GBA Presents: THE GREEN MARKET

Ok I may have something. They only have two mines in Alabama so if one blew up we would be screwed. Ok BUT they also export to Europe -!

Description

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry. It operates two underground mines located in Alabama. The company sells its metallurgical coal to a customer base of blast furnace steel producers located primarily in Europe, South America, and Asia. It also sells natural gas, which is extracted as a byproduct from coal production. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama.

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)<--------

39.67+1.16(+3.01%)
At close: March 8 04:00PM EST
39.85+0.18(+0.45%)
Pre-Market:08:00AM EST

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Current-Quarter Estimate Revisions

The company is expected to earn $2.42 per share for the current quarter, which represents a year-over-year change of +2925%.

Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Warrior Met Coal has increased 101.67% because one estimate has moved higher compared to no negative revisions.
 
Current-Year Estimate Revisions

For the full year, the earnings estimate of $9.26 per share represents a change of +216.04% from the year-ago number.

The revisions trend for the current year also appears quite promising for Warrior Met Coal, with one estimate moving higher over the past month compared to one negative revision. The consensus estimate has also received a boost over this time frame, increasing 42.06%.//

This is back of the envelope stuff-- the stock 35.2% higher over the past four weeks, but Earn are between 42- 216% higher (Qtr & year) -- lets say !00%... so there is potentially 70% upside in this name.

Lets dial that back and say-- at least 30% gainer from here seems assured. <-------
 
Warrior Met Coal Inc: Brookwood, AL-based Warrior Met produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the global steel industry. The company produces coal from two highly productive underground mines in Alabama and has an estimated annual production capacity of more than 7 million metric tons of coal.
 
A Look At Warrior Met Coal's Liabilities
The latest balance sheet data shows that Warrior Met Coal had liabilities of US$122.1m due within a year, and liabilities of US$470.1m falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$404.3m as well as receivables valued at US$130.1m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$57.7m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

Since publicly traded Warrior Met Coal shares are worth a total of US$1.61b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Warrior Met Coal boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

Although Warrior Met Coal made a loss at the EBIT level, last year, it was also good to see that it generated US$265m in EBIT over the last twelve months. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Warrior Met Coal's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. Warrior Met Coal may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Happily for any shareholders, Warrior Met Coal actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last year. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.

Summing up
While it is always sensible to look at a company's total liabilities, it is very reassuring that Warrior Met Coal has US$64.5m in net cash. And it impressed us with free cash flow of US$294m, being 111% of its EBIT. So is Warrior Met Coal's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet.
 
The team at BofA lowered their 2022 gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts for the U.S. from 3.6% to 3.3% over the past week, and they now see Euro Area GDP growth falling to just 2.8% this year, compared to 3.5% in previous estimates. The analysts also bumped their 2022 inflation expectations for the U.S. and Euro Area to 7% and 6%, respectively.

However, strong savings rates, low unemployment, and energy independence will help the U.S. economy weather the storm better than most.
 
  • WHEAT AND OIL TURN OVER-!

SESSION HIGH FOR STONEY and it's only 8:55.... a man, a pipe... a dream.

This was yest and what a strange upgrade this is a HUGE PT jump higher than the dude who upgraded today to BUY with a small PT jump -- this guy jumps the Grand Canyon but leaves a neutral?

Warrior Met Coal price target raised to $50 from $36 at B. Riley 08:15 HCC B. Riley analyst Lucas Pipes raised the firm's price target on Warrior Met Coal to $50 from $36 and keeps a Neutral -WTF rating on the shares. The analyst believes an increased focus in Europe on diversifying imports away from Russia will lead to increased tightness in both the met and thermal coal seaborne markets Not only does Russia account for about two-thirds of European coal imports, but given the continent's reliance on Russian natural gas, the European Union could also turn to increased coal-fired generation to stabilize record-high power pricing, Pipes tells investors in a research note. He believes the challenges of energy security have "fundamentally recast the role coal plays as a major fuel in Europe and elsewhere."
 
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