GBA's "2021 Stock Phantasma"

TROX might have overperformed and exceeded earnings expectations in 2020, but it is still in a tricky situation in terms of profitability. The company has negative earnings in the last five years and only became profitable last year. After the stellar 2020 performance, earnings is expected to decline by around 56% annually in the next three years. The company’s estimated revenue growth of 6.5% is lower than the 10.5% expected growth of the US Market. TROX is yet to deliver a healthy balance sheet in terms of financial position. Debt to equity ratio of 209% is considered high and is potentially unsustainable. TROX' debt is not well covered by operating cash flow, and EBIT is insufficient to cover interest payments.
 
Alfalfa

S&W offers the largest and most diverse offering of alfalfa seed varieties



Sorghum
Fast growing and high yielding hybrid sorghum varieties by S&W offer farmers unparalleled performance



Sunflower
Proven top performing hybrid sunflower varieties to meet grower expectations around the world



Stevia
Enhanced flavor profiles coupled with improved mechanical harvesting capabilities allow S&W’s stevia varieties to rise above the rest

SEEDS.

S&W Seed Company (SANW)-- I have been hearing about a shortage of seeds...
NasdaqCM - NasdaqCM Real Time Price. Currency in USD

$3.6000+0.0100 (+0.28%)
At close: February 19 4:00PM EST

--
Quarterly Results

Earnings per share decreased 21.05% over the past year to ($0.23), which missed the estimate of ($0.18).

Revenue of $15,051,000 rose by 21.84% from the same period last year, which beat the estimate of $14,670,000.

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Company's 52-week high was at $4.19

52-week low: $1.67

Price action over last quarter: Up 75.66%

 
Can well sell the rights to those cow farts to MSFT?

We continue with the strategy of moving from our history of being a single crop company in alfalfa to now obviously focusing on alfalfa, but also sorghum, sunflower, wheat, stevia and the Pasture product that we acquired in our acquisition of Pasture Genetics early in the calendar year last year.

And I haven't said much about the pasture products. And so I wanted to just spend a minute speaking about those. They're mainly right now our product lines focused in Australia, although we're moving those products to the U.S. also. In Australia, we believe that there is a huge opportunity to improve both the pasture and animal yields per acre in Australia, and we see some very innovative things happening on the pasture side.

So on the animal side, we see people trying to manage the cattle on a much more renewable, regenerative basis. So there's this term regenerative agriculture, where animals really are part of the process to generate uptake of carbon into the pastures. And so we see the first deal in Australia, Wilmot Cattle Company in New South Wales, Australia just announced the sale of $500,000 of carbon credits to Microsoft. We think that's the kind of deal that you're going to see more of and we think our position in pasture products allows us to work with those cattle companies like Wilmot and create these kind of opportunities.

I HAVE SEEN THE FUTURE! ~stoney
 
Better digestion for the animals= less farts = more carbon credits to sell in the open market

Our first trait introduction is happening as we speak in the Northern Hemisphere's Spring planting season. So we're gearing up to introduce our Double Team Sorghum, which is a broad spectrum grass herbicide that we gene that we have embedded in our elite sorghum products. And then in the fall, we're going to be concentrating on introducing our first alfalfa trait. And that's our improved quality trait where we basically down regulated the Lignin pathway. And we've created a more digestible alfalfa for dairy and beef calves.
 
So it's an exciting time for all seed companies and it's a great time for the seed industry and for other input industries because commodity prices are high and farmers can make money.

Now as we look to the remainder of the year, we're increasing our guidance for core revenue and total revenue. We now expect core revenue to be within a range of $78 million to $81 million for fiscal 2021, representing core revenue growth of 30% to 35%. This rapid growth is expected to come primarily from our two key home markets that Mark touched on the United States and Australia. And as a reminder, we previously provided guidance that core revenue growth would increase 22% to 32% year-over-year.
 
And we're such an interesting company. And I'm glad that the public is starting to appreciate that, we're -- we have technology. We're not as technology focused as some of the smaller companies in the ag industry, but we do have technology. But what we also have is, we got based on our guidance here, we've got $100 million in sales. And you've got to look long and far to find a company that has both technology and the ability to distribute it in real products.

Mark, you kind of touched upon this a little bit. And this was a question I did want to ask even prior, obviously, you're building out your trait, trait development, all the technology around that you do have some distribution here in U.S., Australia, in Pasture Genetics. At what point does S&W become an attractive company or other? Are these technology companies that you mentioned sell to you? Am I looking for you to sell? But may at some point, do companies start coming to you and say, hey, you got a lot of attributes, middle market, a lot of distribution? Is that an opportunity in the mid-term?

Mark Wong

Sure, Gerry. Great question also. Yes, definitely it's an opportunity. And definitely, we're in those kind of discussions with companies all the time. We're always focused on our six crops, right, so how these discussions are usually generated is, we know all the technology companies, they know us. I've been in the business 40 years, I know all these guys.
 
Gerry Sweeney

Got it. And the question is probably inverted. These two questions are probably inverted, but the first one was sort of a natural progression. But I may have asked this in the past but middle markets may be under invested by the big guys just from maybe pure business or economic reason. Is there anything you would like to have improved invest and acquire to sort of broaden out or better position the market? I know it's a pretty-wide open question.

Mark Wong

I'm smiling only because you're such a smart guy and I'm trying to figure out what how much I want to say about that, right.

Gerry Sweeney

That's why I ask a question -- I just ask a broad question, not small indicative [ph].

Mark Wong

Yes. So do I really want to sort of stake out ground here? Or do I want to sort of keep some things a little bit, I did the best.

Gerry Sweeney

You can defer quarter-on-quarter I'll just ask it, [indiscernible].

Mark Wong

No, no, no you're a smart guy. All the analysts that follow us are really smart guys. And we appreciate that you pay attention to us and are interested enough in ag and in the seed industry to put the time into understanding S&W.

I'll just say, we really like the pasture area. Obviously, we're moving those products from Australia to the U.S. And so U.S. acquisition to bolster our product line in pastures, sort of North American acquisition, that would be something we would consider.

GBA Will Be Taking a Position in S&W seeds next week....
 
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