Georgia's reopening is a high-stakes public health bet -- and will likely please Trump

[jem]

thank you for reminding me.

To anyone who can think... they would have to know by now the models and the data were bullshit.
I really can not believe people are so dumb as to think the experts were telling us the truth.
If Covid really had an R0 of 2 to 4 as GWB claims... and half the people don't even know they have it and people can be infectious for up to 14 days....

Stockholm would be exploding with deaths by now instead of their death rate trending down.

Really Sweden is the counter to all their bullshit.. which why everyday there are multiple doomer articles about Sweden.

Fauci yesterday realized it and yesterday gave up the bullshit and said we have to balance the other medical and financial harm.

Something we have been saying for months.
yet there is no vaccine
the virus has not extinguished
the hospitables beds are still empty outside of a few clusters.
Nothing changed... but it should be obvious to all the models failed.

jem - This is way over gwb - tradings head. The skinny - the data has and still is being collected incorrectly. Trash in = Trash out.

 

[Cuddles]

thank you for reminding me.

To anyone who can think... they would have to know by now the models and the data were bullshit.
I really can not believe people are so dumb as to think the experts were telling us the truth.
If Covid really had an R0 of 2 to 4 as GWB claims... and half the people don't even know they have it and people can be infectious for up to 14 days....

Stockholm would be exploding with deaths by now instead of their death rate trending down.

you're lost in lala land

 

[Ayn Rand]

Georgia is marching forward with pride. Where states like Michigan seem to be mired in the mud.

God Bless Governor Brain Kemp. In times of distress real men rise to the occasion.

Others hunker down in the basement. "Is it OK to come out yet Mom?" "Not yet Joe."

 

[wildchild]

Can you imagine if these cowards were the people we sent to Normandy?

 

[gwb-trading]

thank you for reminding me.

To anyone who can think... they would have to know by now the models and the data were bullshit.
I really can not believe people are so dumb as to think the experts were telling us the truth.
If Covid really had an R0 of 2 to 4 as GWB claims... and half the people don't even know they have it and people can be infectious for up to 14 days....

Stockholm would be exploding with deaths by now instead of their death rate trending down.

Really Sweden is the counter to all their bullshit.. which why everyday there are multiple doomer articles about Sweden.

Fauci yesterday realized it and yesterday gave up the bullshit and said we have to balance the other medical and financial harm.

Something we have been saying for months.
yet there is no vaccine
the virus has not extinguished
the hospitables beds are still empty outside of a few clusters.
Nothing changed... but it should be obvious to all the models failed.

Use Google and go perform a search. There are plenty of scientific articles showing the Rnaught of COVID-19 is above 2. Keep in mind the Rnaught is the unmitigated infection rate.

"The R0 of the coronavirus so far seems to hover around 2 to 2.5, according to the World Health Organization. A study of the poorly contained outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship revealed an R0 consistent with those estimates: 2.2."

 

[gwb-trading]

you are using the SIR method for model the spread of a virus. Also about 100 years old.

As of now...

This Covid virus does not seem to be spreading in a way... that R0 is useful for policy making. What we need to concerned with is Covid spreading clusters via via super spreaders. The low risk group may have an R0 of close to zero. In essence they may already have herd immunity for each other.

You have been wrong about almost everything.

You don't need 50 to 70 percent of the low risk group to have antibodies... you just need to be ready to test and trace for the super spreader.

its the high risk group who probably are the vast majority of superspreaders...
This was obvious to anyone with a brain... not stuck in the narrative.

ironically... it may turn out the high risk group should be isolated from the low risk group to prevent the low risk group from getting new cases one at a time. (just the opposite of you fears.)

It seems your brain doomed you into not looking at the data and reality but listening to the "experts" who have kept you in the dark and fed you a bunch of shit with bad models.

Actually most COVID-19 modelling on population spread is using the SEIR model or other enhanced models--- not the older SIR model.

Here is some information - "The current study uses the SEIR model. This is a compartment model, common in epidemiological studies. It shows how the disease progresses through interactions between 4 compartments, namely, susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered. It is based on three parameters, the rates at which susceptible people become exposed (β), the exposed become infectious (α), and the infectious become recovered (γ). The last two are inversely associated with the latent period and the infectious period, respectively."
https://www.news-medical.net/news/2...how-it-relates-to-public-health-measures.aspx


Infectious Disease Modelling: Beyond the Basic SIR Model
https://towardsdatascience.com/infectious-disease-modelling-beyond-the-basic-sir-model-216369c584c4

 

[jem]

how many times do I have to explain to you.
R0 is theoretical based on similarly susceptible populations.

you are talking about a cruise ship probably old people and probably a dense portion of super spreaders breathing into recycled air...

