GBP/JPY Trading 2008

Most of the time I think everyone puts some reasoning behind their positions they take. I usually state that I'm trading the range, etc.

Regardless of stating reasons or not, if I'm long and I see everyone saying simply "I'm short", it's going to make me at least look at my own reasoning with fair bit more scrutiny. Being able to have others (in essence) tell you you're wrong and stick to your guns is an extremely valuable talent. Many have gone broke trying to learn it.

All I'm saying is that even if someone does not give any reason for the direction of their trade it will most likely make another person look more closely at their own logic.
 
Quote from ForexPro:

As, as a trader it can be easy to become trigger-happy. So posting my trades, and reasoning on ET actually helps in qualifying a trade which i make.
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A very good point as I find it helps my trigger happiness also.

By the way, I was filled on my 214.00 longs on my way to work. I'm simply playing the lower boundary of this range and will flip my position on a break of 213.40
 
To an extent you are right, you do look what others are doing for a consensus. You even use this as an indicator. But in the end you trust your own ability and think i'm right they are wrong.

My reasoning for my recent trade is this:

the recent at 213.5 wasnt broken on sunday when asian session resumed following a bearish friday.
Nor was it broken during yesterdays US equity action.
Nor today, so far, despite the £ hitting fresh lows.
It seems a slow grind down if we are going lower.

Either way i can develop a stronger argument for a long than i can for a short so far, thats why i went long.
 
Frank, let me know how it reads.

FP, I agree. JPY has been weak in light of the equity turmoil. GBP seems to have completed a base. I'm looking to short EURGBP.
 
213.5 remain as support but more importantly ...


Looking at a 4HR chart 213.80 has acted as an even more significant price point. Price has consolidated between 213.80 and has been pushing up against the top of a trendline channel that extends back all the way to 228.30 forming a triangle pattern that favors the short side. That trendline will break at around 216. The upper trendline is exerting more and more downward pressure. Momentum is currently greater in the downward direction.

On the daily chart, price is testing the bottom of a trendline channel that extends back to 240. Both previous failed tests of the bottom trendline were at - you guessed it - 213.50. Another test of the daily lower trendline will be aprox 210 if price breaks under 213.50 - 213.80. The test of the lower daily trendline confirms the price action on the 4HR chart. Daily bars showing lower lows and lower highs with a *close* most likely lower than yesterdays *low*.

Rather text book action but anything goes with GY.

Seems we're at 213.80 once again as I type.

Still short.
 
I'll be looking to add to my already long position at 213.91

With limited downside risk (since I know where to bag it and flip), I just don't see why not. We've held key support the entire day with equities flying around like crazy. The will most likely settle down some to finish off the week.

The 4hr chart could be just as bullish as bearish and since we are at the bottom of the range, buying is logical. The overall trend is down, yes, but I believe a run up to 220 is not out of the picture before another large drop. Conditions seem oversold and it appears that way on the 4hr on up.
 
Quote from Cambist:

I'll be looking to add to my already long position at 213.91

With limited downside risk (since I know where to bag it and flip), I just don't see why not. We've held key support the entire day with equities flying around like crazy. The will most likely settle down some to finish off the week.

The 4hr chart could be just as bullish as bearish and since we are at the bottom of the range, buying is logical. The overall trend is down, yes, but I believe a run up to 220 is not out of the picture before another large drop. Conditions seem oversold and it appears that way on the 4hr on up.
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Downside risk being limited should be a given.

My post was a snapshot of the current price action at that time but I don't see anything bullish about the 4 hour at this very moment. More of a serious consolidation with a downward flavor. Trendline break is the upward key and a close below 213.8 is the downward key. 220 could certainly be in the cards as it's obviously R3 but 217 is R2 and 216.25 is R1. One bridge at a time.

We'll have our answer shortly.
 
TP hit +79.

Not sure I believe the upside argument here. As GBP weakness, JPY neutrality, equity market rebound are all under-currents here. AUD/JPY is a better long play. If necessarily I will wait for a retrace to get long again.
213.50 is the line in the sand for the downside.
 
Looks like I probably missed the boat as far as adding more. Things really took off. Take a look at EUR/JPY, it's now well above it upper-band, consolidative range.

Things to come for GBP/JPY?


Are you still holding the shorts Frank?
 
Quote from Cambist:

Looks like I probably missed the boat as far as adding more. Things really took off. Take a look at EUR/JPY, it's now well above it upper-band, consolidative range.

Things to come for GBP/JPY?


Are you still holding the shorts Frank?
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Still short but gave back some of my gain in the past few hours. System isn't showing any signs of throwing in the towel yet. That 100p rally seems exhausted.

EY broke the 161.75 R1 which was quite significant and might test the 162.30 shortly. Next up is 164.
 
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