Germany must be forced out of the Euro Monetary Union.

P

piezoe

As some of you know, this is something I have been suggesting as the best way to handle the defects in the E.U. Monetary Union. Others have suggested this well before now. Germany may need to be encouraged to leave by a friendly nudge from the PIGS. Any new monetary alliances among the PIGS, possibly including France, must include a "eurobond", or its equivalent. This won't end the PIGS woes and recessions. They will still need to pay their creditors, but on their terms rather than terms dictated by Germany.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-17/germany-not-greece-should-exit-the-euro
 
piezoe said:
As some of you know, this is something I have been suggesting as the best way to handle the defects in the E.U. Monetary Union. Others have suggested this well before now. Germany may need to be encouraged to leave by a friendly nudge from the PIGS. Any new monetary alliances among the PIGS, possibly including France, must include a "eurobond", or its equivalent. This won't end the PIGS woes and recessions. They will still need to pay their creditors, but on their terms rather than terms dictated by Germany.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-17/germany-not-greece-should-exit-the-euro
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"They will still need to pay their creditors, but on their terms rather than terms dictated by Germany."
yes, pay argentinian style, while the PIGS goes bankrupt and the middle class flees

piezoe with your leftist leaning , you would recommend that the finance ministers of the pigs study the history of argentina, the poster boy for stiffing creditors. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-07-17/-no-why-argentina-refuses-to-pay-its-debts.
 
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Then the union would fall as well. Germany is really the center of it all. Germany as an outsider would probably form an union with Scandinavian and some East European countries.
There's no real benefit for Spain and Italy to be in an union as they often compete on the same products, also, UK and France alone would have issues financing Spain, Portugal and Greece.
 
So let's say Greece bails... then Spain... Portugal... Italy... UK... in that order? Seems possible but pretty damn remote honestly.
 
Yeah you're right, I had somehow thought the thread was on general EU/EZ predictions. If DE leaves the EZ I'd think the entire thing is a failure at that point, don't you think?
 
d08 said:
Then the union would fall as well. Germany is really the center of it all. Germany as an outsider would probably form an union with Scandinavian and some East European countries.
There's no real benefit for Spain and Italy to be in an union as they often compete on the same products, also, UK and France alone would have issues financing Spain, Portugal and Greece.
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I disagree with your main points for reasons covered in the article I gave a link for, and points that I have covered previously in my own posts. My comment and original post are concerned specifically with adoption of a common currency. It is possible, of course, to be a member of the EU without adopting the Euro, Denmark and England for example.

None of this is particularly apropos her. The trouble with the monetary union, for those states that have adopted a common currency, is that they lack a necessary component to make a common currency work well-- the common bond. The Germans are still thinking in term of obsolescent economics and monetary policy -- policies that work well for them at the moment, but not for some of the other EU countries.. That's why they must leave the Union. Then the more forward looking countries that want an integrated monetary policy can adopt a common bond, and the central bank can use flexible monetary policy to smooth out economic bumps in the road.
 
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Visaria said:
germany could leave eurozone, but not the EU, I think he means
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The problem is a monetary one. The countries could all stay in the EU and have their own currencies, just as England and Denmark do. But to make a common currency work for all countries, there must be a common bond. Germany is the main stumbling block preventing the adoption of a common bond. That is why the best solution to this problem is for Germany to leave the Monetary union, i.e., the EMU. If they want to remain in the EU for other purposes, that could, and should be, accommodated.
 
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