I already taught you.. .by definition it does not apply to all humanity.
It applies to homogenous susceptible groups.
The people in San Diego are not necessarily like the people in wuhan.
And we don't even know that everyone is equally suspceptible. it is possible who had other similar viruses in the past... don't catch Covid. you constant confuse theory for reality and that is why you are constantly wrong as new data comes in.
because your detailed studies have used horrible data from with populations which are nothing alike.
And initially this virus was spread in clusters and preyed upon the weak.
Your model is based on 100 year old thinking.
The proper way to view this is that 80 percent of the infections come from very few individuals and the rest of us on average don't spread it at all. this virus is not following anything close to an exponential growth model impled by an R0 of two or more. Graphs in places which were not shutdown (in the first world) look the same as places were where.
South Dakota and Sweden death rates are way down and look like everwhere else.
your model fails in the real world.
this type of model is much more likely to explain things...
https://www.zdnet.com/article/googl...uper-spreaders-are-a-big-part-of-the-problem/
Reich and colleagues move beyond the typical infectious disease models that are commonly used for COVID-19. Those models are based on the so-called "susceptible, infectious, recovered" model of disease spread. The SIR model is a "mechanistic" model, based on a very general understanding of the mechanism by which all infectious diseases spread. It was
first introduced in 1927 by scientists William Ogilvy Kermack and Anderson Gray McKendrick.
The problem, according to Reich & Co., is that SIR is focused heavily on one number above all others, the "R-naught," the theoretical transmission rate, how many people, on average, each infected person can infect. It's been the dominant focus of models of COVID-19 for months now
Instead, Reich and team emphasize not the average, but the extraordinary cases in society, the people who have many more contacts than most people, and can therefore infect an unusually large amount of people. Super-spreaders have been studied for many years with respect to numerous epidemics. The 2014-2015 outbreak of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus, or "MERS," was traced to one South Korean individual who spread the disease to numerous individuals, two of whom spread the disease to further large groups. Similar patterns of "index" patients were observed with Ebola and with the SARS outbreak in 2002 to 2003.
