GBA's "2021 Stock Phantasma"

Upland Software, Inc. (UPLD) - $10 upside here easy. My target is $56 but I'm in a long time already so take that for what it's worth.


$37.50-0.65 (-1.70%)<--
As of 11:58AM EDT.
 


12629971-16288011068122857.png


Van This had the big insider buy.

ET's management probably lost some fans and investors after the distribution was cut, many have commented their disdain for ET's management, especially Kelcy Warren.<-- Insider buy guy//

During Q2 2021, ET reduced its outstanding debt by approximately $1.5 billion. This was accomplished by allocating cash from operations and proceeds from the recent Series H preferred unit offering. In 2021 ET has reduced its long-term debt by approximately $5.2 billion and strengthened its balance sheet. ET's metrics continue to improve as distributable cash flow increased from $1.27 billion to $1.39 billion in Q2 2021 compared to 2020. ET's excess cash flow after distributions was approximately $980 million. ET's adjusted EBITDA also increased from $2.44 billion to $2.62 billion over the same period....

Energy Transfer
IRA stk?
 
Credit where credit due.

Great Find Stoney!

But I knew a winner when I saw it lol.
Like GrowGen@$6... among others. (another classic Stoney find early in its game)
:p

Ok here's the deal Stoney.... ordinarily I like to pick your ideas apart. Most are pretty easy. Some I don't even bother with... IE The Slinger. :D

BUT.... wait for it, I saved the best for last.... I did look into POWW....

Two thumbs up from Yulia.
I like their management, I like their books, I like their acquisition of Gunbroker.com. I like their new 160,000 sqf facility... I like it all.

Buy Buy Buy!

Did I mention their addition to the Russell 2000?

BUY BUY BUY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Up 5.5% ah's.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


SCOTTSDALE, AZ, August 16, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — AMMO, Inc. (Nasdaq: POWW, POWWP) (“AMMO” or the “Company”), a leading vertically integrated producer of high-performance ammunition and components and operator of GunBroker.com, the largest online marketplace serving the firearms and shooting sports industries today announced results for its first quarter of fiscal 2022 ended June 30, 2021.



First Quarter Fiscal 2022 versus First Quarter Fiscal 2021:


Net revenues increased 360% year-over-year to $44.5 million

● Marketplace revenue was $12.3 million reflecting the acquisition of GunBroker.com

Gross profit margin was 42.7% compared to 11.1%

Net income was $9.5 million compared to a net loss of $3.1 million

Diluted EPS of $0.08 compared to ($0.07); Adjusted EPS of $0.13 compared to ($0.01)

● Adjusted EBITDA was $16.3 million versus a loss of $0.3 million

Backlog of $238 million



“We delivered solid first quarter results, exceeding estimates for revenue and Adjusted EBITDA. Core ammunition sales were up more than three-fold reflecting strong underlying demand for our unique, high-performance products. We also added over $12 million of high-margin Marketplace revenue with the GunBroker.com acquisition that closed in April,” said Fred Wagenhals, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of AMMO, Inc. “Integration efforts are advancing on schedule and we are working on several major initiatives to further accelerate growth across our powerful Marketplace platform. Construction of our new manufacturing facility is also on track and we continue to make progress with new product development and government contracts. I am very proud of our team’s commitment and execution in driving significant value for all stakeholders.”



First Quarter Fiscal 2022 Results



Net revenues of $44.5 million were up 360% versus last year driven by strong growth in Ammunition and incremental revenue from the acquisition of GunBroker.com. Ammunition sales totaled $28.4 million compared to $6.4 million in last year’s first quarter, an increase of 342%. Marketplace revenue was $12.3 million reflecting the GunBroker.com business we acquired on April 30, 2021.



Gross profit was $19.0 million in the first quarter versus $1.1 million in the year-earlier period due to the increased sales of Ammunition coupled with the addition of our Marketplace segment, which included GunBroker.com. Gross profit margin was 42.7% in the first quarter compared to 11.1% in last year’s first quarter reflecting the impact of our higher margin Marketplace revenue.



