Get Ready Guys: All Signs Point To Civil Unrest

Quote from ByLoSellHi:

If this is a naive or stupid question, my apologies in advance, but do you mean Art Cashin?

Thanks.

sorry. Yes. It was art cashin, UBS dir of floor ops.
 
Once the the Obamagasm Glow wears off and people realize they are still in the Shit and Obama is just another greedy pol, looking to maintain power at all costs, we will be in for rough times.

The level of trust among people is at an all time low.

1) There is no trust of the government. Obama's rating will tank, congress is already in single digits

2) People are realizing, that right now the cheaters, losers, swindlers, frauds, criminals are being rewarded and bailed out. the greater the crime and the more public the more likely you will be bailed out.

3) The inner cities in most metros are already at breaking points.


4) Local governments are broke, and local law enforcement is overburden and under paid.

I don't think it will be mad max, but it will be the 60's and 70's again, civil protests, urban areas that are no mans lands., gangs asserting control, splinter militant groups doing crazy stuff.
 
trader arb - yes, I think you're right in that most people (maybe not most people here, but in general) aren't aware that tax receipts have already fallen precipitously, and that it's basic math that tells us they'll fall much more this year and next.

So, whereas we had many more people paying taxes before, and much more tax revenues from the very fat end of the relatively unfair tax structure (i.e. the upper 20% and especially the upper 5% - nearly 44% of all American adults don't pay any income taxes), we now have a situation where many of those who had taxable income in past years do not, and in a way that disproportionately drives down government revenue (the people who paid the most beforeme have fewer gains and less income now).

At the same time as far fewer revenues are flowing in, the U.S. is borrowing more by selling bonds that will one day soon fail to attract buyers given their pathetic yields, and buy printing the trillions of fiat, vapor currency that it is, pouring that vapor into the banking sector in an attempt to avoid a domino-esque chain of failures and confidence of crisis regarding banks, setting the table for what many of the most credible economists claim will be a currency crisis - monetary policy is perverting all of our interests right now.


Has anyone here really believed that this downturn would occur at such a rapid clip, that you'd see 25 trillion of wealth wiped out in just 18 months, and can you honestly say you can point to anything that indicates there will be a recovery in employment, whereby people are able to obtain alternate employment making wages equal to or less than what they were making at their former positions?


What does America make now? Is the emperor naked now that we know that banking, brokerages (financial services), mortgages, real estate sales and leasing, construction (builders, trades, equipment leasing, sales of building materials, land planning, engineering), appraising and other such jobs propped our economy up for only so long?

flytiger - I like Art Cashin. He and Rick Santelli are probably the only two people I can think of right now on CNBC who actually have any credibility, and say rational things.

lrm21 - I agree completely that a lack of trust is a huge problem right now, and who could blame Americans for that lack of trust? It's a logical response to a set of 'screw you' policies being now forced down their throats. It will be interesting to see if Obama really will take away the carrot of bonuses (there is talk he may try and tie that into further access to TARP and other government funds), as Wall Street firmly backed Obama (lest he think we aren't aware of who his backers were and that which may present a conflict for him now).
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

It wouldn't matter whether Obama or Bush was in office; the only thing that was necessary was for the economic conditions to degrade precipitously, and for average Americans, who played by the rules, paid their taxes, paid their mortgages and credit card bills, to see that they were going to be punished and forced to bail out the most irresponsible, and in many cases, overcompensated people in our society.

Now that these responsible Americans see that they are at imminent risk of losing their stores, businesses, jobs and homes, due to a massively worsening economy, see that trillions of their tax dollars are being misappropriated and shipped to banks and financial institutions that helped ignite the fuse that led to the economic crisis, and now that they see that it does not pay to play by the rules nor go quietly into indentured servitude, there is going to be a mass movement at the grass roots level to basically ignore the structure and rules.

This is why the government is so eager to quickly pass the 'stimulus bill;' to try and stave off this reaction by hiring more people to the payrolls of government agencies, find the funding to avoid having to lay off presently employed government employees, and try and blunt the economic shock we're all about to experience (we have only felt the initial tremors so far).

2009 is the year people literally come to believe that it no longer pays to play by the rules, and become so incensed at the system and the unfair nature of what they see transpiring, that they actually take action.

The triggering event will be the steep decline in government revenues as the economy worsens, and the government both prints fiat currency and shift methods of collecting revenue (e.g. increases consumption taxes such as gasoline, sin and other consumption and use taxes) due to falling tax revenues based on income.

I truly believe it's possible (though I don't know with certainty) that this really is the reason 40,000 U.S. military personnel really were transferred to U.S. posts, and have now been trained for operations involving American Civilians. This really has taken place, although the government first tried plausible denial, and then shifted towards an explanation that borders on a 'homeland defense'/'1st responder' type scenario.

Europe is trending the same very way, also.

Why do you think there will be all this mass unrest, riots etc. when we saw hardly any of this during the Great Depression?

Europe is a different place, Europeans riot at the drop of a hat.
 
Quote from Specterx:

Why do you think there will be all this mass unrest, riots etc. when we saw hardly any of this during the Great Depression?

Because that's what the inner city folk did in the 60's- 90's, they have a pretty good track record of it... you might say that's how they got where they are today :)

Government income is falling, spending is rising, printing presses are running to keep the riots from happening, that's how it is shaping up, no?
 
Quote from Specterx:

Why do you think there will be all this mass unrest, riots etc. when we saw hardly any of this during the Great Depression?

Europe is a different place, Europeans riot at the drop of a hat.

I've seen people riot for less here, and back ion 67, before I was born, they burned an entire city down in the U.S.

Make no mistake; I am not saying it's probable, only that it's possible, and that I see certain things regarding what our government is doing (i.e. some of the things commented on in the articles I posted) that don't seem entirely incongruous with the notion that our government may be worried about the possibility of an economic-inspired backlash.
 


I truly believe it's possible (though I don't know with certainty) that this really is the reason 40,000 U.S. military personnel really were transferred to U.S. posts, and have now been trained for operations involving American Civilians. This really has taken place, although the government first tried plausible denial, and then shifted towards an explanation that borders on a 'homeland defense'/'1st responder' type scenario.

Europe is trending the same very way, also. [/B]


I usually agree with your POV but this one I think is pure FUD Homeland defense/1st responder idea is as old as 9/11 and Katrina. This is not new or being covered up. Moreso US troops need to eventually come back from Iraq or Afganistan and get some rest...

SWAT teams nowdays have the firepower of a military anyway so perhaps military policing is a moot point...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaoYdV5prGo
 
Quote from lrm21:

I don't think it will be mad max, but it will be the 60's and 70's again, civil protests, urban areas that are no mans lands., gangs asserting control, splinter militant groups doing crazy stuff.

The 70s was cool.

NYC was actually pretty damned scary looking. The S.F. bay area was looking rather funky too.
 
Quote from Specterx:

Why do you think there will be all this mass unrest, riots etc. when we saw hardly any of this during the Great Depression?

Europe is a different place, Europeans riot at the drop of a hat.

They riot during soccer games...:D
 
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