is this now the confirmation of the Hindenburg Omen?
Can help me please understand the
Hindenburg Omen?
Interesting question.- Despite its accolades and a fool-proof logic, the Hindenburg Omen is said to come with certain caveats. Claimed by some to offer a
25% accuracy, the validity of the Hindenburg Omen remains debatable.
strategist Jim Miekka
The Hindenburg Omen was created and popularized by market strategist
Jim Miekka, and is based on three factors that he discovered were quite common at major market tops.
But Miekka's analysis showed that market tops are usually marked by indecision, and, by looking for a situation where there are a healthy number of both new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows, we can confirm this unstable market state. We can see in the chart that we saw 2.5% of new highs and new lows on the same day earlier in the month of May.
Finally, the McClellan Oscillator needs to turn negative, that is, break below the zero level. This tactical market breadth indicator is based on the cumulative advance-decline line, and a break below zero represents a short-term bearish rotation in breadth conditions.
So what would make this a complete and confirmed Hindenburg Omen, similar to what we've seen a previous major market tops?
It's important to observe a second signal within one month of trading, as Miekka found that multiple signals in a relatively short period of time tended to further validate the indicator.
The basic idea is that
if a large number of stocks are making both 52-week highs and 52-week lows at the same time an uptrend is starting to turn lower, the market may be headed for a bigger decline.
This widely followed macro technical indicator focuses on three specific components: the market being in an uptrend,
an expansion in new highs and new lows, and negative market breadth.
Earlier in May, these three components aligned, signaling an initial sell signal that has historically coincided with major market tops......
But most folks I know wait for a second signal/ confirmation within 1 month. The Hindenberg cannot be trusted on it's own.