That is not a useful study.

--
The data shows these recent studies that 80 percent of the virus spread by a small number of super spreaders.
R0 looks at the spread created by the average person.
If the data scientists are correct... most infect people do no spread the virus at all.

Let me repeat the that... the data might be telling us that
Most infected people do not shed the virus and infect others. .
They are zeros in your model.
Your model is not a useful way to make public policy.

l

Use Google and go perform a search. There are plenty of scientific articles showing the Rnaught of COVID-19 is above 2. Keep in mind the Rnaught is the unmitigated infection rate.

"The R0 of the coronavirus so far seems to hover around 2 to 2.5, according to the World Health Organization. A study of the poorly contained outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship revealed an R0 consistent with those estimates: 2.2."

 

[jem]

Hey doomer...
in an article you posted the Professor said (see quote below)...

If you models are correct why is the virus disappearing? Why is this a race against time to develop a vaccine? They are running out of newly infected people for the study?

Are you so dense that you do not take in this information and challenge your own ideas.

an R0 of 2 to 4 where there was little testing and half the people are not aware they are infectious would mean everyone in Stockholm should have Covid by now.
they should be overwhelmed.

your model, your arguments, your thoughts do not stand up to the real world.

It has to be superspreaders and clusters or herd immunity or something else.
This is not a virus with an R0 of anything close to 4 or even 2.

you have to admit that to yourself.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...sity-vaccine-trials-run-into-hurdle-telegraph


“It’s a race against the virus disappearing, and against time,” Professor Adrian Hill, director of the university’s Jenner Institute, told the newspaper. “We said earlier in the year that there was an 80% chance of developing an effective vaccine by September. But at the moment, there’s a 50% chance that we get no result at all.”

 

[smallfil]

thank you for reminding me.

To anyone who can think... they would have to know by now the models and the data were bullshit.
I really can not believe people are so dumb as to think the experts were telling us the truth.
If Covid really had an R0 of 2 to 4 as GWB claims... and half the people don't even know they have it and people can be infectious for up to 14 days....

Stockholm would be exploding with deaths by now instead of their death rate trending down.

Really Sweden is the counter to all their bullshit.. which why everyday there are multiple doomer articles about Sweden.

Fauci yesterday realized it and yesterday gave up the bullshit and said we have to balance the other medical and financial harm.

Something we have been saying for months.
yet there is no vaccine
the virus has not extinguished
the hospitables beds are still empty outside of a few clusters.
Nothing changed... but it should be obvious to all the models failed.

As more people get infected and get cured whether they get tested or not, they develop immunity and will not get the Corona Virus or transmit it to others. Dead Corona Virus cells even if they test positive will not harm anyone. It cannot be transmitted anymore. Common sense dictates, that the longer this Corona Virus has exposed so many to it, the more likely, much more people have already developed immunity to it than those who have not been exposed to it. So, the chances of infecting more people goes down not up. With many states now, opening up, Corona Virus should be exploding everywhere if any of the fear mongering liars were in fact correct. No, they are not! Their lies more a function of destroying the US economy and hurting President Donald Trump's re-election chances. That is the extreme liberal Democrat plan.

 

[gwb-trading]

how many times do I have to explain to you.
R0 is theoretical based on similarly susceptible populations.

you are talking about a cruise ship probably old people and probably a dense portion of super spreaders breathing into recycled air...

That is not a useful study.

--
The data shows these recent studies that 80 percent of the virus spread by a small number of super spreaders.
R0 looks at the spread created by the average person.
If the data scientists are correct... most infect people do no spread the virus at all.

Let me repeat the that... the data might be telling us that
Most infected people do not shed the virus and infect others. .
They are zeros in your model.
Your model is not a useful way to make public policy.

l

There are several million references in Google of scientific papers and articles placing the Rnaught of COVID-19 above 2. Go do a search and read them.

Let' there also be an understanding that Rnaught is about the infection spread. The spread is the same for old people as young people - except the old are likely to have worse medical outcomes after being infected.

A cruise ship with no mitigation in place in a closed environment (mirroring the definition of Rnaught) is one of the best environments for arriving at a Rnaught figure.