Operating expenses were $9.3 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2022 compared to $3.9 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2021. The increase was attributable to operating the GunBroker.com business for approximately two months, higher commission payments stemming from growth in our Ammunition sales, higher stock-based compensation expense, and professional fees related to the acquisition of GunBroker.com. As a percent of sales, operating expenses declined to 20.9% in the first quarter of fiscal 2022 from 40.0% in the year-earlier period reflecting operating leverage, manufacturing scale and the mix shift in favor of higher margin Marketplace revenues.


Operating income for the first quarter of fiscal 2022 was $9.7 million compared to an operating loss of $2.8 million in last year’s first quarter.

Net income was $9.5 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2022 compared to a net loss of $3.1 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2021. Net income available to common shareholders was $9.2 million or $0.08 per fully diluted share versus a net loss of $3.1 million and ($0.07) per fully diluted share in the first quarter of fiscal 2021. Adjusted net income per share was $0.13 in versus an adjusted per share loss of ($0.01).


Adjusted EBITDA was $16.3 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2022 compared to an adjusted EBITDA loss of $0.3 million a year earlier.

Outlook

We are increasing our fiscal 2022 revenue guidance from $190 million to $210 million, including reiterating our expectation for second quarter fiscal 2022 revenue of at least $51 million. We estimate third quarter fiscal 2022 revenue will be approximately $60 million.

We are increasing our Adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal 2022 from $65 million to $70 million.
 
Last edited:
Ya know what Stoney....

Friggin Home Depot.
They report this week.

I'm going out on the ultimate contrarian limb here.....
$332
Put this thing in Granny's shorts.

I realize they're a cash-cow.... and everyone on Wall Street loves them... AND any PM in the world would look like a fool to not own them... but there comes a point when a big box retailer reaches maturity and future growth starts impacting gross margins in a negative way. I think HD is there.

Perhaps overseas the model will still work in a big way, but imo, U.S. growth is over. If that's the case, then the only way to deliver q over q bottom line expansion is to keep raising prices on BS that costs less than $30.

Keep in mind, HD generates more profit off of a blister pack of $3.99 wall hangers than it does off of a $2700 riding mower.

Now... there will always be the convenience factor, and that WILL allow them to continue raising prices on merchandise one needs today... but 3X AMZN stores(?!)..... ahhhh.... whatever... I can still see the convenience factor I guess.

But one has to look at the bigger picture here.
The cost of new stores and the land underneath.
Where aren't they at?!

Plus the labor and lights.
That's gonna be a biggy too.

This week is retail reporting week.

I say let HD report a record breaking top and bottom line.... let it run...and then go in and short the thing around 2PM.

Ballsy call on my part I know.
Maybe wait for $400 instead of playing it on earnings day, because this thing is so damn loved...
But it has topped.

And yeah I know... the chart mocks me.... but hey..... I write what I feel.

HD
$332

Home Depot shares tumble despite earnings beat, retailer rang up fewer customers as DIY trends weaken

Home Depot shares tumbled nearly 4% in premarket trading Tuesday after the company said fewer customers visited its stores during the fiscal second quarter as pandemic-fueled do-it-yourself projects tapered off.

The home improvement retailer also didn't provide a full-year outlook in its earnings release.

While Home Depot's quarterly profit and revenue beat Wall Street estimates...
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/17/home-depot-hd-q2-2021-earnings.html


:rolleyes:
 
Last edited:
Hey Van they want you to get a booster shot are you going to do it?

I am not. NYC says you need to show your vaccinated to go indoors anywhere? Well, if they ask for proof of a third shot i guess I'm ordering in. I am not going to be bossed around to the point of putting a third round of drugs into my body... Unless they are shrooms or something, not going to do it. How much of America will? It's a losing fight Joe B just like Afghanistan-- what have you done Joe? A Booster shot & giving a country to fanatical morons... not a good week.

Which mistake is worse for home consumption-- amazingly the Booster shot... You have a hard enough time getting people to take 2 doses.. now three, then four, then five, then we explode.

The answer is NO.

