GBA's "2021 Stock Phantasma"

Morgan Stanley believes optionality from eVTOLs is underestimated at current share levels

Shares of Textron (TXT) are on the rise on Tuesday after Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag upgraded the stock to Overweight with a Street-high price target of $87. The analyst cited strength in the company's business jet side and highlighted Textron as a "strong contender as market leader" in electric vertical takeoff and landing.

CAPEX CYCLE, URBAN AIR MOBILITY UPSIDE: In a research note to investors on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag upgraded Textron to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $87, up from $49. While the market has already started valuing the return of business jets, the "red-hot capex cycle" in the U.S. could provide further share upside, Liwag contended. The analyst was previously cautious regarding a recovery of business jets given "many false positives since the financial crisis." However, Liwag acknowledged that she missed the initial inflection point for Textron Aviation, and now sees the stars aligning for a strong recovery.

Additionally, the analyst believes that Textron is a "strong contender as a market leader" in electric vertical takeoff and landing, with optionality from eVTOLs underestimated at current share levels. The breadth of Textron’s portfolio uniquely positions the company as a strong contender as a market share leader in the eVTOL industry particularly as most of the competitors are new entrants that have never certified an aircraft before, she explained. Further, Textron’s expertise in distributed electric propulsion, tiltrotor, propeller design, automation, and aircraft certification provide the company an "unparalleled advantage" in designing and manufacturing eVTOL aircraft, Liwag added.

WHAT'S NOTABLE: Several companies in the urban air mobility space have recently announced deals to come public via SPAC mergers. Urban helicopter service Blade Urban Air Mobility (BLDE) had first announced that it was merging with KSL Capital's Experience Investment (EXPC) back in December, while two early-stage eVTOL aircraft developers – Archer and Joby Aviation - announced SPAC mergers earlier this year. Archer is planning to merge with Moelis & Co.'s Atlas Crest Investment Corp. (ACIC), while Joby Aviation has agreed to go public with Reid Hoffman and Mark Pincus's Reinvent Technology Partners (RTP). Earlier this month, Zanite Acquisition Corp. (ZNTEU) confirmed that it is in negotiations relating to a potential business combination with Eve Urban Air Mobility Solutions, a subsidiary of Embraer (ERJ).

PRICE ACTION: In Tuesday morning trading, shares of Textron have gained over 3% to $69.36.
 
The plans
In April, the Korean Economic Daily reported that Coupang was hiring team members to launch into Singapore sometime shortly. More recently, rumors have come out that the company wants to move into Japan and Malaysia as well. These three countries look like good fits for Coupang to replicate its business model. Singapore is a small but densely populated area, similar to Seoul, South Korea. It is a lot smaller than Coupang's home country, with a population of only 5.7 million people versus South Korea's 51.7 million.

Japan has a much larger population than South Korea, with 126 million citizens, and Tokyo is the largest urban area in the world with a total population of around 38 million people. This could be a huge opportunity for Coupang if it can make inroads within the Japanese market. Malaysia isn't as rich of a country as Singapore or Japan, but it has a fast-growing urban center in Kuala Lumpur with a population of 8.2 million.

I mention these population numbers because Coupang's value proposition relies on it operating in large, densely populated urban centers like Seoul. The company has built an end-to-end logistics network with its own warehouses, delivery drivers, and technology systems that allows it to offer one and same-day delivery to most of its members on its e-commerce marketplace. This owned network within these urban centers also allows Coupang to add services on top of its core e-commerce offering, like food and grocery delivery. Expect it to try to replicate this model if/when it launches in these new markets.

It will face stiff competition
Coupang has come to dominate South Korean e-commerce, and a big reason for that is the minimal competition it has from large, well-capitalized players. That will change once it moves outside of its home country.

In Singapore and Malaysia, the platform will face competition from Shopee, which is owned by Sea Limited (NYSE:SE), and Lazada, which is owned by Alibaba (NYSE:BABA). These two companies have large market caps and a lot of money to invest. Coupang's main competitor in Japan will be Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), the well-known e-commerce giant. Amazon only has a 25% market share in the country, so there's a lot of opportunity for other platforms like Coupang to emerge and grow.
 
Alright I have to check out. Charts apparently are starting not to look good. One particularly distressing one they showed on Bloomberg TV this morning. S&P new high while S&P 500 stocks trading below their 100 day increasing. Quite a divergence.

The reopening trade unwound. Why? Are we not still reopening? Is America not ranked #1 for dealing with Covid? I don't get it. A lot of Delta variant talk on the beach / as well WHO saying masks should still be worn! F&89!

A lot to think about. ~
 
stonedinvestor said:
Thanks janes I'll look into it. Any broadening out to Taiwan (being discussed) will set this baby off. I had forgotten about them.
More...
some article i forget where said that around sept might be when coupang starts climbing. i think there's a big release of shares that happens then that have some people waiting?
 
geez it's really running today. i don't know why. it's been pretty weak recently.

Coupang Inc
43.72 USD+5.47 (14.30%)today
Jun 29, 11:33 AM EDT ·
 
stonedinvestor said:
Better Crayons? How have these guys lost their wy?

Danimer Scientific receives U.S. patent for renewable, biodegradable marking wax 08:03 DNMR Danimer Scientific announced that it received a U.S. Patent for a renewable, biodegradable marking wax that serves as an alternative to petrochemical-based paraffin wax. The patent was jointly awarded to Danimer Scientific and its partner in developing the material, Rob Falken, an environmentally focused material developer based in San Diego. The material can be used to make plant-based, compostable crayons that reliably break down in industrial composting facilities and home compost bins, unlike traditional crayons made with non-renewable paraffin wax that can take decades to decompose.
More...
Ha!
They're not fooling me Stoney.
No way they were fooling around looking for ways to make crayons biodegradable.
They're working on replacements for our ongoing theme here.
Plastics.

While this may not work as a bonding agent with emulsified paper in single use containers designed for hot foods, it could easily be used for a million other packaging applications that need the rigidity of plastic.

We've talked about DNMR before. It's one of those companies that take a lot to move (the stock price).
Solid, but slow.
Bigger picture though, this is good news. For the environment at least.
And who knows, maybe it will be something big.

Crayons.... lol.
Yeah right. :rolleyes:

DNMR is worthy of Granny stock status Stoney.
Pretty sure I've said that before.

______________________________

EDIT....
oops, here ya go.
the first time it was ever mentioned on ET.

vanzandt said:
Hey Stoney, remember last Fall we were talking about that private Brit company that was making plastics out of vegetable oils? Remember how we wished we could get in?

Well look what we missed:

$DNMR

It's a SPAC.

They bought these guys.

https://danimerscientific.com/our-commitment-to-sustainability/
More...

I had totally forgot.
See I was right... this was NOT about crayons.
As always... intuition.
;)

EDIT #2....
That whole spac thing though, ahhhhhh..... I had forgot about that too.
Granny can wait on this one.

EDIT #3....
20 more views and we tick 100K Stoney!

upload_2021-6-29_21-19-7.jpeg
 
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