While Snap remains deeply unprofitable based on generally accepted accounting principles
(GAAP), the company is finally approaching break-even free cash flow (FCF), burning only $7 million in cash over the last 12 months -- versus more than $700 million burned in 2018, for example.
Analysts forecast Snap to report that full-year FCF finally turned positive in 2021, and will grow rapidly toward $3.1 billion in real cash profits by 2025 -- meaning that Snap stock currently costs only about 13 times its cash profits three years from now.
It's beat down pretty bad isn't it? lol
Stoney all last month I saw whale-sized bets in the options markets on this thing. There was even a few yesterday too. I'm not talking a few million dollars, I mean big bets. Single leg type.
I think these analyst estimates have sandbagged the thing this time, and I think it's gonna smoke the numbers. And unlike FB, the conference call will be positive.
One thing no has mentioned across the various financial media outlets is the deal with Apple and IOS. Remember that? The stock got hammered, and class action lawsuits rolled in because the CEO had said it wouldn't hurt them, and later said it would.
Where am I going with this?
Somewhere way back when I read an in depth analysis of what was going on behind the scenes there, and in a nutshell it said they had a workaround that was "nearly completed" and would basically do what IOS had previously done before Apple changed things.
I'm thinking it's done, the whales know it, and it will come out in the CC tonight.
All that said, it's rare a stock drops like this and comes back anytime soon.
So.... they better have the earnings report from hell and a conference call for the ages.
Moving on...
Your dog Leslie Pools reports tonight. I thought about putting some in Granny's shorts at $21. I didn't. But I think it's going under $20 this time. Easy. Labor and supply chain will hurt. Plus... that stock is so overpriced even in a perfect world. I think it's gonna tank.
The Goose reports tonight. No opinion at $30. Are you still in? I'm not.
Deckers reports too.
It's always volatile on earnings.
It's at $326. Tough call. The forecasts look a little high to me. Not in line with Sketcher's using several metrics for comparison looking back 8 quarters. There's a slight disconnect.
Either Sketchers is set too low, or Deckers is set too high.
I think Deckers is too high, but that said, it has a long history of frying shorts so... too risky.
Ask Mrs Stoney if she likes Este Lauder. They had a decent report and the stock is down. ($EL)
That's usually a good stock.
$24.80 on SNAP now as I type. LOD
Who knows. I'm gonna ride it out.
It's only money right?