GES

[oldnemesis]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-guess-ges-150203727.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/guess-misses-4q-profit-forecasts-203558839.html

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/financials/fi-126.1.GES.NYS

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GES+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true}

Trade:
With GES at 17.48
Jan '17 22/25 bear call spread for a net credit of $30
Yield = 30/270 = 11.1 % in 280 days or 14.5% annualized
Prob = 83%
Expectation = .83(30) - .076(270) - .094(135) = 24.9 - 20.5 - 12.7 = -8.3

Price.......... Profit / Loss ..........ROM %
12.50................ 30.00.............. 11.10%
15.00................ 30.00.............. 11.10%
20.00................ 30.00.............. 11.10%
22.00................ 30.00.............. 11.10%
22.30.................. 0.00............... 0.00%
23.92............. (162.40)........... -54.13%
25.00............. (270.00)........... -88.90%
27.50............. (270.00)........... -88.90%
30.00............. (270.00)........... -88.90%


Filled at $30

I have AT&T and ADT expiring today.