It is simple:
Next step is a decision by Greece:
a) They decide to leave and they can potentially choose whether they want to default on all their debt and basically leave not only the Monetary Union but also the EU altogether. I leave it to future facts to display that this will maybe restore "Dignity", if that is what Greeks so care about, but it will bring decades of painful life style adjustments and a return to a pure farming state, tourism alone will definitely not save Greece. Or they can make an agreement with the EMU to leave the Euro only and run a parallel currency basically allowing Greece to devalue. It will be a solution in the short term but certainly not change much in the long run.
b) Greece can offer deeper reforms and austerity in exchange for debt forgiveness. Not all debt would be forgiven but even a cut by 20-30% would make a huge difference, especially if debt is forgiven that matures earlier than later. In exchange Greece has to take steps to overhaul its chronically lavish pension system. It has to start to clamp down on tax evasion and corruption. It has to stop over employment and fire people in jobs that are simply not needed. It can demand that the EU will work with them to establish a functioning service based industry and to also restore the manufacturing of goods, ships, farming. I am not sure this will ever succeed because I have zero faith in Greeks wanting to work hard and give up on their entitlement attitude. But I also believe in miracles.
But fact remains that solution b) will be the best solution for all parties involved. This is how it should go: Greeks can return to Athens and deliver a victory: Partial debt forgiveness. Other EU nations get what they wanted, as well: Austerity and true reforms. How to go about it? Let' s not give credit to Greece anymore, nobody trusts them right now, NOBODY, not the French, not the Italians and much less anyone else in Europe. No debt forgiveness upfront. Debt will be forgiven in tranches as function of success rates of implemented reforms, benchmarks such as debt as percentage of GDP or unemployment or budget surplus can be used to forgive debt in tranches. The monitoring will NOT be done by any Greek authorities because they have lost every credibility. So in the end Troika2 will re-enter Greece and go about its job to monitor and report on progress. This is what the Greeks have to agree on in return for partial debt forgiveness. This is something, imho, that sounds palatable and manageable to Greeks but also something that can be sold to German, Dutch, Belgium, Spanish tax payers.
We have to start looking at constructive solutions. We have to stop listening to Euro haters and those who stand outside and only look to benefit if one party entirely loses. We have to stop caring what some bystanders have to say, the Soros of the world, Americans, British. We have to start caring what is best for European citizens. And we should stop believing the cool aid that is offered by people like Tsingtao, who by self admission is a poor chap who failed in trading and in any of his other careers. He stated so himself. Look at this whole site: Tsingtao has in not ONE SINGLE post provided constructive ideas, he has displayed a blatant lack of knowledge of historic facts, yet injects himself into each and every discussion with his 15000 posts (3% of his posts are recommended by others, most other is garbage). Check out the technical forums on this site, he has not provided one single piece of advice to beginners nor advanced users at all. He has not added so far a single piece of advice what the best course of action would be for Europe. If he disagrees then its to him to provide a link to a single post that contains such in order to contradict my claim (I can't prove because I would need to link to every single of his posts which is technically impossible).
We have to stop listening to socialists and those who basically reject the idea that hard work deserves a fair pay off and that those who are lazy have no right to live off others' expenses. If we want to show that we as Europeans can make progress then yes, let's sit at a table and look at viable solutions, it will be definition be a compromise but it should be a compromise that works for all and means that EVERYONE will make a sacrifice and show solidarity, not just Northern European tax payers, because German citizens, Dutch citizens, Belgium citizens have so far not benefited from Greece whatsoever. It is for the Greeks to see and realize that and to start getting to work and put in an effort to restore their country: If they need support in terms of training, tools, advice, then they need to ask for it. But they cannot just sit around anymore and ask for more money. That time is over, history. That option is not on the table anymore.
I hate to risk diverting the thread away from the entertaining personal attacks, but I'm wondering what the people here think will be happening in Greece. I'm guessing that they will be forced out by bank problems and will return to the drachma. And what then?
It seems to be repeated over and over that Greece is a highly corrupt society that has difficulty collecting taxes. Of course I don't know if this is true; the media tell amusing, entertaining, and misleading stories all the time. But if it is true, it seems to me that Greece needs to begin acting like the early US. If you can't afford government, you have to get by with small government.
If a country cannot collect the taxes that are needed to pay for a socialist paradise, there really is no choice but to return to the traditional situation of everyone for them self. This can be done the hard way, that is, by letting the government hyperinflate itself into a real economic crisis whose temporary solution is barter and then the inevitable return to strong-man rule, or it can be done more elegantly by cutting back on government programs. Of course the socialists will choose to delay the inevitable by hyperinflating.
LOL! You're a real realist, alright. We all think so!