GBA Presents: THE GREEN MARKET
- Thread starter stonedinvestor
- Start date
Be patient let the market come to you...
Hey Overnight could you start your Saturn with any ole' key?
40 second mark- That's Van!!! Hands up white jacket.
" I seem to have relaxed into it. "
I think we are close to Bank earnings. Thank god. I think the next jobs report will be a large one breaking this streak of two underwhelming reports. That will give the Fed the green light to do whatever the Fed is thinking of doing... stop buying stuff.
We have this fiscal deadline now moved to I'm not sure when. December could find all of Biden's plans failing and us in the same mess with the politics and the debt limit. The US could again get a downgrade.
Earnings season is apt to be filled with the " logistics " excuse. How many companies will use it?
Earnings revisions are going the wrong way.
I was as surprised as anyone that people did not return to work when their special payments ran out... Could they just be coasting and now next time with the bills piling up they will return to the workforce?
England is a real shit show. Imagine no meat in the supermarket when you went...
Singapore is having a mysterious Covid break out despite having a population 85% vaccinated.
Yet here in the States and the NE we are winning the war. We are giving each other more space in the streets and overall activity is still way down. I think that's the difference between us and Singapore and we had a serious outbreak already, Singapore never had that first surge they went to immediate lock down. You may have to build a community resistance which is some combo of vaccinated AND people that got it and don't even know it. That's where NYC is at presently.
England is desperate for truck drivers. The EU breakaway fiasco... Brexit = No Truck drivers stupid! You have to think the auto-truck will start there! I'm not sure but i think TU Simple has good European exposure. There was also that other one.. damn.. what was it... One word... arrrg. European autonomous trucking was it... Damn it! ARRIUVE !!!! ARRIVE!!! ARRIVAL!
I did it again.!!!!
My memory has come back!
Arrival (ARVL)- This will be our buy we had this at $12 at some point..... I knew it!
NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
$14.46+0.83 (+6.09%)
We have this fiscal deadline now moved to I'm not sure when. December could find all of Biden's plans failing and us in the same mess with the politics and the debt limit. The US could again get a downgrade.
Earnings season is apt to be filled with the " logistics " excuse. How many companies will use it?
Earnings revisions are going the wrong way.
I was as surprised as anyone that people did not return to work when their special payments ran out... Could they just be coasting and now next time with the bills piling up they will return to the workforce?
England is a real shit show. Imagine no meat in the supermarket when you went...
Singapore is having a mysterious Covid break out despite having a population 85% vaccinated.
Yet here in the States and the NE we are winning the war. We are giving each other more space in the streets and overall activity is still way down. I think that's the difference between us and Singapore and we had a serious outbreak already, Singapore never had that first surge they went to immediate lock down. You may have to build a community resistance which is some combo of vaccinated AND people that got it and don't even know it. That's where NYC is at presently.
England is desperate for truck drivers. The EU breakaway fiasco... Brexit = No Truck drivers stupid! You have to think the auto-truck will start there! I'm not sure but i think TU Simple has good European exposure. There was also that other one.. damn.. what was it... One word... arrrg. European autonomous trucking was it... Damn it! ARRIUVE !!!! ARRIVE!!! ARRIVAL!
I did it again.!!!!
My memory has come back!Arrival (ARVL)- This will be our buy we had this at $12 at some point..... I knew it!
NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
$14.46+0.83 (+6.09%)
Unfortunately it was a spac... and they don't seem to do long haul trucks.
1. Arrival
Newly listed Arrival (it completed a merger with aSPACin March) has come up with an innovative way to make EVs more affordable by cutting production costs. Instead of conventional auto factories, Arrival is establishing the so-called "micro-factories" that require significantly less capital investment. Arrival's production process avoids stamping and welding, and its micro-factories won't have a paint shop. That's because Arrival's vehicle bodies are made of a composite material that uses polypropylene and glass fiber.
In addition to cost savings, the use of this material makes the vehicle lightweight compared to cars with steel bodies. London-based Arrival is right now setting up two micro-factories -- one in Rock Hill, South Carolina, and the other in Bicester, U.K.
Arrival, which specializes for now in delivery vans and passenger buses,has receivednonbinding orders and letters of intent for 59,000 vehicles. Around 43% of these are from the Americas, another 43% from Europe, and 14% from India. Overall, Arrival's conceptlooks interesting, but how it will work in terms of actual costs and performance remains to be seen. Notably, the start of commercial production has been delayed from the earlier expected fourth quarter of 2021 to the second quarter of 2022.
Arrival management has some ambitious targets in terms of sales andEBITDA. The company expects to generate $1 billion in sales in 2022. Importantly, management said the company can generate positive EBITDA in 2022 itself. According to management, its low-cost model will allow it to generate profits even at low volumes. Arrival management forecasts 2024 sales of $14.1 billion and gross profit of $3.7 billion. If it reaches anywhere near that sales number, the stock at today's price is a steal. Just be aware that this is a big "if."
1. Arrival
Newly listed Arrival (it completed a merger with aSPACin March) has come up with an innovative way to make EVs more affordable by cutting production costs. Instead of conventional auto factories, Arrival is establishing the so-called "micro-factories" that require significantly less capital investment. Arrival's production process avoids stamping and welding, and its micro-factories won't have a paint shop. That's because Arrival's vehicle bodies are made of a composite material that uses polypropylene and glass fiber.
In addition to cost savings, the use of this material makes the vehicle lightweight compared to cars with steel bodies. London-based Arrival is right now setting up two micro-factories -- one in Rock Hill, South Carolina, and the other in Bicester, U.K.
