GBA PRESENTS- the public games

Van you made seven mistakes in a row. Your market timing as you said yourself is a coin flip and has the shelf life of bad fish.Until you take credit for all of those f ups you will remain second fiddle here, if that maybe third or fourth.

Like I said if you want to be taken seriously stop waiting till day of and peaking at futures only a 4th grader would fall for that pathetic action. You realize you get laughed at here right?o_O

I have so many emails of people just tearing you apart for being so wrong. I always reply give him time he's learning. When I called for two big drops in the market that both happened you were saying up, then when i predicted where the stocks would stop going down long before you... Then you jumped on my call and edged above it when the futures flipped. That's little baby stuff--

Next time we are in free fall- I'll ask you right then where we are stopping and you will vaporize par usual you won't even log on... The act is boring because you are not paying attention. You have a lazy side that really holds you back.

Do you think people are stupid here at ET? They know your games.

You have nothing to offer here unfortunately I wish you did. No good picks when we have delivered 22 20% gainers-- we just got the top performer #1 slot again Fri but only the HF reaped the gains.. I screwed that one up-- but I man up. If you want the latest & freshest info on stocks, you 0nly got one place here at ET-- ole' stoney station and if you want to know where the market is going you have only the top market guide in the universe who called both draw downs and got you out twice and then in to score 18 winning stock picks in a row from the ole Bargain bin. 18!

So you keep making the fool of yourself God bless ya, as I said we have more important fish to fry and the Children out there-they really are roasting you!!! You should see these emails- It's actually pretty harsh. I defend you.

Next big collapse I'll ask you right then for your stopping point and lets see how you do in real time. :cool:
 
Billionaires Warren Buffett, David Tepper, and Millionaire Stonedinvestor Are Sending a Very Clear Warning to Wall Street -- Are You Paying Attention?

Sat, September 21, 2024, 5:06 AM EDT6 min read

For the better part of two years, the bulls have been firmly in control on Wall Street. A resilient U.S. economy, coupled with excitement surrounding the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), have helped lift the ageless Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJINDICES: ^DJI), benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and growth-focused Nasdaq Composite(NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC)to multiple record-closing highs in 2024.

However,optimism isn't universal when it comes to investing. Some of the most prominent and widely followed billionaire money managers, including Berkshire Hathaway's(NYSE: BRK.A)(NYSE: BRK.B)Warren Buffett, Appaloosa's David Tepper, and Fundsmith's Terry Smith, have been sending an ominous warning to Wall Street with their trading activity. And top rated stock guru stonedinvestor known to be the most radical and free-thinking stock picker out there also has advised caution.

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Some of Wall Street's top investors are retreating to the sidelines
Although no money manager is a carbon copy of another, Buffett, Tepper, and Smith and stonedinvestor are cut from similar cloths. While they may have different areas of expertise or dabble in investment areas the other two may not -- e.g., David Tepper tends to be a bit of a contrarian and isn't afraid to invest in distressed assets, including debt -- stonedinvestor trades on gummys-- all four tend to be patient investors who focus on locating undervalued/underappreciated companies that can be held for long periods in their respective funds. It's a really simple formula that's worked well for all three billionaire investors.


When Form 13Fs are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission each quarter, professional and everyday investors flock to these reports to see which stocks, industries, sectors, and trends have been piquing the interest of Wall Street's brightest investment minds. However, the latest round of 13Fs had a surprise for investors who closely follow the trading activity of Buffett, Tepper, Smith and stonedinvestor..

The June-ended quarter marked the seventh consecutive quarter that Warren Buffett was a net seller of stocks. Jettisoning more than 389 million shares of top holding Apple during the second quarter, and north of 500 million shares, in aggregate, since Oct. 1, 2023, has led to a cumulative $131.6 billion in net stock sales since the start of October 2022.

Despite advocating that investors not bet against America, and emphasizing the value of long-term investing, Buffett's short-term actions haven't lined up with his long-term ethos.

But he's not alone.

David Tepper's Appaloosa closed out June with a 37-security investment portfolio worth around $6.2 billion. During the second quarter, Tepper and his team added to nine of these positions and reduced or completely sold his fund's stake in 28 others, includingAmazon,Microsoft,Meta Platforms, andNvidia. Tepper dumped 3.73 million shares of Nvidia, equating to more than 84% of Appaloosa's prior position.


U.K. stock picker extraordinaire Terry Smith ended June with a 40-stock portfolio worth roughly $24.5 billion. He added to his stakes in just three of these 40 stocks --Fortinet,Texas Instruments, andOddity Tech-- while reducing his fund's position in the other 37.

Stonedinvestor stopped hedge fund trading entirely preferring to take low share count stabs at truly eccentric companies nobody has heard of.

These patient and historically optimistic investors are sending a message that's undeniably clear: Value is hard to come by right now on Wall Street.

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Stocks are historically pricey -- and that's a problem
Although "value" is a completely subjective term, one valuation tool points to stocks being at one of their priciest levels in history, dating back to the 1870s. I'm talking about the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which is also known as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE ratio).

