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Geoff's FX Journal
- Thread starter esuperbo
- Start date
January 19, 2006
Account Balance: $97,376
Unrealized P&L: $788
Net Asset Value: $98,164
Leverage: 1.29
USD/CHF: Long 2 units.
USD/JPY: Long 1 unit.
The current system needs adjustments. The system's entries are primarily short term, however exits are limited to the long term. This is a contradiction which tends to result in the above, namely profits evaporating into thin air and then some.
My new approach will be profit taking in two steps. One, a short term (6-12 hours) scalp in the direction of the opening range thrust for 1/3 of the position. Two, a long term trailing stop (~2 weeks) for the remainder of the position.
Risk control is also being tuned up. I was increasing size without the position moving sufficiently to be proved correct. My entry conditions were satisfied, however, I was simply adding risk (of course amplifying potential reward, but...) without considering if this would result in an improvement to the overall risk/reward profile or simply be an increase in leverage.
Markets are being diversified. Previously I was too concentrated in the high-interest carry pairs. While I will still limit myself to positive carry pairs, lack of correlation will be my primary metric to measure the suitability of a market.
My system is losing, and it is the system's fault. Fairly strict risk control has kept me in the game without an extremely demoralizing loss.
Account Balance: $97,376
Unrealized P&L: $788
Net Asset Value: $98,164
Leverage: 1.29
USD/CHF: Long 2 units.
USD/JPY: Long 1 unit.
The current system needs adjustments. The system's entries are primarily short term, however exits are limited to the long term. This is a contradiction which tends to result in the above, namely profits evaporating into thin air and then some.
My new approach will be profit taking in two steps. One, a short term (6-12 hours) scalp in the direction of the opening range thrust for 1/3 of the position. Two, a long term trailing stop (~2 weeks) for the remainder of the position.
Risk control is also being tuned up. I was increasing size without the position moving sufficiently to be proved correct. My entry conditions were satisfied, however, I was simply adding risk (of course amplifying potential reward, but...) without considering if this would result in an improvement to the overall risk/reward profile or simply be an increase in leverage.
Markets are being diversified. Previously I was too concentrated in the high-interest carry pairs. While I will still limit myself to positive carry pairs, lack of correlation will be my primary metric to measure the suitability of a market.
My system is losing, and it is the system's fault. Fairly strict risk control has kept me in the game without an extremely demoralizing loss.
January 23, 2006
Account Balance: $97,528
Unrealized P&L: $-120
Net Asset Value: $97,408
Leverage: 0.90
CHF/JPY: Long 1 unit.
EUR/JPY: Long 1 unit.
GBP/USD: Long 1 unit.
Absolutely boneheaded mistake to start off the new week. CHF/JPY and EUR/JPY are correlated to a ridiculous degree. Stupid. Next week a slight revamp of markets to remove one of the two.
Account Balance: $97,528
Unrealized P&L: $-120
Net Asset Value: $97,408
Leverage: 0.90
CHF/JPY: Long 1 unit.
EUR/JPY: Long 1 unit.
GBP/USD: Long 1 unit.
Absolutely boneheaded mistake to start off the new week. CHF/JPY and EUR/JPY are correlated to a ridiculous degree. Stupid. Next week a slight revamp of markets to remove one of the two.
January 24, 2006
Account Balance: $97,538
Unrealized P&L: $-100
Net Asset Value: $97,438
Leverage: 1.36
CHF/JPY: Long 1 unit.
EUR/JPY: Long 1 unit.
GBP/USD: Long 1 unit.
USD/CAD: Long 1 unit.
Looks like a possible bull trap in USD/CAD... will keep an eye on that one. CHF/JPY and EUR/JPY look like they may be headed for a breakout.
Account Balance: $97,538
Unrealized P&L: $-100
Net Asset Value: $97,438
Leverage: 1.36
CHF/JPY: Long 1 unit.
EUR/JPY: Long 1 unit.
GBP/USD: Long 1 unit.
USD/CAD: Long 1 unit.
Looks like a possible bull trap in USD/CAD... will keep an eye on that one. CHF/JPY and EUR/JPY look like they may be headed for a breakout.
January 25, 2006
Account Balance: $97,310
Unrealized P&L: $116
Net Asset Value: $97,426
Leverage: 0.90
AUD/USD: Long 1 unit.
CHF/JPY: Long 1 unit.
EUR/JPY: Long 1 unit.
GBP/USD: Long 1 unit.
Bull trap confirmed on USD/CAD (ie stopped out). I like the new exit/take profit rules, still some slight tweaking required, but overall performing quite well.
Account Balance: $97,310
Unrealized P&L: $116
Net Asset Value: $97,426
Leverage: 0.90
AUD/USD: Long 1 unit.
CHF/JPY: Long 1 unit.
EUR/JPY: Long 1 unit.
GBP/USD: Long 1 unit.
Bull trap confirmed on USD/CAD (ie stopped out). I like the new exit/take profit rules, still some slight tweaking required, but overall performing quite well.
January 26, 2006
Account Balance: $97,320
Unrealized P&L: $4
Net Asset Value: $97,324
Leverage: 0.91
AUD/USD: Long 1 unit.
CHF/JPY: Long 1 unit.
EUR/JPY: Long 1 unit.
GBP/USD: Long 1 unit.
I need to tighten up the initial scalp after the ORB thrust. All the long term winners are hitting it, losers aren't. No point to that!
Account Balance: $97,320
Unrealized P&L: $4
Net Asset Value: $97,324
Leverage: 0.91
AUD/USD: Long 1 unit.
CHF/JPY: Long 1 unit.
EUR/JPY: Long 1 unit.
GBP/USD: Long 1 unit.
I need to tighten up the initial scalp after the ORB thrust. All the long term winners are hitting it, losers aren't. No point to that!