GBA's "2021 Stock Phantasma"

vanzandt said:
No you missed my point about UTZ.
I guess I wasn't clear.
It wasn't about the stock of UTZ, it was about the price they negotiated for that company.
We could have substituted UTZ with company "XYZ". The point was look at what they paid.
3X ebitda.
They paid what the company was worth. Not a penny more.

If Calloway went to buy DriveShack... they would probably pay in the neighborhood of a similar metric.
Be it sales or book value or whatever.
See what I mean here?
My point was, people are paying (via buying stocks) exorbitant amounts for companies that aren't worth 1/10th that amount and could never sell themselves for that amount in a one off deal. Its all bs. Lynch would agree.

Anyway speaking of... your kid's Roblox is back up near $75, so I guess Boston U is back on. Good.
:thumbsup:
More...
--> Oh no he sold RBLX last week and is going to enter UBISOFT.

I told him to take his gain and move on. Boston U which has a very good Marine Biology school I need off the list. Too expensive but both my wife and I went Liberal arts there.. so we will apply but I'll be hoping he goes to a more affordable school... College Of Charleston! That's the one I want. i don't know why, I see pictures of kids chilling at Folly beach and I just want that lifestyle for him. Oh and COC i's also ranked as most affordable Marine Biology school! Nabbed a top 10 list!
:)
 
I'm starting to see some smart outfits taking positions in Li , NIO & XPeng. (XPEV)

Swiss Central Bank Bought Li Auto, XPeng, Zoom, and This Marijuana Stock

  • ···
May 16, 2021 7:00 am ET
Switzerland’s central bank recently made big changes in its stock portfolio.

The Swiss National Bank initiated a position in Chinese electric-vehicle firm Li Auto (ticker: LI), and raised its holdings in XPeng (XPEV), another Chinese EV company. The bank also bought more shares of videoconferencing firm Zoom Video Communications (ZM), and increased its stake in Tilray (TLRY), a marijuana grower. The Swiss National Bank disclosed the trades, among others, in a form it filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The...

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If anyone gets these barons updates tell us how large the buys were.
 
Hasn't really given us an entry point but looks very strong-

Farmer Bros. Co. (FARM)
NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD

10.83+0.44 (+4.23%)<----------------
As of 11:15AM EDT.

Central Garden & Pet Company (CENT)
NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD

$56.74-1.15 (-1.99%)
As of 11:15AM EDT. Market open.

Possibilities $1 Lower.

The AZEK Company Inc. (AZEK)
NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD

43.33-1.14 (-2.56%)
As of 11:17AM EDT. Market open.

$41.60 is 200 day. VAN WHERE DID WE WANT THIS??? WE HAVE TO BE CLOSE.>>>>>

I don't see how this doesn't workout.
Reason Lumber has 3X!!!! It's too expensive...
Even a downbeat analyst has a PT of $53!

Azek price weakness a buying opportunity, says Baird 06:37 AZEK Baird analyst Timothy Wojs raised the firm's price target on Azek to $54 from $53 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The analyst said the weakness in the shares is a buying opportunity as the company reported solid Q2 results. He continues to like the secular growth prospects from material conversion, margin opportunity from recycling, and multiple expansion potential.

VS. (before very good earn)

Azek initiated with a Neutral at JPMorgan 05/05 AZEK JPMorgan analyst Michael Rehaut initiated coverage of Azek with a Neutral rating and $53 price target. The company is well positioned to maintain if not build upon its composite decking industry market share via product diversification and end market expansion, which should drive "strong" double-digit sales growth over at least the next two years, Rehaut tells investors in a research note. However, the stock's valuation looks "relatively full," says the analyst. Show Related Items >>
 
Our facilities are running full out to meet accelerated demand. Phase 2 of our previously announced $180 million capacity expansion program is scheduled to be completed by the end of the third quarter of our fiscal 2021, providing cumulatively 40% more decking capacity. Given the very strong demand environment, operationally, we remain focused on customer service. To position us for additional long-term growth and conversion opportunity, we are further upsizing our capacity investments by approximately $50 million to $60 million for the remainder of fiscal 2021.
 
We continue to evaluate additional opportunities to maximize our capacity. We are very focused on the customer impact of this inflationary environment and we have taken appropriate actions to offset this inflation with the least amount of disruption to our customer base through a combination of pricing and continued productivity initiatives. As it relates to pricing, during the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020, we announced a low single-digit price increase that went into effect at the beginning of the calendar year. During our fiscal second quarter, we implemented an additional price increases with low single-digit range that will begin flowing through in late fiscal Q3.

And we recently announced a third price increase across both our Residential and Commercial businesses that will begin to take effect during fiscal Q4. We expect the combination of our price increases and productivity initiatives to fully offset inflation during Q4.

I think the way to think about capacity, and just as a reminder, we have additional capacity that is coming online as part of that Phase 2 near the end -- during this quarter. The machines are actually in and they're going through the ramp-up phase, as we speak. So we expect to see the benefit of that action near the end of this month. And then this additional capacity, what it allows us to do is bring an additional 15% online in the fall, into the winter.
 
This inflation we have to take it seriously.

As you recall from our last earnings call, we said we're seeing a lot of inflation and at that point in time, we had announced our second price increase to address that, largely taking effect later part of Q3 and then in full in Q4. Since the last earnings call, just for perspective, we've seen $30 million -- about $30 million of additional inflation, largely driven by the freeze situation in Texas and Louisiana but we saw -- we've seen resins in particular spike very substantially. And now they've stabilized but at a pretty high level -- very high level. So we took a third price increase.
 
Thanks for taking my questions. My first question is just to clarify, that incremental $30 million in costs that you guys saw from last quarter, is that just coming from the virgin PVC inflation you're seeing? And if so, any way you could provide either on a dollar or percentage basis, what's the total cost inflation you're currently experiencing? And what's embedded in your guide? Thanks.

Ralph Nicoletti--Chief Financial Officer

Yes. So I could add a little bit more perspective to it. First, I think just stepping back, we're seeing inflation in a lot of places. I mean, we're seeing it in labor, we're seeing it in freight, we're seeing it in -- certainly in our raw materials, as we talk about.
 
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