this catastrophe wouldn't have happened.

 

[Overnight]

Guys, who cares? We saved the spotted owl and stopped global warming by sacrificing a few dozen humans. Quit yer bitchin'!

All it took was a deep-freeze for it to happen.

Now watch how many spotted owls you will see this spring, and how it will help the earth survive our tragic treatment of the atmosphere! Spotted-owls = JOBS JOBS JOBS!

 

[Sig]

I gave you the ERCOT numbers for wind. Now read them.

No, you didn't. You grabbed some random numbers you can't even provide a link to which you don't even begin to comprehend and dumped them out to "prove"...well we can't even tell what you're trying to prove from what you are spewing. Apparently "renewable energy bad because Fox opinion host said so".

Tell me this, what capacity does ERCOT use to calculate their capacity reserve margin for a nameplate GW of wind energy. I'll happily wait while you go learn what the capacity reserve margin is, then what a capacity factor is, then look at the data to determine what the average capacity factor used by ERCOT was for this period. Then we can talk about why a capacity reserve margin is inferior to a capacity market like other ISOs use, but of course you'll need to learn what capacity markets are as well.

Answer the very basic questions I've asked younow twice and you've been unable to answer and you can participate in an intelligent conversation on the matter. Until then every time you reply you simply emphasize both your own ignorance on this subject and your stunning lack of self awareness of that ignorance.

 

[Sig]

Guys, who cares? We saved the spotted owl and stopped global warming by sacrificing a few dozen humans. Quit yer bitchin'!

All it took was a deep-freeze for it to happen.

Now watch how many spotted owls you will see this spring, and how it will help the earth survive our tragic treatment of the atmosphere! Spotted-owls = JOBS JOBS JOBS!

Not trying to pick a fight but curious why you're so strongly anti-environment when everything else you say seems very moderate, reasoned, and we'll thought out?