Quote from dcraig:
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You completely ignored what I wrote which is based on the real world, not wishful thinking. Do you understand what capacity factor is? It is a fact that cannot be wished away that during the last winter German PV output on many days was "next to nothing".</b>
Luckily they're not putting all their eggs in one basket.
<b>It is also a fact that Germany produced about 7.7% of it's electricity in 2010 from solar, wind, geothermal and minor gadgets. It is simply misleading to lump them together with hydro and biomass to "prove" how well renewables are going. Hydro and biomass are limited in expansion potential. If is solar and wind that are going to have to be scaled up to do the heavy lifting.
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I can't speak for Germany, but actually the expansion potential for hydro in the US is quite massive and is currently being developed. According to Energy Secretary Stephen Chu, total hydro output can be doubled in the US without building a single new damn -- just by upgrading turbines to more modern ones and exploiting run-of-river. Your statement is therefore likely false.
<b>Go and look up "Levelized Cost of Electricity" which gives a per kWh figure. It accounts for capital costs, fuel costs, operations and maintenance and in the case of nuclear decommissioning and waste management., it is a reasonable way to compare costs. PV remains an expensive option.</b>
It's difficult to compare costs, especially with nuclear, since the cost-estimates per kWh never include the $38 billion in loan guarantees that the nuclear industry received per annum in the US alone (half of which they default on), and rarely include true build costs (US DOE estimates a plant costs something like only $3 billion, which is wildly underestimated), long term disposal costs (which they stopped paying), nor owner's costs, nor inflation, nor fuel cost increases, and never full insurance because they never carry full insurance as they just dump this cost on to the public in case of an accident.
PV is expensive and poor choice in Northern Europe.
Actually the UK (rainy UK), which is similar in latitude to Germany, receives 60% as much sunlight as the equator receives. Solar panels generate electricity even on cloudy days, and some of the newest designs generate at night from infra-red.
Plus solar panels have gone down 21% in price in a single year (last year -- likely the same amount this year).
Meanwhile, spot prices on nuclear fuel tripled from $20 a pound in 2004 to, what, $60 in a disinterested market.
So whether or not you agree, the economics is simply inevitable.
but eventually we might figure out a decent way to shuttle it all around the globe.