GBA's "2021 Stock Phantasma"

Quietly on Fri-
Central Garden & Pet upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus 07:49 CENT Argus analyst John Staszak upgraded Central Garden & Pet to Buy from Hold with a $68 price target. The company has benefited from increased pet ownership and reduced mobility during the pandemic as consumers spend more time at home, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Central Garden has also been gaining market share through acquisitions, and its growth efforts are paying off through earnings and revenue guidance increases in recent quarters, Staszak adds.

Over a month ago Truist said:

Truist upgrades Central Garden & Pet to Buy on 'right' operational strategy, M&A 03/24 CENT As previously reported, Truist analyst Bill Chappell upgraded Central Garden & Pet to Buy from Hold with a price target of $65, up from $45, while also raising his FY21 EPS view to $2.72 from $2.10 and FY22 to $2.96 from $2.21. The analyst is updating his model to reflect a "conservative" accretion estimate from the company's 3 acquisitions announced over the past 100 days. Chappell adds that he has long seen Central Garden & Pet as being well positioned in pet and garden category, but now believes that it also also the "right strategy" operationally and on M&A to yield consistent growth, with the impact of the pandemic having a long-term benefit for both categories.

Alright. Friday The Company also had a CC with Truist.

I would bet Monday morning we get a reiteration of buy. > I hope I have enough time to go through the acquisitions but one way to grow of course is to simply buy growth. (Just ask TMO)

MONDAY BUY-) ) ) ) )

Central Garden & Pet Company (CENT)
NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD

57.89+0.56 (+0.98%)
At close: May 14 4:00PM EDT
 
There's a couple Giant themes that are interesting. One is that chip shortage. I mean that is really going to slow down the economy and stop us from overheating!! <-- It could be good news but it could also result in some eye opening numbers economically that would have folks doubting this rebound. Think about it if a guy cannot lease a car when he wants one in cushy Stanford Ct.... because of chip shortage that has a ripple effect.

These used cars are hotcakes!! Rumor is China is buying up used cars to tear out the electronics! Everyone wants these chips. So all these used car stocks are way hot. I'm afraid to hold them and there are too many! It's a pain. Used cars are hot!

I'll be getting my 87 Jeep Wagoneer out of the barn son and THIS IS MY YEAR!! > If I wanted to. This would be the year to sell it. With the new model coming out. I'll be hopefully driving with a little less fear and a little more pride.

increased pet ownership---> Another Giant theme. My wife is part of a small shop here in Ct Flowers & Jewelry! A first of combination in retail... the storefront next door has been taken by two girls who are opening a pet store high end dog pillows and grooming etc. They got to talking... My wife came home and said jesus there's a lot of money in dog accessories.

Apparently it is boontown time. ) CENT could be a nice play for this trend.
 
stonedinvestor said:
Van you seem afraid of data. Think of every companies prospects and every note and mention on them, they all go into this mind as data. And you are very lucky because this mind filters through all the nonsense and gives you just the most relevant, actionable info. I check for Price targets and I check for last mentions and I never follow an analyst who is chasing a price. I go deeper than any other news assimilation site and then not only recommend the idea, I put my own money on it and prosper greatly.

If you had followed each and every move of this mind from the last thread to now you would owe the Us Gov $250K dollars as I did. (Overall bill actually $500K when you incorporate this year's qtrlies)

You may not want that. I know I don't ever again want to make as much as in the last year-- it's not worth it. I spend as much as I trade and after the taxes I have very little left. They wiped me out.

So good or bad, you have before you one of Wall Streets last idea men.. The 'Barker' or Shouter this is a position that no longer exists in the finance world but you used to be able to work for a major house without a series 17 or whatever they used to ask me for, and you could simply call up the best ideas and every one would follow you. They follow you because you have that ability to flow with the info and news and mass amounts of data and out Quant a Quant which is a rare ability.

That is the reason you here on this thread. In case you were wondering.. but I enjoy the banter as well. ~si
More...

Stoney here's the thing brother, you can't just evaluate a stock based on the fact that it sounds good and you think the future holds a place for the concept.

I mean yes, innovative ideas/business models are great... but how many times have I wrote the following(?):

a business is a business is a business.

It's like DriveShack. You totally ignored the fundamentals and went on and on about parties and golf for the 'great re-open'. Sure, they can be busy as all get out, but does that justify valuing a company at 10X what its actually worth?!

You get mad at me for pinging you on the cut and pastes. You counter it with "I take it all in".
Well.... then you need to also learn how to read a financial statement.
Period.