Arrival, which specializes for now in delivery vans and passenger buses,has receivednonbinding orders and letters of intent for 59,000 vehicles. Around 43% of these are from the Americas, another 43% from Europe, and 14% from India. Overall, Arrival's conceptlooks interesting, but how it will work in terms of actual costs and performance remains to be seen. Notably, the start of commercial production has been delayed from the earlier expected fourth quarter of 2021 to the second quarter of 2022.
Arrival management has some ambitious targets in terms of sales andEBITDA. The company expects to generate $1 billion in sales in 2022. Importantly, management said the company can generate positive EBITDA in 2022 itself. According to management, its low-cost model will allow it to generate profits even at low volumes. Arrival management forecasts 2024 sales of $14.1 billion and gross profit of $3.7 billion. If it reaches anywhere near that sales number, the stock at today's price is a steal. Just be aware that this is a big "if."
Back to Tu Simple--
9. TuSimple Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:TSP)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 14
Based on Cathie Wood's SEC 13F filings, the hedge fund owned 6,472,735shares of TuSimple Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:TSP) worth $461 million as of August 5, 2021. This represents 0.85% of the total holdings of ARK Investment Management. Cathie Wood started purchasing TuSimple Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:TSP) stock for two of her ETFs, ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (BATS:ARKQ) and ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK), on April 15, 2021, the same day the San Diego-based autonomous truck company went public.
On July 28, Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker kept TuSimple Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:TSP) at Overweight and raised his price target for the stock to $75 from $48, highlighting the company's dominant position in autonomous trucking.
In the second quarter of 2021, TuSimple Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:TSP) reported an EPS of -$0.64, missing estimates by -$0.25. The company's revenue in the second quarter increased to $1.48 million, up from $263,000 in the second quarter of 2020.
9. TuSimple Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:TSP)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 14
Based on Cathie Wood's SEC 13F filings, the hedge fund owned 6,472,735shares of TuSimple Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:TSP) worth $461 million as of August 5, 2021. This represents 0.85% of the total holdings of ARK Investment Management. Cathie Wood started purchasing TuSimple Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:TSP) stock for two of her ETFs, ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (BATS:ARKQ) and ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK), on April 15, 2021, the same day the San Diego-based autonomous truck company went public.
On July 28, Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker kept TuSimple Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:TSP) at Overweight and raised his price target for the stock to $75 from $48, highlighting the company's dominant position in autonomous trucking.
In the second quarter of 2021, TuSimple Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:TSP) reported an EPS of -$0.64, missing estimates by -$0.25. The company's revenue in the second quarter increased to $1.48 million, up from $263,000 in the second quarter of 2020.
What would most revolutionize logistics over the next few years? The most obvious answer is autonomous trucking. But when will this technology become operational? Will it take decades? A decade? Or can we get there in the next few years? That is the core question.
TuSimple - a provider of autonomous freight semi-truck solutions – has said their technology will be operational by 2024. Start-ups have been known to make extravagant claims. But TuSimple has gone public, is now being covered by the equity research firms, and over 5,700 vehicles have been reserved by sophisticated shippers or carriers in just the first four months. TuSimple’s timeline is looking more and more realistic.
TuSimple (NASDAQNDAQ-0.3%: TSP) offers a Level 4 autonomous solution. Level 5 is the top of the SAE autonomy scale; a level 5 solution can perform all driving tasks, under all conditions that a human driver could perform. A level 4 solution can conduct the driving task and monitor the driving environment, but the automated system can operate only under certain conditions.
In TuSimple’s case, “the certain conditions” it will operate in is the “middle mile.” The middle mile is not the “first mile” – the distance traveled between an origin, like a warehouse, and the highway. And it is not the “last mile” – the distance between an exit off a highway to a destination site – a factory, warehouse, or store for example. The TuSimple middle mile will be a terminal near an interstate to a terminal located not too far off an interstate exit.
Overcoming the technological challenges required to operate an autonomous truck has been daunting. TuSimple responded to the challenge be developing 240 patents and testing their trucks over 3.7 million miles. Their technology includes a 1,000-meter perception range, 35 second planning horizon, high-definition maps with accuracy within five centimeters, and a fully redundant sensor suite and components. The trucks are monitored in a cloud-based operations oversight center.
Hummmmm. Who Has Level 5 autonomous solution?
TuSimple - a provider of autonomous freight semi-truck solutions – has said their technology will be operational by 2024. Start-ups have been known to make extravagant claims. But TuSimple has gone public, is now being covered by the equity research firms, and over 5,700 vehicles have been reserved by sophisticated shippers or carriers in just the first four months. TuSimple’s timeline is looking more and more realistic.
TuSimple (NASDAQNDAQ-0.3%: TSP) offers a Level 4 autonomous solution. Level 5 is the top of the SAE autonomy scale; a level 5 solution can perform all driving tasks, under all conditions that a human driver could perform. A level 4 solution can conduct the driving task and monitor the driving environment, but the automated system can operate only under certain conditions.
In TuSimple’s case, “the certain conditions” it will operate in is the “middle mile.” The middle mile is not the “first mile” – the distance traveled between an origin, like a warehouse, and the highway. And it is not the “last mile” – the distance between an exit off a highway to a destination site – a factory, warehouse, or store for example. The TuSimple middle mile will be a terminal near an interstate to a terminal located not too far off an interstate exit.
Overcoming the technological challenges required to operate an autonomous truck has been daunting. TuSimple responded to the challenge be developing 240 patents and testing their trucks over 3.7 million miles. Their technology includes a 1,000-meter perception range, 35 second planning horizon, high-definition maps with accuracy within five centimeters, and a fully redundant sensor suite and components. The trucks are monitored in a cloud-based operations oversight center.
Hummmmm. Who Has Level 5 autonomous solution?