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LT701:
Quote from empee:
hi .s.a.,
I enjoy reading your stuff by y do you h8 america so much? Everything you post is when USA makes mistakes, is weak, etc? Is it because USA has all the gold and thus makes the rules? The hypocrisy (all countries have it, not just USA), or what?
I got kinda bored of reading safehaven articles for the same reason after awhile you get tired of reading the sky is falling.
It very well may be, but it doesn't matter until it does, it appears.
i would tend to agree, particularly in a trading site
the bottom line is, whether he was right or not about the facts, his implications for the trend have been *dead wrong*
he's been posting sky is falling stuff in a *bull trend*
in trading, it doesnât matter why it's going up, when it is
or the reverse
it only matters whether you're on the right side
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PoudTheRock: "southamerica" is grasping for new material as the market hits new highs. He is going to have to wait a while to publish his "told you so" articles. He inwardly seethes as America continues to piss him off.
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January 8, 2007
SouthAmerica: My record over the years speaks for itself, and here is my response to the 3 of you:
When I made my prediction in September of 1999, I received a lot of emails from people on Wall Street saying that I did not know what I was talking about. They also told me that the market had been in the up-trend for a few years and they expected the up-trend to continueâ¦So much for wishful thinking.
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1) Prediction: Stock Market Crash of 2000
I am on record regarding an article I wrote on September 27, 1999 about the coming stock market crash. I could have written that article one or two years before I did actually happened. But I did not.
Today, if we could turn the clock back to September 27, 1999 â I know that you guys probably would be among the people who were skeptical about the content of that article. When I made my stock market prediction in September 27, 1999, that article generated a lot of letters to the editor and emails at that time, and not a single one was from people who did agree with me. I took a lot of abuse from the readers at that time, since some people call me all kind of names and accused me of being an idiot, incompetent, did not understand the stock market, others said that I did not know what I was talking about, I was full of doom and gloom, I was too pessimistic, too negative, and so onâ¦. Most of the correspondence came from people who were related to Wall Street one way or another â some investors and people who worked on Wall Street.
The rest is history.
(I did published again that article as part of another article that was published in September of 2002, and you can see what I said below what I said in September of 1999, a few months before the stock market crash of 2000)
2) Prediction: December 2001 - US dollar will decline vs. the euro and gold.
I started writing about the euro around December 1998. When I published a book about Brazilian history I had a chapter in the book why Brazil should adopt the euro - the new European currency. The book was copyrighted on December 1998, but before the book went to publishing I decided that the chapter regarding the euro was out of place in that book. After the final revisions the book went for printing without the chapter about the euro, and I took out of the book all references regarding my suggestion that Brazil should adopt the euro. After the book was published some asked me in which page he could find the information about the euro. I told him that the information had been deleted from the book, and I asked him why are you asking me that question? He answered me that in the back cover of the book mentioned the plan for Brazil adopting the euro. When I made the final revision of the book before the book was printed I missed that one reference to my plan that Brazil adopt the euro as its new currency.
I had been writing articles about Brazil and the euro since July 1999. But I made an actual and concrete prediction about the decline of the US dollar versus the euro and the price of gold in December 12, 2001 when I sent a letter to the president of the European Central Bank about Brazil adopting the euro. That letter has been published in a number of newspapers and magazines since March of 2002.
I have been writing a number of articles about the decline of the US dollar since December of 2001. When I wrote a letter to the president of the European Central Bank in early December 2001 I told him in that letter why the US dollar was going to decline against the euro, and how gold price would increase in terms of US dollar. When I wrote the Letter to the European Central Bank the US dollar was trading at US$ 0.82 to Euro 1.00, and gold was trading at US$ 295.00
I have a track record and they were published at the time when I made the predictions. I made the predictions before the events happened, and I got a lot of email from people giving me a hard time. When I published the letter to the European Central Bank I also received a lot of letters and emails saying that I was out of my mind regarding Brazil adopting the euro, and regarding the decline of the US dollar.
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In September 2002, various newspapers and magazine published one of mine articles â âCountdown to Armageddonâ (The editor of the magazine changed the original title of the article to Countdown to Armageddon): The article was 14-pages long, but I will quote the following from that article:
The Crash of 2000.
I am on record. On September 27, 1999, I wrote the following information:
"The Dow Jones Index increased from 72 in 1920 to 360 in October 1929 when the stock market crashed. Then four years later the Dow Jones had declined to 60; a decline of 80 percent from its high point in October 1929.
The Japanese market index increased from 4,350 in December 1975 to 38,916 in December 1989 when the Japanese bubble burst. Then by 1998 the Nikkei sunk as low as 13,000. From 1990 to 1998 the Japanese stock market declined by more than 70 percent.
The Dow Jones index increased from 780 in 1982 to the current 11,000 level in September 1999. The Dow Jones has increased by 14 times in 17 years. Not Bad!!!
But when we compare this increase with the 12 percent average increase per year for the Dow Jones over the long term, then we know that we are close to the exploding point of the bubble.
During the summer of 1929, many fools thought the increase of the Dow would go up forever. We will have a reality check in the near future. If you want further evidence for the coming crash, just check the historical average market P/E ratios with the average market P/E ratios of the Japanese stock market before the crash in December 1989, and the current American market average P/E ratio.
Market crashes give smart people the opportunity to find many bargains. It is just a matter of having cash on hand to pick up the bargains."
I received various emails at that time, calling me a doom n' gloom monger and saying that I was sadly deluded. I wonder how much money these people - who did not believe my stock market predictions - lost in the market since September 27, 1999. The Dow Jones started heading South in January 2000 and the NASDAQ started its dive in March 2000. Many trillions of dollars have gone up in smoke in the American stock market since January 2000.
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