These stocks go up on stupid money... but THEY ALWAYS COME DOWN.
Look at Affirm. WRAP. And tons of others.
I have no idea how you made $500K last year. You must have sold some you've held forever, but it wasn't off our last thread.

Let me send you down a rabbit-hole for a few.

Last week UTZ bought a tortilla chip operation out of Michigan. Read the details. They paid like 3X ebitda for the company.
Smart. A good CEO.
That's the way you buy a company.
3X ebitda.
You pay what its actually worth.

Now why in the world would someone recommend buying a company at 200X ebitda?
I mean for a biotech, yes. If you know what's up and what lies ahead with a reasonable amount of expertise. And maybe for a software company, the incremental cost of one more widget is nil. But one has to look at everything else before they buy in. Sure, maybe get lucky and catch a spike on a flavor of the day pumping media pump... but in the end Stoney... water seeks its level. And that's another one I've written dozens of times.

So whatever.
There's trades, and then there's granny stocks.
Trades are hype.
Granny stocks are for long term wealth creation.
 
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I actually sold UTZ last week Van. The Pandemic is over and people are fat enough.

There is no long term wealth creation from the moment I announced the bull market was over which was about two months ago. I said all we can do from here on out is trade nothing can be held with a year's point of view. And indeed that's exactly how I feel nothing I see is worth holding.

Good News/ Bad News Niu flying high in China but International looks bad.
Still 60% revenue growth YOY is nothing to sneeze at.


  • Niu Technologies foresees Q2 revenue growth by 40%-60%<----!!!!!
    • Niu Technologies(NASDAQ:NIU)reports number of e-scooters sold inQ1expanded 272.6% Y/Y to 149,649; e-scooters sold in China rose 321.5% Y/T to 144,654 whereas in the international markets declined 14.5% Y/Y to 4,995.
    • The company saw overall revenue growth of 135% Y/Y, led by revenue growth of 207.3% in E-scooter sales from China market driven by retail network expansion and effective branding and marketing activities in China.
    • Gross margin rate +20 bps to 23.8%.
    • The company expects Q2 revenues in the range of RMB900M to RMB1.03B, representing growth of 40% to 60% Y/Y.
    • In April, the company launched 4 new products, F0, F2, F4 and C0 models, in the e-scooter category mainly for the China market, and one new product series, the KQi, entering the kick-scooter category mainly for international markets.
    • Shares up 1.5% premarket. NIU has grown ~230% over the period of one year.
 
Look at least it's not the my pillow guy, a lot of CNBC types seem to like this company. I don't understand what makes their mattress so great other than it's squeezable into a box--

CLOSE YER EYES AND BUY DEPT--

  • Purple Innovation EPS beats by $0.06, beats on revenue, raises 2021 outlook
    • Purple Innovation(NASDAQ:PRPL): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.17beats by $0.06; GAAP EPS of $0.17misses by $0.05.
    • Revenue of $186.43M (+52.3% Y/Y)beats by $12.21M.
    • The company now expects FY2021 net revenue to be between $860M-$900 M, up from its previous range of $840M-$880M.
    • For Q221, the company expects net revenue to be between $20M-$210M and adjusted EBITDA between $21M-$25M.
 



  • "Clients sold stocks across seven of the 11 sectors, led by Tech (biggest outflows since early Jan. amid last week’s Growth-to-Value rotation)," strategists led by Jill Carey Hall wrote in a note. "Rolling four-week avg. flows into Tech hit record levels in mid-March, and are now shifting increasingly negative. The last time Tech saw such extreme inflows (both absolute and vs. mkt. cap) was in Jan’14, after which it underperformed over the next 3 mos."
 
Oh boy the Queen's Gambit crew cannot be happy--

Women's healthcare company Femasys files for $40M IPO
  • Femasys, a biomedical company focused on women's health, has filed for a $40.25M IPO.
  • The company would list on the Nasdaq under the ticker "FEMY."
  • Chardan and JonesTrading are acting as book-runners.
  • Femasys (FEMY) has two marketed products, FemVue for infertility diagnosis and FemServ for endocervical tissue biopsy.
  • In the clinical stage, it has FemBloc and FemChec for, respectively, permanent birth control and occlusion confirmation.
 
--William Blair starts DoubleVerify at Outperform, sees 30%-plus growth 07:43 DV Willi

--Kosmos upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA 07:40 KOS

--Ubisoft upgraded to Buy from Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux 07:39 UBSFY-!!!!!!!!

I have no idea who Cheuvreuz is but we are simpatico!!!!!!
 
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