Thanks for the update on Ammo! I was so mad last week I didn't look assuming the worst as I do. I am so confused now about this re opening. Is it happening or not? I have had my reopening stocks false start about five times... always they roll back. The roaring 20's is feeling more like the high inflation 70's.

>Park Hotels & Resorts upgraded to Hold from Sell at Truist 08:00 PK I like this name. It's worth north of $24. Last check- $18. The risk reward here is VERY good. I think I'm going to put this away in the IRA and not look at it. "If you look you will sell"

>Wedbush bullish on Faraday Future, initiates with an Outperform 07:52 FFIE As previously reported, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives initiated coverage of Faraday Future with an Outperform rating and $17 price target. The analyst argues that the hiring of industry veteran CEO Carsten Breitfeld was a gamechanger to the Faraday story over the past few years. He believes Breitfeld to be the missing puzzle piece for Faraday, who should be able to execute on luxury EV initiatives over the coming years and establish itself as a key player in this impending green tidal wave. The company is now in a position of unique strength on the EV consumer luxury front and is shifting focus to the FF 91 scheduled to be released in 2022, Ives adds.
 
I'm not really clued in but apparently they are a whole bunch of super angry young investors- all mad at Bill Ack! I don't know why.

Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Tontine Holdings sued, NY Times reports 08:45 PSTH

This is a good name but I want to check and see if it was a SPAC- These guys constantly have a bright outlook- Porch.com likely not done raising guidance, says Benchmark 08:38 PRCH

Who doesn't want a green sky? GreenSky assumed with an Overweight at JPMorgan 08:39 GSKY

GreenSky assumed with an Overweight at JPMorgan 08:39 GSKY JPMorgan analyst Reginald Smith assumed coverage of GreenSky with an unchanged Overweight rating and price target of $13, down from $17. The analyst believes improved disclosures, a more diverse loan funding strategy, and accelerating transaction growth will drive positive earnings revisions and multiple expansion over the coming year.

Description

GreenSky, Inc., a technology company, that enables promotional financing at the point of sale for merchants, consumers, and bank partners. It offers a proprietary technology infrastructure that supports the full transaction lifecycle, including credit application, underwriting, real-time allocation to bank partners, document distribution, funding, settlement, and servicing functions. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
 
And then there was Ebay & Sprout Social...

Wow each and every Internet name that relies on folks staying at home and home learning etc. Has gotten wiped out. Even SNAP who hit all the metrics got taken down. Only Ebay remains...
Management there has been THAT good... Now RBLX!

Roblox price target lowered to $70 from $75 at Benchmark 08:51 RBLX

This may be interesting:

Description

TaskUs, Inc. provides outsourcing services for companies worldwide. It offers digital customer experience that consists of omni-channel customer care services primarily delivered through digital channels; and other solutions, including customer care services for new product or market launches, trust and safety solutions, and customer acquisition solutions. The company also offers content security services, such as review and disposition of user and advertiser generated content for various proposals (removal or labeling of policy violating, and offensive or misleading content); and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions that consist of data labeling, annotation, and transcription services for training and tuning AI algorithms through the process of machine learning. It caters to online or app-based businesses and transforming industries, such as entertainment and gaming, fintech, health tech, ride-sharing, retail and e-commerce, food and grocery delivery, streaming media, and online digital marketplaces. TaskUs, Inc. was formerly known as TU TopCo, Inc. and changed its name to TaskUs, Inc. in December 2020. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in New Braunfels, Texas with locations in Philippines, Taiwan, India, Europe, Colombia, the United States, and Mexico.

WoooHa them be some good sectors to be in.--> Company used to be called TU TopCo--
TaskUs price target raised to $52 from $50 at JPMorgan 08:38 TASK JPMorgan analyst Tien-tsin Huang raised the firm's price target on TaskUs to $52 from $50 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares after establishing December 2022 price targets for the sector.
There are all kinds of price targets-- The way behind, the lets get even, the stupid silly, the ignorant, But this kind: a meager $2 raise wouldn't be that important if the stk was trading close to that price... But TASK is $ 39.50<--- & so this must be looked at as a signal flare.
 
Back
Top