Most investors are probably familiar with the traditional P/E ratio, which divides a company's share price into its trailing-12-month earnings per share (EPS). While the P/E ratio tends to work pretty well for mature businesses, it falls short for growth stocks that reinvest a lot of their cash flow. It can also be adversely impacted by one-off events, such as the COVID-19 lockdowns.

The Shiller P/E ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted EPS over the last 10 years. Taking a decade's worth of earnings history into account means short-term events don't adversely affect this valuation model.

As of the closing bell on Sept. 16, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E stood at 36.27, which is just below its 2024 high of roughly 37, and more than double the 153-year average of 17.16, when back-tested to 1871.



To be fair, the Shiller P/E has spent much of the last 30 years above its historic average due to two factors:

  1. The internet democratized the access to information, which gave everyday investors more confidence to take risks.

  2. Interest rates spent more than a decade at or near historic lows, which encouraged investors to pile into higher-multiple growth stocks that can benefit from low borrowing costs.
But when examined as a whole, there are only two other periods throughout history where the S&P 500's Shiller P/E supported a higher level during a bull market. It peaked at 44.19 in December 1999, just prior to the dot-com bubble bursting, and briefly topped 40 during the first week of January 2022.

Following the dot-com bubble peak, the S&P 500 shed just shy of half of its value, while the Nasdaq Composite lost more than three-quarters before finding its footing. Meanwhile, the 2022 bear market saw the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all lose at least 20% of their value.


In 153 years, there have only been six occasions where the S&P 500's Shiller P/E has surpassed 30 during a bull market, including the present. Following all five previous instances, theminimumdownside in the S&P 500 has been 20%, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing as much as 89% during the Great Depression.

The point is that extended stock valuations can only be sustained for so long. Even though Warren Buffett would never bet against America, and Terry Smith is always on the lookout for undervalued assets, and stonedinvestor is always on the hunt like a shark neither billionaire money manager or million dollar stonedinvestor feels compelled to put their capital to work. In fact, Berkshire Hathaway was sitting on a record $276.9 billion in cash at the end of June, and Buffettstillisn't a buyer of stocks... other than shares of his own company. Stonedinvestor siys on $500,000 + and has $27,000 in new gains reserved for a beach house re do.

In short, some of Wall Street's most-successful long-term, value-seeking investors want little to do with the stock market right now, and it's a very clear warning that investors should be paying attention to.
 
Our best idea that hasn't run yet..... Rubrik.

Rubrik, Inc. (NYSE:RBRK) has enormous growth potential and analysts on Wall Street have recognized this. Piper Sandler recently initiated coverage of the stock with an Overweight rating and $42 price target, terming the stock one of the top investment ideas. In an investor note, the advisory noted that next-generation vendors were replacing legacy vendors, and tailwinds like ransomware, artificial intelligence and backup-as-a-service were driving shifts to vendors like Rubrik. The advisory sees the company growing 20% per year sustainably.
 
My political sources felt Trump was pretending to be scared to debate again.. and then he would gave this big reveal that he would debate again... I'm not so sure.

Trump rejects Harris' invitation for another debate :p

I guess alot depends on JD Backdoor Man and his debate if he does well Trump will lie low but if J.D comes off looking as stupid as he obviously is.. Trump I think last second could debate Kamala again...

Until then Trump is just...
 
The sell window for passive investing index funds opened Friday.....

In 153 years, there have only been six occasions where the S&P 500's Shiller P/E has surpassed 30 during a bull market, including the present. Following all five previous instances, the minimum downside in the S&P 500 has been 20%.
 
stonedinvestor said:
Van you made seven mistakes in a row. Your market timing as you said yourself is a coin flip and has the shelf life of bad fish.Until you take credit for all of those f ups you will remain second fiddle here, if that maybe third or fourth.

Like I said if you want to be taken seriously stop waiting till day of and peaking at futures only a 4th grader would fall for that pathetic action. You realize you get laughed at here right?o_O

I have so many emails of people just tearing you apart for being so wrong. I always reply give him time he's learning. When I called for two big drops in the market that both happened you were saying up, then when i predicted where the stocks would stop going down long before you... Then you jumped on my call and edged above it when the futures flipped. That's little baby stuff--

Next time we are in free fall- I'll ask you right then where we are stopping and you will vaporize par usual you won't even log on... The act is boring because you are not paying attention. You have a lazy side that really holds you back.

Do you think people are stupid here at ET? They know your games.

You have nothing to offer here unfortunately I wish you did. No good picks when we have delivered 22 20% gainers-- we just got the top performer #1 slot again Fri but only the HF reaped the gains.. I screwed that one up-- but I man up. If you want the latest & freshest info on stocks, you 0nly got one place here at ET-- ole' stoney station and if you want to know where the market is going you have only the top market guide in the universe who called both draw downs and got you out twice and then in to score 18 winning stock picks in a row from the ole Bargain bin. 18!

So you keep making the fool of yourself God bless ya, as I said we have more important fish to fry and the Children out there-they really are roasting you!!! You should see these emails- It's actually pretty harsh. I defend you.

Next big collapse I'll ask you right then for your stopping point and lets see how you do in real time. :cool:
More...
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