General Election 2020

Biden leading in Ohio and Arizona.Also leading in Michigan,Wisconsin and PA.Also leading nationally.

March polling has predicted the popular vote winner the last 4 elections and EC 3 of the last 4 elections.
 
In the 2016 Presidential election:

  • Donald Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1%.
  • He won the Electoral College by only 77 votes.
  • 4 swing states (NH, MI, PA, WI) had margins under 1% and totaled 79 electoral votes.
  • There were 2 states (FL, MN) with margins from 1-2% with 39 electoral votes.
  • Another two states (ME, NV) were within the 2-3% margin with another 8 electoral votes.
A 3% swing covers 126 electoral votes, and even 1% could swing the election in the electoral college. Given the impact a single percent is likely to have on the electoral college appointments for several states, and given that the current case fatality rate for Covid-19 is 1.51% in the USA, I think it's is a significant factor in the vote.
 
Rachel Bitecofer‘s latest forecast shows Democrats winning the Electoral College, 289 to 181 with 69 electoral votes still up for grabs.

“If Trump had political capital to spend heading into this crisis, that would be one thing. But after the Russia investigation was followed in short order by the Ukraine scandal, Trump’s political capital tank is already on empty, with few Americans outside of Republicans capable of trusting him. Trump will be heading into the fall with the dubious distinction of being the most embattled, controversial, and scandal-plagued president to seek reelection in the history of the republic — and that was before this virus emerged to create a massive public health disaster and destroy his strongest claim for reelection: the economy.”

As a comparison, the consensus electoral map shows a closer race with five states and 86 electoral votes up for grabs.
 
A new Fox News poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by a crushing 25 point margin in counties that were close in 2016.

The poll shows Biden with a commanding 49-40 lead over Trump nationally and an eight-point lead in battleground states, but things are considerably more dire for Trump in counties where Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton were within 10 points of each other in 2016.
 
A former White House official told the Los Angeles Times that President Trump’s reelection campaign advisors “are terrified that the coronavirus outbreak, which so far has hit largely Democratic coastal cities hardest, will soon scythe across the rural areas that remain deeply loyal to Trump.”

“The advisors have warned Trump that the political consequences at the ballot box in November will be even worse if he is seen as too lax.”

Said the former official: “Pay attention. You’re going to lose the election.”

Tim Miller: “How broken and depraved do you have to be to go on background with a reporter and say campaign aides are worried about red state deaths. Whoever said this needs to step away from politics and seek help.“
 
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