Georgia's reopening is a high-stakes public health bet -- and will likely please Trump

Arnie said:
This is current COVID-19 hospitalizations in GA. Lower highs= trending down.

View attachment 228837

Hard to manipulate those #'s
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Source: AJC - https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/

New cases are flat and not trending down. Despite all the Governor's claims that new cases were trending down.
 
gwb-trading said:
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Source: AJC - https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/

New cases are flat and not trending down. Despite all the Governor's claims that new cases were trending down.
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This is the issue with statistics and visualization of data.

The 7 day average trending line is in a downward slope even if it is slight. If we did a regression analysis starting after the cases spiked to the highest the line would be drawn at a downward slope. However a visual glance at the 7 day average line seems to appear sideways.

What if we used a 5 day average or 3 day average or 10 day average...then the line and the visualization would look different and can be changed to fit the narrative.

However just looking at the nature of the spikes after the shelter in place and taking a regressed average line the trend is down even if slight.
 
gwb-trading said:
2l2s2fx.jpg


Source: AJC - https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/

New cases are flat and not trending down. Despite all the Governor's claims that new cases were trending down.
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But what about all those deaths you told us were coming. I thought you said the Governor was going to pay with Georgian lives?

Oh, that's right, they didn't trust the governor so they saved themselves by ignoring his reopening. Or something. And everywhere else, like Florida and Texas, they trust their governor. Or something.
 
given the fact many areas are ramping up testing, new cases is a suspect stat for now.

We should be seeing a percentage of new cases per test statistic to put the "new cases" in context.
 
gwb-trading said:
You realize that the case count is not finalized for 3 days normally. And in Georgia sometimes over a week delayed.
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Right. Arnie, you need to wait 3 more days and then the Apocalypse becomes apparent. Or if it doesn't, it's because no one trusts Kemp.
 
gwb-trading said:
Looks like Russia is just like the state of Georgia.

‘People will think bad things’: Russian governor appears to tell staff to change 'faked' coronavirus figures in leaked audio
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...rate-covid-19-moscow-audio-leak-a9531461.html

A leaked audio file purporting to show a regional governor instructing staff to alter data has cast doubt on the reliability of Russia’s Covid-19 statistics.

The recording, released on anonymous social media channels on Monday morning, is muffled and somewhat difficult to decipher. But the request to “change figures” — by a man whose voice appears to be that of Lipetsk governor Igor Artamonov — is clear enough. It is unclear from the recording what data this refers to, but their publication, the voice says, would make “people ... think bad things about [the] region."

The two-minute conversation contains such phrases as: “We need to correct this, to convince Moscow that we don’t have 72 [unclear]”, “don’t put the region’s neck on the line”, “we are at a critical stage, someone’s head needs to to be chopped off”, and “don’t tell me you are soft. Is it really so hard to change the data?”

At one point, the unidentified interlocutor pushes back and says changing the data would not be straightforward. “It’s not a matter of one click and we are done,” he says. “It’s complicated.”

“Then train yourself to do it!” says the first voice. “We’re already trained,” comes the reply.

n a comment to Russian media, Mr Artamonov confirmed the authenticity of the recording but insisted it had been unfairly interpreted. The conversation was not, he said, an attempt to underreport figures. On the contrary, it was an attempt to correct double reporting on testing figures.

“We have three services,” Mr Artamonov told the Znak publication. “Some give data to one place, and others to another [...] You get a situation where the figures are not entirely factual if you don’t keep a handle on them.”

According to the latest official data, Lipetsk region has recorded just five fatalities from 1696 diagnosed cases of Covid-19. This corresponds to a case fatality rate of 0.29 per cent. In other words, like the rest of Russia, well below the 6.42 per cent current rolling world average.

Whatever the truth behind the leaks, doubts about Russia’s Covid-19 data have persisted for several weeks. At a minimum, problems in diagnostics have produced a de facto underreporting. Anecdotally, local tests are no more than 10 per cent accurate, and Russia doesn’t report suspected coronavirus deaths. If you aren’t diagnosed with Covid-19 you can’t die from it.

But there is also evidence of misreporting of figures, with coronavirus deaths in some cases deliberately assigned to other illnesses.

n Dagestan, for example, hospitals have been overwhelmed since the end of April, in scenes akin to the crisis in Italy’s Lombardy region. Pharmacies across Dagestan ran out of basic medicine like antibiotics, and yet despite the medical collapse, official figures were until last Sunday reporting just 29 deaths.

(More at above url)
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I like how Russia suddenly became like 2nd place in number of administered tests all of the sudden
 
7 day death rolling average... is down to 5 a day from Covid.
I wonder how many suicides and serious medical issues opening up has saved.




https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

Tsing Tao said:
But what about all those deaths you told us were coming. I thought you said the Governor was going to pay with Georgian lives?

Oh, that's right, they didn't trust the governor so they saved themselves by ignoring his reopening. Or something. And everywhere else, like Florida and Texas, they trust their governor. Or something.
More...
 
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